This isn't exactly breaking news, but it hasn't been diaried yet that I can see. Over the July 4 weekend, there was a huge victory for democracy, a huge victory for left-wing populism in Southeast Asia's second largest economy of Thailand.
BANGKOK — The party of the fugitive former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra won an overwhelming victory in a parliamentary election on Sunday that could turn Thai politics on its head and roll back the results of a coup that ousted Mr. Thaksin almost five years ago.
Background: In 2001, Thaksin Shinawatra was elected President of Thailand in one of the most open, corruption-free elections in Thai history. The country was still reeling from the Asian Financial crisis. Thaksin set himself up as a champion of the rural poor, particularly in the country's long marginalized north where people never before had a voice or felt like they could influence politics.
Thaksin introduced universal health care for the first time in Thailand, instituted a 3-year debt moratorium for farmers, low interest loans to the poor, and gave locally managed development funds for all villages. Within four years, the poverty rate had been cut in half. Thailand repaid its IMF loans two years ahead of schedule, and the gini coefficient reversed a long uptrend to fall significantly.
Thaksin won the loyalty of poor and rural Thais in the north and in the slums of Bangkok, but he alienated the country's traditional elite, the military, and the monarchy, as well as the middle class and the university students. In 2005 he was reelected in a landslide, but convicted of corruption and in 2006 the military launched a coup against him. In 2008 there were more elections with Thaksin's party won. Over the last 10 years there have been four elections, all of which have been won by Thaksin's backers.
Thaksin has since 2006 been in exile because of convictions for corruption that have resulted in jail sentences for both him and his wife. But he remains popular among Thailand's poor "Red Shirts", the base of the populist Pheu Thai (PT) party.
Thailand has been torn by violence and demonstrations since 2006, with extremely polarized politics and dysfuncitonal democracy. Thakins won deep loyalty for his reforms, and his loyal backers are the "red shirts" who protested in Bangkok in 2010, almost shutting down the city. The response from the army was a massacre.
In 2011 Thaksin chose his sister, the charismatic 44 year old Yingluck Shinawatra, to carry his banner. He calls her "my clone." Yingluck Shinawatra is a businesswoman with no political experience, she received a Master's Degree in public administration from Kentucky State University. She will become the first female Prime Minister of Thailand. It was feared that if the elections of 2011 were close, it could result in more problems, or even another coup.
That does not appear to be happening.
The reason is the overwhelming size of the victory of Shinawatra's party, Pheu Thai. With high 75% turnout, it has won the biggest landslide in Thai history, and has an absolute majority in Parliament. The military appears to have accepted the result.
Ms Yingluck won by promising to continue the populist economic programs of her brother, like raising the minimum wage, and providing electronic devices to a million school children.
The economist characteris it thusly:
Some red shirts thus see the election results thus see the election result as more than just a victory for PT. They see it as a vital triumph for democracy itself, in a country with a history of coups and an overbearing monarchy that is protected by strict lese-majeste laws.
As Prime Minister, Mr Thaksin championed the cause of the rural poor, mainly in the north. He introduced various effective and popular anti-poverty programs, among them subsidies universal health care and microcredit scheme for farmers. The beneficiaries have loyally stuck with him and his party, creating a strong grassroots political base for Pheu Thai.
Yingluck proved a great campaigner in her own right.
The election shows Thailand's rural poor can't be ignored. Let's hope the army respects this result. Good luck to Yingluck.
