I recently had a conversation with someone who said the VRA was outdated and communities of interest only work to help the Democratic party. So I decided to redistrict Texas in manner that is purely partisan, one which ignores the VRA and communities of interest. A hyperly partisan example of what could happen if the conservatives overturn the VRA and Democrats win back Texas on all levels. Of course if the Democrats won back Texas many more Democratic districts could be made due to shifts in the state which are necessary for those victories. The population deviation for each district is less than +/- 1000.
I am only listing the VAP of each district unless it may impact the outcome of an election in the future, however take note every single district is trending towards the minority population. Because the 2004 Presidential elections aren't available in DRA I calculated the PVI with the 2008 numbers. I think the 2008 numbers may be more accurate than people think because Texas had been the home state of George W Bush and that favorite son status probably shifted Texas overall a few points to the right in 2004 and 2000. Generally speaking I used 59% Obama as a cut off for a Safe D district (with one exception) because Lloyd Dogget's (current CD-10) district voted 59% for Obama and that appears to be a safe district, likewise the 53% Obama district held by Blake Farenthold elected him with just a few hundred votes in 2010. All the districts are contiguous and not with that "point touch" contiguity because I can not stand that.
The presence of 18 Obama districts ranging from 59.0% to 64.3% leads each Republican vote sink to have blood red PVIs ranging from R+20 to R+33, seven of the most Republican districts in the country would be in Texas. Communities of interest need not apply here. Due to the nature of the districts the common geographic terms of West Texas, North Texas, Central Texas, etc tend to break down. I tried my best to describe each district accurately.
In case you are unfamiliar with the acronyms
VRA = Voting Rights Act
VAP = Voting Age Population (those who are 18 years and older)
DRA = Daves Redistricting Application (the program this map was created on)
PVI = Partisan Voting Index (how a district leans relative to the country as a whole, so D+7 means a district votes 7 percentage points more Democratic on average than the U.S. as a whole)
Greater El Paso area
CD-16
El Paso is difficult to unpack given how it is geographically located. With that said it shouldn't be unpacked too much. It is drawn in this manner to help strengthen neighboring CD-23. El Paso is the major population center.
| CD-16 |
| White |
17.6% |
| Black |
3.1% |
| Hispanic |
76.9% |
| Asian |
1.4% |
| Obama |
64.3% |
| McCain |
35.7% |
| Dem |
60.8% |
| Rep |
39.2% |
| PVI |
D+11 |
| Safe D |
CD-23 stretches from El Paso to San Antonio and down to Laredo. It shifts significantly towards the Democrats Canseco would lose. The major population center is Laredo.
| CD-23 |
| White |
17.0% |
| Black |
1.1% |
| Hispanic |
80.3% |
| Asian |
0.9% |
| Obama |
60.1% |
| McCain |
39.9% |
| Dem |
60.7% |
| Rep |
39.3% |
| PVI |
D+6 |
| Safe D |
West Texas and North Texas
CD-13 is one of my favorites because it shows how much of the west Texas population is really concentrated in a few cities. Here the population centers are Lubbock, Midland, Odessa and Amarillo.
| CD-13 |
| White |
59.3% |
| Black |
6.1% |
| Hispanic |
31.2% |
| Asian |
2.1% |
| Obama |
27.3% |
| McCain |
72.7% |
| Dem |
26.5% |
| Rep |
73.5% |
| PVI |
R+24 |
| Safe R |
CD-11 is the most Republican in the country. It is entirely rural, the population centers are very small cities and towns throughout the district. Imagine the primaries for the Republican nomination here. Despite it's heavy Republican roots the district is currently 30.9% hispanic and the total hispanic population is 35.5%.
| CD-11 |
| White |
63.7% |
| Black |
3.6% |
| Hispanic |
30.9% |
| Asian |
0.6% |
| Obama |
21.1% |
| McCain |
78.9% |
| Dem |
26.8% |
| Rep |
73.2% |
| PVI |
R+33 |
| Safe R |
Fort Worth exurbs and Wichita Falls make CD-31 another blood red district.
| CD-31 |
| White |
81.9% |
| Black |
3.7% |
| Hispanic |
11.8% |
| Asian |
1.0% |
| Obama |
24.3% |
| McCain |
75.7% |
| Dem |
29.4% |
| Rep |
70.6% |
| PVI |
R+29 |
| Safe R |
CD-36 consists of Sherman-Denison and Dallas exurbs.
| CD-36 |
| White |
75.6% |
| Black |
6.3% |
| Hispanic |
15.3% |
| Asian |
0.9% |
| Obama |
29.3% |
| McCain |
70.7% |
| Dem |
30.3% |
| Rep |
69.7% |
| PVI |
R+24 |
| Safe R |
CD-19 is another very rural district. It includes San Angelo and Abilene. The district also includes conservative parts of Williamson county.
| CD-19 |
| White |
73.5% |
| Black |
4.0% |
| Hispanic |
20.1% |
| Asian |
1.0% |
| Obama |
26.8% |
| McCain |
73.2% |
| Dem |
26.9% |
| Rep |
73.1% |
| PVI |
R+27 |
| Safe R |
South Texas
CD-15 has most of it's population in Hidalgo County, even though the boundaries shift around it has almost the same partisan breakdown as it is currently drawn.
| CD-15 |
| White |
17.8% |
| Black |
1.8% |
| Hispanic |
78.8% |
| Asian |
1.1% |
| Obama |
60.4% |
| McCain |
39.6% |
| Dem |
61.2% |
| Rep |
38.8% |
| PVI |
D+7 |
| Safe D |
CD-27 has most of its population in Hidalgo and Cameron County. It also incorporates the republican parts of Corpus Christi to help neighboring CD-28.
| CD-27 |
| White |
17.8% |
| Black |
1.8% |
| Hispanic |
78.8% |
| Asian |
1.1% |
| Obama |
60.4% |
| McCain |
39.6% |
| Dem |
61.2% |
| Rep |
38.8% |
| PVI |
D+6 |
| Safe D |
No matter how I tried I couldn't get CD-28 up to a level where I would consider it safe D. Farenthold would probably choose to run here, however this district is three points to the left of Farenthold's current district and with his razor thin margin in 2010 he would be hard pressed to win. Based on the demographics and the overall Dem and Rep averages I think it would be safe D, but it just misses the mark with the overall PVI.
| CD-28 |
| White |
30.3% |
| Black |
6.6% |
| Hispanic |
61.3% |
| Asian |
1.0% |
| Obama |
55.8% |
| McCain |
44.2% |
| Dem |
56.7% |
| Rep |
43.3% |
| PVI |
D+2 |
| Likely D |
CD-8 is another GOP vote sink, it includes College Station, parts of Montgomery county and rural areas of Texas between Austin and Houston.
| CD-8 |
| White |
70.6% |
| Black |
7.1% |
| Hispanic |
18.0% |
| Asian |
3.0% |
| Obama |
27.7% |
| McCain |
72.3% |
| Dem |
27.4% |
| Rep |
72.6% |
| PVI |
R+26 |
| Safe R |
Greater San Antonio area
San Antonio based CD-20. In a hyperly gerrymandered map this district looks relatively clean. Rodriguez or Gonzalez could run here and be safe.
| CD-20 |
| White |
26.2% |
| Black |
5.7% |
| Hispanic |
63.7% |
| Asian |
3.0% |
| Obama |
59.7% |
| McCain |
40.3% |
| Dem |
55.3% |
| Rep |
44.7% |
| PVI |
D+6 |
| Safe D |
CD-21 is more Democratic than CD-20. Joaquin Castro, a state Representative in San Antonio, could easily win this district.
| CD-21 |
| White |
27.5% |
| Black |
9.8% |
| Hispanic |
59.8% |
| Asian |
1.6% |
| Obama |
60.4% |
| McCain |
39.6% |
| Dem |
57.2% |
| Rep |
42.8% |
| PVI |
D+7 |
| Safe D |
Another GOP vote sink which goes from north of Williamson to Bexar county.
| CD-34 |
| White |
67.3% |
| Black |
4.9% |
| Hispanic |
24.1% |
| Asian |
2.2% |
| Obama |
31.9% |
| McCain |
68.1.1% |
| Dem |
28.4% |
| Rep |
71.6% |
| PVI |
R+22 |
| Safe R |
Greater Austin area
South Austin and San Marcos make CD-25. This district would possibly remain a white majority district to the end of the decade with a total population being 50.0% white. CD-25 and CD-10 would be the only two white majority Democratic districts in the state (both VAP and total population).
| CD-25 |
| White |
54.8% |
| Black |
5.3% |
| Hispanic |
35.6% |
| Asian |
2.6% |
| Obama |
60.0% |
| McCain |
40.0% |
| Dem |
54.9% |
| Rep |
45.1% |
| PVI |
D+6 |
| Safe D |
Central Austin, North Austin and its suburbs make up CD-10. Lloyd Dogget could easily choose either CD-25 or CD-10 to run in. I would label this one Likely D because of the lower Dem and Rep avg numbers coupled with the lowest Obama performance of all the other safe D districts. However this area has been trending Democratic and I can't see the Democrats letting this urban district get away from them. This is also a very un-gerrymandered looking district.
| CD-10 |
| White |
61.6% |
| Black |
7.5% |
| Hispanic |
22.2% |
| Asian |
6.8% |
| Obama |
59.0% |
| McCain |
41.0% |
| Dem |
51.3% |
| Rep |
48.7% |
| PVI |
D+5 |
| Safe D |
Central Texas
CD-17 contains part of North Austin, Round Rock, Killeen, Temple, Waco and Bryan. Edwards could easily win this gerrymandered mess, but it is a toss-up. There's nothing like a map with three Democratic districts out of Austin as revenge for years of relentless GOP gerrymandering of central Texas.
| CD-17 |
| White |
48.5% |
| Black |
19.3% |
| Hispanic |
25.6% |
| Asian |
4.5% |
| Obama |
55.0% |
| McCain |
45.0% |
| Dem |
49.7% |
| Rep |
50.3% |
| PVI |
D+1 |
| Toss-up |
CD-5 is another vote sink which makes the two toss-up districts CD-17 and CD-1 possible. The second most republican in the state and country.
| CD-5 |
| White |
75.4% |
| Black |
9.6% |
| Hispanic |
12.9% |
| Asian |
0.9% |
| Obama |
23.5% |
| McCain |
76.5% |
| Dem |
27.0% |
| Rep |
73.0% |
| PVI |
R+30 |
| Safe R |
East Texas
Despite the Democratic strength of the Dem and Rep avg numbers this is in an area of Texas that is trending towards the Republicans. This is toss-up utilizes Democratic strength in Beaumont, Port Arthur, Tyler and Longview which have to compete against the rural Republicans of east Texas.
| CD-1 |
| White |
48.6% |
| Black |
32.1% |
| Hispanic |
16.7% |
| Asian |
1.3% |
| Obama |
52.5% |
| McCain |
47.5% |
| Dem |
55.6% |
| Rep |
44.4% |
| PVI |
R+1 |
| Toss-up |
A district Louie Gohmert would love. Imagine never having to hear from any constituents who disagree with your radical right wing conservative stance? At 75.4% McCain that might not be an overstatement. This also shows how Obama severely under-performed with rural east Texas.
| CD-4 |
| White |
80.3% |
| Black |
9.4% |
| Hispanic |
8.0% |
| Asian |
0.7% |
| Obama |
24.6% |
| McCain |
75.4% |
| Dem |
33.0% |
| Rep |
67.0% |
| PVI |
R+29 |
| Toss-up |
Houston area vote sink. It includes Republican parts of Harris County Beaumont
| CD-22 |
| White |
74.2% |
| Black |
6.5% |
| Hispanic |
13.3% |
| Asian |
4.5% |
| Obama |
26.1% |
| McCain |
73.9% |
| Dem |
28.3% |
| Rep |
71.7% |
| PVI |
R+28 |
| Safe R |
Dallas Fort Worth metroplex
Fort Worth based CD-12 is almost entirely in Fort Worth proper. I could see a primary with State Representatives Lon Burnam and Marc Veasey for this district.
| CD-12 |
| White |
40.0% |
| Black |
21.4% |
| Hispanic |
32.8% |
| Asian |
4.2% |
| Obama |
60.0% |
| McCain |
40.0% |
| Dem |
55.3% |
| Rep |
44.7% |
| PVI |
D+6 |
| Safe D |
CD-6 packs the conservative parts of Tarrant county including north Fort Worth, west Arlington and other Fort Worth suburbs.
| CD-6 |
| White |
75.1% |
| Black |
5.7% |
| Hispanic |
13.5% |
| Asian |
3.9% |
| Obama |
33.2% |
| McCain |
66.8% |
| Dem |
29.4% |
| Rep |
70.6% |
| PVI |
R+21 |
| Safe R |
CD-24 includes Grand Prairie, east Arlington, part of Irving and south Dallas suburbs. Note that it is entirely possible to draw two 60% Obama districts, CD-12 and CD-24, in DFW without using the heavily Democratic areas of Dallas proper. Obama did over-perform in this district and this area has been trending Democratic.
| CD-24 |
| White |
33.6% |
| Black |
25.2% |
| Hispanic |
32.7% |
| Asian |
6.9% |
| Obama |
60.0% |
| McCain |
40.0% |
| Dem |
53.7% |
| Rep |
46.3% |
| PVI |
D+6 |
| Safe D |
CD-26 is largely Denton county and part of Tarrant county minus the city of Denton and the tract down to Dallas. Burgess should have no problem with this one.
| CD-26 |
| White |
74.7% |
| Black |
5.3% |
| Hispanic |
11.9% |
| Asian |
6.2% |
| Obama |
32.2% |
| McCain |
67.8% |
| Dem |
25.4% |
| Rep |
74.6% |
| PVI |
R+22 |
| Safe R |
Utilizing what little Democratic vote there is in Denton county and moving into South Dallas makes CD-3 another 60% Obama district. This district would violate communities of interest more than any other district in this map.
| CD-3 |
| White |
36.6% |
| Black |
16.5% |
| Hispanic |
38.0% |
| Asian |
7.3% |
| Obama |
60.1% |
| McCain |
39.9% |
| Dem |
53.5% |
| Rep |
46.5% |
| PVI |
D+6 |
| Safe D |
Some of Plano's least Republican areas had to be drawn into a South Dallas County district in lieu of some more Republican areas of North East Dallas County. Like all the districts in DFW Obama did over-perform compared to the Dem and Rep averages. However given the trend of Dallas towards the Democrats this should remain a safe district.
| CD-3 |
| White |
37.8% |
| Black |
26.1% |
| Hispanic |
26.3% |
| Asian |
8.1% |
| Obama |
60.0% |
| McCain |
40.0% |
| Dem |
53.9% |
| Rep |
46.1% |
| PVI |
D+6 |
| Safe D |
CD-32 is mostly in Dallas proper, downtown Dallas, east Dallas, parts of South Dallas and part of Richardson. NRCC chair Pete sessions would not win here.
| CD-32 |
| White |
40.8% |
| Black |
19.6% |
| Hispanic |
33.4% |
| Asian |
4.7% |
| Obama |
60.0% |
| McCain |
40.0% |
| Dem |
53.9% |
| Rep |
46.1% |
| PVI |
D+6 |
| Safe D |
Very conservative parts of Dallas proper, Plano and Rockwall are here. This vote sink has the lowest Republican PVI of all the vote sinks. However at R+20 Democrats need not apply.
| CD-35 |
| White |
72.7% |
| Black |
6.2% |
| Hispanic |
11.3% |
| Asian |
8.0% |
| Obama |
33.4% |
| McCain |
66.6% |
| Dem |
26.3% |
| Rep |
73.7% |
| PVI |
R+20 |
| Safe R |
Houston metro
GOP vote sink including very Republican parts of Fort Bend, Brazoria and Harris counties. CD-14 would elect any conservative.
| CD-14 |
| White |
63.9% |
| Black |
6.8% |
| Hispanic |
19.7% |
| Asian |
8.1% |
| Obama |
29.8% |
| McCain |
70.2% |
| Dem |
26.5% |
| Rep |
73.5% |
| PVI |
R+24 |
| Safe R |
CD-2 is another GOP vote sink, PVI R+26. Enough said.
| CD-2 |
| White |
71.4% |
| Black |
5.7% |
| Hispanic |
18.1% |
| Asian |
3.3% |
| Obama |
27.5% |
| McCain |
72.5% |
| Dem |
29.7% |
| Rep |
70.3% |
| PVI |
R+26 |
| Safe R |
Largely a Fort Bend based district. One interesting note is that it is 18.2% Asian VAP and only 1/4 white. CD-9 is the most diverse district in the state. No problems here for Al Green
| CD-9 |
| White |
25.3% |
| Black |
28.2% |
| Hispanic |
26.6% |
| Asian |
18.2% |
| Obama |
61.3% |
| McCain |
38.7% |
| Dem |
55.4% |
| Rep |
44.6% |
| PVI |
D+8 |
| Safe D |
South, west and south east Houston proper make CD-7 another safe one. Like CD-9 this one is barely 1/4 white. This is also a very diverse district
| CD-7 |
| White |
25.6% |
| Black |
22.9% |
| Hispanic |
41.0% |
| Asian |
9.1% |
| Obama |
63.6% |
| McCain |
36.4% |
| Dem |
59.1% |
| Rep |
40.9% |
| PVI |
D+10 |
| Safe D |
North Houston area Democratic seat. CD-33 is less than 1/4 white VAP and total white population is only 19.7%
| CD-33 |
| White |
23.1% |
| Black |
25.5% |
| Hispanic |
42.2% |
| Asian |
7.9% |
| Obama |
61.6% |
| McCain |
38.4% |
| Dem |
55.0% |
| Rep |
44.0% |
| PVI |
D+8 |
| Safe D |
Downtown Houston and the surrounding are including north east Houston proper makes this one.
| CD-18 |
| White |
32.0% |
| Black |
23.0% |
| Hispanic |
41.0% |
| Asian |
2.8% |
| Obama |
62.7% |
| McCain |
37.3% |
| Dem |
60.0% |
| Rep |
49.0% |
| PVI |
D+9 |
| Safe D |
CD-29 is the fourth district in the Houston area that is only about 1/4 white VAP. It is majority Hispanic. Gene Green would win easily here.
| CD-29 |
| White |
25.4% |
| Black |
17.2% |
| Hispanic |
52.8% |
| Asian |
3.6% |
| Obama |
63.7% |
| McCain |
36.3% |
| Dem |
62.9% |
| Rep |
37.1% |
| PVI |
D+10 |
| Safe D |
Final thoughts
Obviously a map like this would never happen. If there are areas of potential Democratic weakness they could be strengthened. In the Dallas Fort Worth metroplex if the Dem and Rep numbers are too low one of the districts could be converted to another Republican vote sink and the Democratic vote could strengthen the remaining four districts.
The total breakdown if the Democrats win the toss-ups would be 21D-15R. 19D-17R if the toss-ups go to the GOP and an even 18D-18R if the likely D seat goes GOP.
