MI-Sen: Stabenow leads all GOP comers
As was the case in much of the industrial Midwest last year, the Democrats took an absolute beating in Michigan. Rick Snyder's decisive win over Virg Bernero in the gubernatorial election, coupled with two lost House seats and a handful of near-misses, left many to wonder if the GOP was going to be able to play in the state in 2012. After all, Barack Obama easily carried the state in 2008, so much so that the GOP abandoned the state weeks in advance of the election.
New numbers out today from PPP suggest that while Democrats might not be right at 2006/2008 levels in Michigan, they are still in a pretty enviable position heading into the 2012 election cycle. Both the president and the incumbent senator up for reelection (Debbie Stabenow, pictured at right) lead all comers in their latest poll.
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (7/21-7/24. Michigan voters. March results in parentheses)
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 50 (50)
Peter Hoekstra (R) 41 (38)
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 52 (52)
Randy Hekman (R) 36 (33)
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 52 (--)
John McCulloch (R) 32 (--)
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 52 (--)
Peter Konetchy (R) 31 (--)
Republicans did a little Snoopy dance last week with the news that former Rep. Peter Hoekstra (who finished second to Snyder in last year's GOP gubernatorial primary) had reconsidered a previous decision to stay out of the 2012 U.S. Senate picture. The nameless, faceless trio that PPP also polled might go a long way towards explaining that excitement for Hoekstra, who at least carries some name rec from last year's bid.
The survey, however, shows that Stabenow still holds a reasonably solid lead over Hoekstra, and sports a job approval rating that is above the Mendoza line (46/40), though it is hardly anything that folks would categorize as "strong" or "formidable." Hoekstra starts out as the best-known of the GOP field (61 percent name recognition), but the reaction of the Michigan electorate is the textbook definition of "meh" (31/30).
Meanwhile, in the contest for the state's 16 electoral votes, Democrats start out in the driver's seat, with or without quasi-native son Mitt Romney on the ballot for the GOP.
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (7/21-7/24. Michigan voters. March results in parentheses)
Barack Obama (D) 47 (48)
Mitt Romney (R) 42 (41)
Barack Obama (D) 50 (--)
Rick Perry (R) 35 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 53 (--)
Michele Bachmann (R) 37 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 50 (--)
Herman Cain (R) 33 (--)
Barack Obama (D) 54 (55)
Sarah Palin (R) 36 (35)
Barack Obama (D) 50 (--)
Thad McCotter (R) 31 (--)
Michigan is a rare state in that a GOP candidate actually fares worse than the largely reviled Sarah Palin. Compounding the wound for said candidate (Rep. Thad McCotter) is that he actually hails from Michigan. The local boy is little-known (58 percent have no opinion), and those that know him generally don't like him (13/29 spread on the fav versus unfav question).
Romney, with a pretty solid reservoir of goodwill in the state from his dad's time there, is the only Republican who seems likely to make this state into a real contest. If the GOP looks elsewhere for a nominee, the Republicans could be shuttering their operations in September again. Should that happen, it could be curtains not only for the eventual Senate nominee, but also a handful of Republican House members seeking to keep their seats.