Rep. Paul Ryan and his "Path to Unpopularity." (Kevin Lamarque/REUTERS)
There's no question from previous polling and from the experience of Republican members of Congress in the past several weeks at town meetings that the public really hates the Republican budget. And when contrasted for voters with the Affordable Care Act, they really like the latter. That's the findings of
Anzalone Liszt Research for The Herndon Alliance and Protect Your Care, two progressive organizations working on preserving health reform.
Among the findings [pdf]:
- A majority of voters do not want the ACA repealed: Just 42% of voters want to see the new healthcare law repealed, with 56% preferring to either give it a chance to work and make changes as needed (48%) or to keep it as is (8%).
- Voters are even less supportive of defunding than repeal: If efforts to repeal the law in Congress fail, voters disapprove of defunding it by a 16-point margin (39% approve / 55% disapprove)....
- Voters overwhelmingly reject Ryan budget’s proposed changes to Medicare. After voters hear [a] neutral description of the Ryan plan’s proposed changes to Medicare, they oppose the budget by a 16-point margin (38% support / 54% oppose). Among seniors, opposition rises to 58%, and it reaches 60% among independents after they hear about the substance of the plan’s proposed changes to Medicare....
- Voters are just as concerned about the impact of the Ryan budget on certain aspects of Medicaid and the ACA as they are about its changes to Medicare. As concerned as voters are about the Ryan budget’s proposed changes to Medicare, they are just as opposed to its proposed Medicaid cuts that would impact four-out-of-five of nursing home residents (63% very concerned).
There is also strong concern that the budget would allow insurance companies to continue to deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions (61% very concerned). This is even higher than the concern caused by the budget cutting billions from Medicare while protecting tax breaks for big oil (59% very concerned), or that it will privatize Medicare (55% very concerned).
Greg Sargent followed up with pollster Jeff Liszt to find out what this means for Democrats currently trying to figure out how much they should trade away to appease the Republicans in debt ceiling negotiations, and "to ask whether his polling indicated that Dems could lose those advantages if they agree to a deficit reduction deal that cuts Medicare benefits and shifts costs to seniors. His answer was unequivocal."
“Agreeing to benefits cuts takes the foot off the gas in terms of going on the offensive against Republicans,” said Liszt, who did the poll for the Herndon Alliance and Know Your Care. “You have to draw a bright line somewhere and Medicare benefits are the best place to do that.”
Liszt pointed out that Republicans had made big gains in 2010 by accusing Dems of cutting Medicare in the Affordable Care Act, and said his new poll showed that Ryancare had enabled Dems to successfully rebuild trust with voters since then on health care and as defenders of the middle class. Liszt said that Republicans would continue to attack Dems from the left on Medicare no matter what they agree to in deficit talks, but warned that agreeing to actual Medicare benefits cuts could make it easier for Republicans to reverse their losses on the issue.
“Republicans are going to make the same argument irrespective of whether or not Democrats agree to more cuts,” he said. “But I still think [agreeing to benefits cuts] would be politicaly problematic for Democrats right now. They’re in a period where they’re building their advantage on health care issues. It’s an important component of the Democratic advantage on fighting for the middle class, which was central to Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008 and eroded in 2010.”
Said Liszt: “Benefits cuts could set that back.”
Given the poll's findings, echoed by Kaiser Family Foundation polling, cutting Medicaid benefits would also be very unpopular, though Medicare is where the Dems real political advantage lies. That is, if they resist benefit cuts.
A key takeaway from Liszt is this: “Republicans are going to make the same argument irrespective of whether or not Democrats agree to more cuts." They will always make the argument that Democrats are spending-happy. There's no way Dems will ever neutralize that talking point. They will also continue to blame Democrats for Medicare cuts, completely ignoring the fact that the Republican budget actually maintains those cuts.
That's what Republicans can do, but this new poll shows the way for Dems to respond: defending the Medicare provisions in the ACA, which stacks up very favorably in contrast to the Republican budget, but most importantly holding a very firm line against Medicare benefit cuts. For once, Dems need to forget about the potential mean ads Republicans might run against them and trust that they have public opinion on their side, and trust that they will win by taking the fight to the GOP.
