Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning.
Sign up here.
:
• NE-Sen: I really have to wonder why the conservative PAC FreedomWorks gets so much attention. It spawned from a David Koch beast called Citizens for a Sound Economy, and is most closely associated these days with ex-Rep. Dick Armey, who was once a pretty serious DC player (he served as House Majority Leader for eight years). So I guess that gets them automatic news coverage… but in reality, their financials are a joke. They spent barely over half a million bucks in 2010 — total chump change. So yeah, they're endorsing Treasurer Don Stenberg in the Republican primary, but BFD. They don't seem to do much beyond send press releases. Unless they start spending real money, I really think they're a non-factor.
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: Former Democratic state party chair Don Bivens just announced that he'd run for the open Senate seat, making him the first Dem to do so. Bivens' name has been floating around since at least February, and he formed an exploratory committee in July.
Meanwhile, former Surgeon General Richard Carmona confirmed last week's story that some aides to Gabby Giffords have tried to push him toward a run. Giffords' campaign staff is refusing to comment, though, and it's not clear what effect these efforts are having on Carmona, who has sounded pretty reluctant of late.
• CT-Sen: Tom Foley, the 2010 Republican gubernatorial nominee, has been looking at a rematch pretty much ever since the day he lost to Dan Malloy. Still, he'd been thought of as a possible Senate candidate for Joe Lieberman's open seat, but that's definitely not happening now, since Foley just endorsed Linda McMahon.
• MA-Sen, MA-09: Good, if expected: Dem Rep. Stephen Lynch says he will not run for Senate. With Elizabeth Warren soaking up so much attention and proving to be popular in all quarters of the electorate, I'd be surprised if anyone else of stature got in at this point.
• MI-Sen: Christian private schools entrepreneur Clark Durant has hired a big-name campaign manager in his quest for the GOP nomination: Dick Wadhams. You may remember Wadhams from such campaigns as George Allen for Senate 2006 and Bob Schaffer for Senate 2008. Or you might not, since both of those were ugly losses, each in their own way. Still, Wadhams (who is tight with Karl Rove) has to be considered a high-level get for Durant.
• PA-Sen: Former coal company owner Tom Smith, who previously said he was looking at a run, will formally join the GOP field this week. Smith indicated he'd put some of his own money into the race, but it didn't sound like he could self-fund the entire thing.
• VA-Sen: Is it just me, or did the Washington Post bury the lede on this story about George Allen's ties to the energy industry? Only once you get to the second page of their online version will you learn this:
On June 15, 2010, as BP oil continued to gush into the Gulf of Mexico, Allen appeared on the Willis Report on Fox Business Network, where he was introduced as a former Republican governor and senator and an energy industry consultant.
"By the way, I’m not a consultant to the oil industry or energy industry," Allen told host Gerri Willis. "I do have American Energy Freedom Center . . . but I follow energy closely because it matters a lot to jobs, our competitiveness and our balance of trade and, ultimately, our national security."
Riggs acknowledged that Allen was working as an energy consultant at the time but indicated that he was speaking as a former elected official and recent book author — and not as a consultant. "He wasn’t on the show as a consultant," he said.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov: I sort of had one eye closed in trepidation while I clicked this link… which will take you to, sadly, a roundup of recent campaign finance filings in Louisiana. GOP Gov. Bobby Jindal still has $7.7 million on hand, while Democrat Tara Hollis has just $4,612 in the bank. Hey, credit at least to former Gov. Kathleen Blanco, who donated $1,500 to Hollis.
• NH-Gov: This was hardly much of a secret, but Dem ex-state Sen. Maggie Hassan confirms she's considering a run for governor and will "be making a decision in the near future." The linked article gives some good background on Hassan if you're interested in learning more.
• VT-Gov, VT-Sen: Vermont's Republican state Auditor Tom Salmon (not to be confused with former Angels star OF Tim Salmon) says he will not challenge either Gov. Peter Shumlin or Sen. Bernie Sanders. Instead, Salmon (who has struck me as at least a little bit flakey, and indeed switched parties just two years ago) will seek re-election to a third term.
• WA-Gov: SurveyUSA has new numbers out for the Washington gubernatorial race, and they show a lead change. Click the link for our full post at Daily Kos Elections.
• WV-Gov: Ry Rivard, a reporter for the Charlestown Daily Mail, points out that in early voting so far (which just started), 59% of votes have been cast by registered Democrats, even though only 53% of voters statewide are Dems. On a related note, the DGA has a new ad out going after Bill Maloney's stance against receiving federal funding for education in the state.
House:
• IL-02: I need to register an objection to one line in this Huffington Post piece on Jesse Jackson, Jr.'s out-of-nowhere complaints about the new Illinois congressional map (full background here). Sayeth HuffPo:
Jackson is one of several representatives who will face increasingly ferocious competition in the next election as a result of the new district boundaries, which some speculate contributed to his opposition to the new map.
In a word, no. Take a look at our calculations for the new presidential results by congressional district. You'll see that the 2nd CD went from 90-10 Obama to — shudder! — 81-19 Obama. No Republican could ever win such a seat. And as I've noted previously, 54% of the voting age population here is black, which means that the Democratic primary electorate is even more heavily African American. Someone like JJJ should have no problem dispatching a white politician like ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the Democratic primary. So, again I say, this is all just whining on Jackson's part.
• IL-11: This would be quite something if true (and I have no reason to believe it's not): Veteran GOP Rep. Judy Biggert, despite being de-destricted by the new congressional map, is reportedly circulating petitions to seek re-election in the new 11th. (Lynn Sweet is saying the same thing as Crain's.) This district was drawn (like most in the state) to be very Dem-friendly, but Biggert has somehow managed to maintain a reputation as a "moderate" and in recent years has proved an adept fundraiser. She'll be in for the fight of her life here, though, since she'd be running against ex-Rep. Bill Foster, an able campaigner with a lot of money seeking favorable turf. Between her apparent decision to run here and fellow GOPer Tim Johnson trying to seek re-election in the 13th, IL Democrats aren't going to have quite as many incumbent-free races as they'd hoped.
• MI-11: No soft landing for Thaddeus McCotter. Last week, the one-time presidential hopeful (that still makes me laugh) decided to drop his White House bid and, in all likelihood, to seek re-election. But that didn't dissuade state Sen. Mike Kowall, a fellow Republican, from launching his own campaign for the 11th CD over the weekend. Kowall's chief argument is that he's from Oakland County, which now makes up a good chunk of MI-11, while McCotter is from Wayne County. It would be amusing to see McCotter get whacked in a primary, and it also would probably help Democrats to pick up this seat.
• NY-13: The Staten Island Advance reports that New York City Councilwoman Debi Rose is exploring a run for Congress against freshman GOPer Mike Grimm — and Rose did not deny the possibility when asked directly. Rose, the first African-American elected official in Staten Island's history, represents a district on the borough's North Shore, whose blue demographics stand in contrast to the much redder nature of the rest of the island. While she might be able to win a Democratic primary, it's not clear to me she has the profile to succeed in the general.
• OR-01: Democratic state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici is out with the first ad of the special election. She talks directly to the camera and highlights her work as a "consumer advocate" — i.e., an attorney for the FTC back in the 1980s. She also tosses in a "protect Social Security and Medicare" line at the end. Watch at the link or below:
•
PA-04: Republican state Rep. Jim Christiana says he's considering a run against Rep. Jason Altmire but says he's waiting on redistricting to decide. If he does get in, he'd face 2010 nominee Keith Rothfus in the GOP primary. Rothfus, you'll recall, nearly knocked off Altmire last year, losing by just 1.6%.
• PA-08: Yeah, baby! Jennifer Stefano, a staffer for the malevolent Koch-funded front group Americans for Prosperity, says she's thinking about challenging Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick in the GOP primary. Stefano is furious that Fitzpatrick, a red-shirt freshman in his second term, voted against a bill that would have blocked the National Relations Labor Board from actually enforcing the nation's labor laws. Of course, who knows if she'll actually follow through, and even if she does, who knows if AFP will actually have her back… but it's fun to think about.
• RI-01: Former Dem state party chair Bill Lynch, who ran for Congress last year, had been considering a primary rematch against now-Rep. David Cicilline. Now it looks like he's headed down another path, joining the law firm of Adler, Pollock & Sheehan next month as "counsel." In the parlance of the legal world, any position with the word "counsel" in it (of counsel, senior counsel, special counsel, or just plain old counsel) is a non-partner position usually reserved for experienced practitioners who make a good salary but don't actually own a part of the company. That leaves you somewhat freer to consider outside moves like a run for office (for instance, ex-Rep. Mike McMahon in NY-13 joined a firm as counsel this year, and he's still looking at a rematch), but based on his comments, it sounds as though Lynch is taking a second run off the table, for now at least.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the aisle, Ted Nesi brings us the latest chapter in the ongoing efforts of the Rhode Island GOP to shoot itself in both feet. We previously told you about how the state party is trying to make life as difficult as possible for the less-conservative-but-more-election Brendan Doherty, a former state police chief with strong non-partisan "law and order" credentials — the sort of profile a Republican needs in order to win in Rhode Island. But conservative hearts flutter for ex-state Rep. John Loughlin, who was last year's nominee but fell short despite the GOP tidal wave. Now, state House Minority Leader Brian Newberry is calling on Doherty to drop out of the race, claiming that Doherty "cannot invent the passion that does not exist for his campaign." Doherty of course told Newberry to take a hike, but if Ocean State Republicans can sabotage themselves, I'm all for it!
Other Races:
• Special Elections: Just one special this week. Johnny Longtorso:
South Carolina HD-100: An open Republican seat outside of Charleston. The candidates are Democrat Tonia Aiken-Taylor, a member of the Moncks Corner Town Council, and Republican Edward Southard, chairman of the Berkeley County Planning Commission. This is such a solidly Republican district, I couldn't find the last time Democrats even put a candidate up here.
Redistricting Roundup:
• AZ Redistricting: Arizona's redistricting commission expects to publish draft maps some time in the next couple of weeks, after which there will be a thirty-day comment period. The commission will then finalize the maps, which suggests that the non-legal parts of the process could be wrapped up some time in November. Arizona's maps still need to get pre-cleared by the DoJ, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some litigation. (In fact, we already have.)
• ME Redistricting: It sounds like the GOP is ramping up its threats to jam through their own redistricting plan on a simply majority, rather than the customary two-thirds, if Democrats don't cave in. But as we noted when this idea was first floated a few weeks ago (thanks to a great diary by Eddie in ME), going this route exposes Republicans to a serious problem: The map could be overturned at the ballot box via referendum, in much the same way Maine's marriage equality law was nixed in 2009.
• MO Redistricting: What the heck? This does not seem like a good use of resources to me. A handful of Missouri plaintiffs, backed by a group called the National Democratic Redistricting Trust, is suing to try to overturn the state's new congressional map. The grounds are about as weak as can be: one claim that the new districts violate a compactness provision in the state constitution, and another argument that the map constitutes an impermissible partisan gerrymander. That second one really makes me scornful, since the Supreme Court has pretty much said it will never find a map illegal because it was drawn with partisan aims. Anyhow, while Dem Rep. Russ Carnahan, who got hosed in redistricting, apparently isn't directly involved with this lawsuit, he's been hinting about suing for months, according to the article. He stands to benefit the most if the case is successful, so you've got to wonder if he's connected to these efforts somehow.
• NM Redistricting: It's an early curtain call for the kabuki cartography performance in New Mexico. Though the state Senate approved a congressional redistricting plan, the House adjourned without a vote, apparently because some House Democrats didn't like the proposed map. According to Heath Haussamen, "a handful of Southern New Mexico Democrats in the House refused to go with their party’s plan that would have essentially abandoned the southern 2nd Congressional District to Republicans." Not that it would have mattered anyway, since GOP Gov. Susana Martinez would have vetoed anything the legislature passed. Haussamen says Martinez could call a second special session on redistricting, though that would seem fruitless. More likely, this will all end up in court — which is exactly what anyone would have predicted on day one.
• OH Redistricting: As expected, the Ohio House re-voted to approve the state's new congressional map, a move necessitated by a $2.75 million appropriation added to the bill by the state Senate. Republicans added this provision to prevent the bill from being repealed at the ballot box in a so-called "people's veto" — appropriations bills cannot be subject to referenda. GOP Gov. John Kasich pledged to sign the bill, saying "I trust the leaders" in the legislature. UPDATE: Kasich signed the bill (PDF).
