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Senate:
• FL-Sen: Politico says that former steakhouse CEO and 2010 FL-24 GOP primary loser Craig Miller is now "leaning toward" a Senate run and is in DC meeting with Republican bigs. In late April, Miller said he'd make up his mind "within the next few weeks," so he's getting down to decision time if he plans to stick to his timetable.
Gubernatorial:
• IA-Gov: One of these days, PPP will release a new poll that does not qualify as "even worse news" for a Republican officeholder — but that day is not today. Summer intern Michael Sadowsky pens his first post over at PPP's blog, informing us that Terry Branstad's job approval has sunk to 39-47, down from 41-45 in April.
• KY-Gov: Dem Gov. Steve Beshear has a new ad out touting his budget-balancing credentials, though the campaign isn't saying how big the buy is and the ad doesn't appear to be available on Beshear's YouTube account. If you see a link anywhere, please let us know.
• WA-Gov: Shocking, I know: After what I think can fairly be called years of anticipation, Republican AG Rob McKenna will finally launch his campaign for governor today, according to Dave Catanese.
House:
• CA-36: Hrm… Politico is claiming that internal polling has Democrat Janice Hahn up only five points over Craig Huey in the special election, and that Hahn's campaign "declined to confirm" the numbers. I guess that means they also declined to deny them?
• IL-12: Another unusual choice by the NRCC. This time, they're spending about $20K on TV ads trying to accuse Rep. Jerry Costello of "bankrupting Medicare." Despite getting lacerated on Medicare due to the Ryan plan (or perhaps because they're getting lacerated), the GOP has been attempting to attack Democrats here and there of the sin which they themselves are guilty of. It's a classic Rovian move, but it doesn't seem to be gaining any traction in the media — and that's what these early, tiny buys are all about.
• MN-08: Ex-Rep. Richard Nolan, who left Congress in 1980 after serving three terms but has been talking about a comeback bid this cycle, tells Stuart Rothenberg he's "'99 percent' likely to run." Nolan represented a district which snaked from the southwestern part of the state to the very middle (see map), but originally hails from Brainerd, which is in GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack's 8th CD. However, there are already two Democrats in the race, Duluth Councilman Jeff Anderson and ex-state Sen. Tarryl Clark, but what's more, the fate of this district is now in the hands of the courts.
• NY-09: If Anthony Weiner were to step down — or to not get redistricted into oblivion and face a semi-serious GOP challenge next year — who could run against him? City Hall News suggests City Councilman Eric Ulrich, state court judge (and former councilman) Noach Dear, and 2010 candidate Bob Turner, a self-funding businessman who pulled in 41% of the vote last year.
Other Races:
• WI Recall: Looks like the GOP is going all-in on its plan to run fake candidates in Democratic primaries to delay the recall elections. State Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald said he fully supports the plan ("It gives us another month to campaign"), and local GOPers have recruited some huckleberry to run in the primary against Democrat Shelly Moore, who is challenging Sen. Sheila Harsdorf. I believe that makes three such dweebs that we know about, but it sounds like Republicans aim to do it in all six GOP recalls. (Hat-tip: Taniel)
Meanwhile, Rep. Sandy Pasch just launched the first salvo in the recall air wars, slamming GOPer Alberta Darling for cutting education to give tax cuts to the wealthy. You can see the spot here.
Grab Bag:
• EMILY: Three more candidates just got endorsements from EMILY's List: Tarryl Clark (MN-08), Kate Marshall (NV-02), and Elizabeth Esty (CT-05).
• Maps: This is a seriously cool interactive map from CUNY's Center for Urban Research, showing ethnic group changes in the NYC region from 2000 to 2010. Be sure to play with the slider bar in the middle. (And it really does work better in Chrome, as the pop-up warns you.) More background here, plus a sortable table and block-level maps.
• State Leges: The exceedingly useful Ballotpedia has a helpful roundup of which states are still in the midst of their regular legislative sessions (just 16, though three will wrap this week), and which are conductive special sessions (three, with two more on the way). Useful for keeping watch on when redistricting might take place.
• WADN?: That is, Where Are the Douchebags Now? Why, the US Chamber of Commerce, of course. Ex-Sen. Evan Bayh just took a job to shill for this most corporatist of front groups. But he's only staying true to the promise he made when he explained why he was leaving the Senate last year: "I want to be engaged in an honorable line of work."
Redistricting Roundup:
• Nevada: It's dead, Jim: As expected, the Nevada legislature adjourned without reaching any agreement on redistricting maps. Unless a very unlikely compromise happens and the governor calls a special session, this one will get decided in the courts.
• Oregon: Meanwhile, Democrats and Republicans have pulled off that unlikeliest of compromises and are near an agreement on a legislative map (which you can see here). There's still no sign of a possible deal on a congressional map, though perhaps once the state plan gets resolved, legislators will return their focus to federal matters.
• South Carolina: A state House plan passed the GOP's redistricting maps (both legislative and congressional), and now they'll go before the full chamber.
• Texas: The full state Senate passed the Republican-backed congressional plan along strictly party lines, moving the map to the House. Charles Kuffner has some partisan breakdowns for the new districts.
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