A few people have asked, and I'm going to tell you why I try to stay quiet and leave climate change alone. It's because people call me a denier, even though I'm not. I don't say what people want to hear, so they shut down and don't want to listen.
I'm tired of the fearmongering, I'm tired of the gigantic leaps of logic, I'm tired of people on both sides of the issue shutting down and not listening. I ask that you listen to what I have to say, and then I'll listen to you.
I believe that climate change is real. It is happening every day, but not as rapidly as The Day After Tomorrow. I believe that storms will gradually get more intense as the years go by. People have used the recent tornado outbreaks to say that climate change is here, it's real and we'd better get used to EF-5 tornadoes wiping out our cities. I don't buy that. Tornado outbreaks happen. It sounds stupid of me to say that, but they just happen. 1920, 1925, 1932, 1965, 1974, 1992, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2008 and 2008 again, and then the tornadoes this year. These outbreaks aren't some new fad, they're just there. This year happened to be really bad.
Edit 8:17PM Eastern: The above list has caused much confusion for some. It is not an exhaustive list of tornado outbreaks, it's anything but. The above info was off the top of my head. For a complete list of tornado outbreaks, visit this link.
I've said it a few times (much to the dismay of many), but the tornadoes this year do not indicate a growing trend. If we have numerous tornado oubreaks of this intensity in the decade, THEN it's a worrying trend. Until then, stop with the talking point positioning. We know climate change is happening, but to say that the tornadoes were a direct result without the trend of tornado outbreaks with this intensity to back it up is a really big freakin' leap.
If this shit happens again next year, and the year after that, I'll go into full mea culpa mode. But until then, stop it. It weakens our argument to scream "CLIMATE CHANGE ZOMG!" every time something bad happens. It takes trends over years to make this argument. Trends equal climate, events equal weather.
Earlier today someone posted a diary saying that the heat burst in Wichita, KS this week was "the beginning" of some more nefarious climate stuff happening. No it's not! As I said in the diary's comments, heat bursts are a well documented natural phenomenon that's happened ever since thunderstorms started. The tl;dr explanation is that dry air got into the thunderstorm as it collapsed (all the rain/hail upstairs falls down at once because the storm can't support it anymore), and the rain evaporated and made the dry air cooler. As it got cooler, it got denser, and fell to the ground. As it fell, it compressed and heated up, hit the ground, made the temperatures rise in a hurry and created 50-60 MPH winds.
That's it. That's what happened. It didn't happen because the oceans are warming or the ice caps are melting or because BP fucking sucks. It happened because the updraft could no longer support a column of precipitation, it fell, heated up and dispersed at ground level. It's not climate change and it weakens our argument to call it climate change, so stop it. Just because you don't understand why something is happening doesn't mean you should run to the nearest public forum and shout the first thing that comes to your mind.
Think before you speak. Please, for the love of FSM, stop trying to link every extreme to climate change. The ice caps are melting, the oceans are rising, and all sorts of other scary shit is happening, but not every single event is due to the climate's change. If all of this stuff is happening due to climate change, we don't yet have the trends to back it up. Wait until we do. Until then, warn about the dangers of climate change, don't say everything happened because of it.
The floor is yours. Falme away, discuss away, just be civil.
12:39 PM PT: Sam Wise Gingy sums it up in the comments below: "Are you saying we should be reasonable rather than reactionary?" That's exactly what I'm saying.
