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Senate:
• FL-Sen: Mike Haridopolos continues to get flayed by right-wing radio host Ray Junior, who made Haridopolos look like an utter clown last week after he refused to answer Junior's simple question (repeated ten times) as to whether he supported the Ryan plan. Haridopolos' response was to claim he'd been "ambushed," which led to Junior branding his team "dirtbags" and "liars" on the air. Click through for the clip from Junior's show — he really lays into Haridopolos (and deservedly so).
• IN-Sen: I don't know that it saved anyone's ass in the end, but one of the few topics where Dems gained any traction last year was with the so-called (but not at all) "fair tax," a teabagger favorite which calls for instituting an extremely regressive 23% national sales tax on just about everything. Attack ads accusing Republicans of wanting to institute this tax would always draw hilariously whiny howls of, "That's not fair! We'd be lowering other taxes!" Uh huh. Well, you're free to explain that. On your own time. We're not gonna make your case for you, no matter how badly you and Politifact wish we would.
Anyhow, I mention all this because none other than Dick Lugar has embraced this national sales tax, which has never made it out of committee. (I might also add that this doomed idea's main proponent retired from the House last year: former Georgia Rep. John Linder.) If Lugar survives his primary from Treasurer Richard Mourdock, Democrat Joe Donnelly will have yet another good issue ready-made to hammer him with.
• MI-Sen: Oakland County Water Resources Commissioner (yes, that's an elected job) John McCulloch says he's "seriously looking at" a run against Sen. Debbie Stabenow. McCulloch was chair of the Oakland Co. Commission prior to his current post, which is actually not an insignificant post. Meanwhile, conservative radio host Frank Beckmann told his fans they shouldn't "wait for an announcement" from him, though he didn't completely close the door on a possible run. Beckmann has a longtime public profile as a sports broadcaster, so he doesn't exactly fit into the Sean Hannity mold.
• MO-Sen: State Rep. Stacey Newman (D), described by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch as "the chief critic" of the state's proposed voter ID laws, makes a very good point:
"The proposed voter ID requirements would not stop the type of fraud allegedly committed by [Rep. Todd] Akin," Newsman said in a statement Wednesday. "It would only address voter impersonation at the polling place, which has never been reported in Missouri."
For the backstory on the new Akin saga, check out last Wednesday's Daily Digest.
• TX-Sen, TX-33: Former Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, a teabagger fave, is apparently likely to quit the crowded Senate race in favor of a House campaign. Ex-Solicitor General Ted Cruz seems to be hoovering up most of the big teabaggish endorsements, and a Williams consultant says his house is in a brand-new congressional district, so the move makes sense. I'm not sure which seat, though, and Apparently he's interested in the new TX-33, but of course the new map could very well change before it gets passed into law (see redistricting bullet below).
House:
• IL-17: Usually when a guy drops a bunch of weight, it means he's thinking about making a run for office. This time, though, it's the opposite: retirement seems to be agreeing with ex-Rep. Phil Hare, who says he's lost 75 pounds and in general is just a lot healthier — and adds that he won't seek his old seat back. Hare does say he plans to stay involved in politics and to unseat the Republican who beat him, Bobby Schilling.
The linked article also mentions the names of several possible Dems who could replace Hare, including state Sen. David Koehler and East Moline Alderwoman Cheri Bustos, both of whom Hare spoke well of, according to the Quad-City Times. Koehler says he's "looking at" the race and also told the Peoria Journal Star that he expects to decide in a few days; Dave Catanese says Koehler is a DC fave. Meanwhile, Bustos says she's forming an exploratory committee, and the article also mentions that two others are in the "considering" phase, former Rock Island mayor Mark Schwiebert and former state Rep. Mike Boland. Reader AK sums it up to me via email:
Boland is already 68, but he did run for LG last year, only to lose to Scott Lee Cohen in the primary. I imagine Bustos would get EMILY's List backing. Schwiebert lost to Hare in the rigged selection of Lane Evans's successor and Koehler is a former minister, which could play well in the rural areas of the district.
• IN-05: I think this is actually good news… for Dan Burton! Former three-term Rep. David McIntosh, a member of the GOP class of `94, says he's considering a run against Burton — even though McIntosh previously represented the 6th CD, his home is now in the newly-redrawn 5th. I say that it's a positive for Burton because the guy who nearly defeated him in 2008, John McGoff, is already in the race, and Burton only survived last year because, as Elections readers well know, the field against him was badly fractured.
• NC-13: The NRCC has a spot up (backed by a buy that I'm sure is at least big enough to buy a five dollar footlong at Subway) attacking Dem Rep. Brad Miller for his vote on the GOP's garbagey, fakey debt ceiling ploy. Who knows — maybe this theme will work. But the NRCC's choice of targets is unusual, since Republicans are pretty determined to either throw Miller into a primary with Rep. David Price, or stick him in as red a district as possible. Does this mean the GOP thinks Miller could be a threat even in a new, more Republican district? They also launched robocalls on the same topic, hitting several other folks whose district status is questionable, including Russ Carnahan, Rush Holt, and Mark Critz. What gives?
• NE-02: Dave Wasserman mentions (behind paywall) two possible Dem names who could take on Rep. Lee Terry: Howard W. Buffett, grandson of Warren Buffett (the "W." in this case stands for Warren), and Douglas County Treasurer John Ewing, a retired police officer who in 2006 was apparently the first African American ever elected to countywide office. More background here on Buffett, who is only 27 years old.
• NV-03: Oops: Freshman GOP Rep. Joe Heck told a town hall last month that Social Security is a "pyramid scheme"… and now video of the event has come to light (thanks to the NVDP), complete with disgusted groans from constituents. Once he started getting pummeled over his remarks, Heck told Jon Ralston he "misspoke," which I think is code for "I got caught saying what I actually believe" aka a Kinsley gaffe.
• NY-23: One link, two pieces of news. First is that businessman Matt Doheny, who is already seeking the Republican nomination, is busy trying to woo the Conservative Party as well. Last year, he narrowly lost to Rep. Bill Owens because he split the right-wing vote with Doug Hoffman, who had the Con line. And speaking of, that brings us to item two: Hoffman says he's thinking about running a third time, but is awaiting the outcome of redistricting before making up his mind. Hoffman didn't live in the district when he ran in the 2009 special, but bought a house in the 23rd in 2010 — a house that he's been busy trying to sell. So it sounds like he won't try again unless he gets drawn into the district (though I suppose he could run elsewhere).
• WI-02: State Rep. Mark Pocan says he is "seriously considering a run" for Rep. Tammy Baldwin's seat, if she makes the leap to the Senate race. Like Baldwin, Pocan is gay, and says that DC-based LGBT activists are interested in his candidacy.
Other Races:
• Las Vegas Mayor: A new poll out from UNLV finds Carolyn Goodman leading Chris Giunchigliani by 48-30. Election day is this Tuesday.
Grab Bag:
• Votes: The breakdowns on two Libya-related votes (roll calls 411 & 412) last week in the House are pretty unusual and, particularly on the second one, most decidedly do not fall along party lines.
Redistricting Roundup:
• California: CA's new independent redistricting commission released what looks like rough drafts of maps, but these are probably very tentative. Actual "first drafts" will be published on June 10 (you'll find them here), and final maps are due by Aug. 15.
• Illinois: Gov. Pat Quinn signed the new Dem-passed legislative map into law but has not yet signed its congressional counterpart.
• Nevada: After an apparently unexpected (and big) compromise between the Dem-held legislature and GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval on the budget, some folks made noises suggesting that the parties could also compromise on a new redistricting plan. But now, pretty much everyone says that time has run out, since the legislative session ends today.
• Texas: A state Senate committee passed the new redistricting plan along party lines (apparently without alterations) sending it to the full chamber for consideration. However, the House's co-author of the plan says there's a "100% chance" that we'll see changes to the map before it becomes law. UPDATE: Actually, the Senate plan did contain some changes. The new map is called C136 and is apparently very similar to C130, which Charles Kuffner analyzed over the weekend. It mostly alters the new TX-36 and also TX-14, Ron Paul's district.
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