Public Policy Polling (PDF) (7/28-31, Vermont voters, no trendlines):
Bernie Sanders (I-inc): 56
Jim Douglas (R): 38
Undecided: 6
Bernie Sanders (I-inc): 60
Brian Dubie (R): 34
Undecided: 6
Bernie Sanders (I-inc): 61
Phil Scott (R): 30
Undecided: 9
Bernie Sanders (I-inc): 62
Tom Salmon (R): 28
Undecided: 10
Bernie Sanders (I-inc): 62
Mark Snelling (R): 25
Undecided: 13
Bernie Sanders (I-inc): 63
Thom Lauzon (R): 24
Undecided: 13
Bernie Sanders (I-inc): 65
Randy Brock (R): 28
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ±2.8%)
I think this may be PPP's first ever poll of Vermont — and it may also be their last, at least for a while. Tom does raise an interesting side point, though:
There is a broader takeaway though — Vermont loves its politicians. There aren't a lot of states where 5 potential Senate challengers would all have positive favorability ratings yet still get trounced in head to heads because the incumbent is so transcendently popular. We've seen similar things in states like Wyoming and Delaware- smaller states just tend to be a lot more kind to their politicians than the bigger ones.
I wonder if there is something else — not necessarily mutually exclusive — going on here as well, though. It may not just be small states but heavily one-party states, oddly enough, where politicians are unusually well-liked. Tom almost alludes to it here:
Sanders' approval rating is 67% with only 28% of voters disapproving of him. That +39 spread ranks him third in popularity out of 85 sitting Senators PPP has polled on, behind only Hawaii's Daniel Inouye (+46 at 69/23) and Wyoming's John Barrasso (+44 at 69/25). Sanders enjoys near universal popularity with Democrats (93/5), is extremely well liked by independents (68/25), and even has an unusually high level of crossover popularity with Republicans. 25% of them approve of him to 69% disapproving.
Look at that list of states: HI, VT, WY — all at the extremes. Yes, I know, blue Vermont loves Bernie Sanders and red Wyoming loves John Barrasso. But Sanders is liked by 25% of Republicans — and, as importantly, Barrasso is liked by an impressive 33% of Democrats. Meanwhile, Inouye has a positive job approval rating among Republicans, 47-43, which is almost impossible to believe… but there it is.
So what's up? Is there some kind of Stockholm syndrome going on in small states dominated by a single party? Are (at least some) opposite-party voters in such states just heavily influenced by the majority party? Is the sample size too small? What's the deal here?