Ex-Rep. Bill Foster (D)
Even though the lines for
Illinois' new congressional districts have not even been passed into law yet, we're already seeing the dominoes start to fall.
The first splash is a big one:
Former Illinois congressman Bill Foster hopes to make a comeback by running for the proposed 11th Congressional District seat that would take in Aurora.
Foster, 55, filed papers Saturday with the Federal Election Commission. The Democrat and physicist from Batavia is expected to formally announce his bid in the 2012 election on Tuesday, a campaign spokesman said.
Foster, as you remember, won a competitive special election in 2008 to replace outgoing GOP House Speaker Denny Hastert in the 14th District, which up until that time was considered fairly safe Republican turf. He easily won re-election against dairy magnate Jim Oberweis later that year, but fell in the Republican wave of 2010 to state Senator Randy Hultgren.
The 11th District is currently occupied by GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who is considered something of a rising star in the Republican caucus, and a possible candidate for a statewide bid in the future. But the new 11th CD doesn't bear much resemblance to the one that Kinzinger is comfortable with. In his write-up of the new map (sub. req'd), David Wasserman explains:
IL-11 - In a true sleight of hand, Madigan moved the Burr Ridge home of wealthy Democratic insurance executive [John Atkinson] into a new solidly Democratic seat so as to remove a liberal primary threat to conservative southwest Chicago Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski (IL-03), Madigan's closest ally. The new seat, which includes Joliet, Aurora, parts of Naperville, and Bolingbrook, would have given Obama roughly 62 percent of the vote, making it just as Democratic as Lipinski's urban Chicago seat if not more so. This should be an easy pickup for Democrats, and Atkinson is likely to run here.
As Wasserman implies, we're looking at a seriously multi-dimensional game of music chairs between the current members of Illinois' Republican delegation and their potential challengers. Atkinson was geared up for a primary bid against Lipinski, but now has to give weight to the option of a primary against Foster in the newly-open 11th. Foster actually still lives in the old 14th District, but that seat is engineered to be a Republican vote-sink that invites a teabagger-on-teabagger primary between GOP Reps. Joe Walsh and Randy Hultgren. The local Beacon-News catches up with some other potential Democratic challengers for the new 11th CD, but most are either noncommittal or not interested in a run.
For the Republicans, Kinzinger's home was drawn into Jesse Jackson, Jr.'s super-Democratic seat, meaning that he'll have to shop around for a new district to run in, as the 11th looks too Democratic for him to be comfortable with. (And with twice as many Republican incumbents than there are GOP seats in the new plan, there's not a lot of prime real estate out there for him to choose from.) Some have suggested that Kinzinger may move back to his childhood home in the new 13th District (the swingiest of the seats in the new plan) for a run there, but it sounds like he may actually challenge veteran GOP Rep. Don Manzullo in the new 16th District:
Mapped out of his home territory by a new Democratic map, Republican U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger could be gearing up to run in a district stretching from Livingston County to Rockford.
In a note distributed Saturday, Livingston County Republican Party Chairman John McGlasson said Kinzinger may be planning to run in the newly drawn 16th Congressional District in the 2012 election.
That would set up a potential face-off against fellow GOP colleague Don Manzullo. Freshman Republican U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh of McHenry also may be angling for a shot in the 16th after Democrats drew him into a district with Republican U.S. Rep. Randy Hultgren of Winfield. [...]
In his note, McGlasson said Kinzinger “has called to say he intends to run for election in our new district.”
That's some pretty wild stuff, especially considering that most commenters up to this point have considered Manzullo the safest of the GOP incumbents from a primary challenge under the new map. And while Kinzinger has shown some obvious skill (his win over frosh Dem Rep. Debbie Halvorson in 2010 was decisively huge), I have to consider Manzullo to be the favorite in a primary. In any case, I'm looking forward to seeing the fruit of Republican-on-Republican violence that this new map has borne for us all.
UPDATE: Atkinson, reached for comment yesterday, is still undecided on his plans:
“I have serious policy differences with Dan Lipinski — I would prefer someone in that seat who wanted to work with the president,” Atkinson said Saturday.
But state Democratic leaders want Atkinson to win a new seat for Democrats in the 11th rather than challenge Lipinski, an ally of powerful state House Speaker Michael Madigan, who lives in the 3rd district.
Atkinson said Saturday he was still evaluating what to do.
“I’m not going to be rushed — this is not about who plants a flag first. This is about who puts together a campaign to be able to win,” he said.
Atkinson's use of tense ("wanted" as opposed to "wants"), and his comments about "planting the flag first" suggest (to me) that he's giving more thought to a run in the 11th than in the 3rd. That said, he isn't explicitly closing any doors, either.
This diary is brought to you by Daily Kos Elections, an official Daily Kos sub-site. Please read our
Mission Statement. Our focus is on electoral politics rather than policy. Welcome aboard!
