Steve Bullock
Public Policy Polling (6/16-19, Montana voters, Nov. 2010 in parens):
Steve Bullock (D): 37 (31)
Rick Hill (R): 39 (41)
Undecided: 23 (28)
Steve Bullock (D): 38
Jeff Essmann (R): 33
Undecided: 28
Steve Bullock (D): 38
Ken Miller (R): 34
Undecided: 28
John Bohlinger (D): 39
Rick Hill (R): 40
Undecided: 21
John Bohlinger (D): 40
Jeff Essmann (R): 33
Undecided: 28
John Bohlinger (D): 39
Ken Miller (R): 33
Undecided: 28
Dave Wanzenried (D): 30
Rick Hill (R): 40
Undecided: 30
Dave Wanzenried (D): 31
Jeff Essmann (R): 33
Undecided: 36
Dave Wanzenried (D): 30
Ken Miller (R): 35
Undecided: 35
(MoE: ±3.4%)
There's only one (very ancient) trendline here, which I've placed at the top — the field was just too unknown when PPP first went into the field here, all the way back in Nov. of last year. Still, I think it's interesting that state AG Steve Bullock, whose name rec went up only ten points in this time, and who is still only in the "considering" phase, narrowed the gap considerably between himself and ex-Rep. Rick Hill.
Tom attributes Bullock's relatively strong showing to outgoing Gov. Brian Schweitzer's high approvals, but Schweitzer's numbers were actually better last fall (55-33 vs. 52-38). Perhaps Democrats were still a bit shell-shocked, since prior survey was taken right after the 2010 debacle, and are now feeling more energized, as we've seen in many states. (The only problem with this theory is that the corresponding Senate numbers haven't budged.)
I should also note that Hill's name recognition went up about ten points as well, so the reasons for the positive shift toward Democrats here is a bit murky. Regardless, it's good to see Team Blue looking more competitive here. Now we just need one of our two better-known candidates — either Bullock or Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger — to pull the trigger.
