Public Policy Polling. 9/16-18. Massachusetts voters. MoE ±4.6% (no trendlines):
Elizabeth Warren (D): 55
Alan Khazei (D): 9
Tom Conroy (D): 7
Marisa DeFranco (D): 2
Bob Massie (D): 2
Setti Warren (D): 1
Undecided/other: 22
As soon as I saw Elizabeth Warren's impressive numbers against Scott Brown on Tuesday, I knew she'd be leading in the primary. Tom Jensen confirmed that on Twitter the same day, but even so, I didn't expect a lead quite this big—or wide:
What's most notable about Warren's huge early advantage is that it's coming from across the ideological spectrum of the Democratic electorate. She does have her greatest strength with voters describing themselves as "very liberal" — a 55 point lead over Khazei at 65-10 — or "somewhat liberal" — a 53 point advantage over Khazei at 62-9. But she's got a huge advantage with moderates — 36 points over Conroy at 46-10 — and with those primary voters describing themselves as "somewhat conservative" — 22 points over Khazei at 40-18 — as well. Her support is not just a liberal phenomenon.
Although Warren looks like the overwhelming front runner regardless, it is important to note that this poll was taken at a time when she'd been receiving a lot of very good press while virtually no attention was given to her opponents. As a result she has 69% name recognition with Democratic primary voters compared to only 42% for Khazei, 30% for Setti Warren, 22% for Massie, and 19% for Conroy. It's conceivable that as the other candidates become better known they'll build support and cut into her lead some. But it will very hard for them to catch up from this sort of margin.
Regarding that last line, I just don't see how it's going to be much of a contest. It's hard to imagine any plausible, contradictory polls appearing any time soon, and what's more, after the fundraising quarter ends on Sept. 30, Warren is almost certain to show a much larger haul than any other candidate. I wouldn't even be surprised if she outraises the rest of the field combined. If I'm right, that will start to create a virtuous cycle for Warren—and a vicious cycle for all the other contestants. The more Warren looks like the frontrunner, the more support she'll gather, and the less that'll be left available for her opponents.
So for a young guy like, say, Newton Mayor Setti Warren, who has struggled with fundraising and is at a truly brutal 1 percent in this poll, but does have a political future ahead of him, does it really make sense to stay in the race only to get crushed in the end? Probably not. So I'd have to guess that at least some of the people listed above will bail at some point.
That said, I actually think Elizabeth Warren could do with a little seasoning in a Democratic primary, and you typically don't want to just anoint a first-time office-seeker. I'm certainly not predicting anything like this, but if she has serious negatives we don't yet know about, much better than they emerge now rather than later. It's also a good chance for Warren to get some campaign trail experience. And that's important, because unless something rather unexpected happens at this point, she's looking very much like the Democratic nominee already.