The GOP's 2012 dollars race is a two-person contest (Mario Anzuoni/Reuters)
Politico
confirms that Rick Perry's fundraising haul for his first six weeks on the campaign trail was $17 million, almost as much as Mitt Romney raised in his first reporting period and significantly more than Romney raised over the past three months. And Maggie Haberman also
reports that Perry has $15 million in cash on hand, about $2.5 million more than Mitt Romney had after his first report.
As Haberman points out, Perry's cash on hand is significant: if the campaign ends up becoming a war of attrition between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, it will be as important to raise money as it will to make it last. (That doesn't mean penny pinching is always the right move—a pretty good case could be made that Perry should have spent more on debate coaching ... but I digress.)
As Kombiz Lavasany points out:
$15 million is a lot of money in IA and NH tv to remind voters that Mitt Romney has no real belief system and flip flops all the time.
And judging by this prediction from NBC's First Read a week ago, both numbers will have an important impact on 2012 narrative.
With the 3rd fundraising quarter ending today, all eyes are on Rick Perry's first finance numbers. It's been a rough couple of weeks for the Texas governor, but a strong fundraising showing -- say in the neighborhood of $15 million since announcing his bid in mid-August -- would give him a much-needed boost and would solidify his chances of competing financially with Mitt Romney (who raised $18 million last quarter). More than that amount would signal some SERIOUS fundraising chops for Perry, while less than that would be considered trouble for him. Back in June, Tim Pawlenty had a rough debate performance and followed up with a poor fundraising number ($4 million-plus). The question for Perry: Can he post a total that doesn't draw any comparisons to Pawlenty? Right now, Perry World is simply promising more than $10 million.
Probably the most important thing about these numbers is that during the 2012 primary campaign so far, only Romney and Perry have demonstrated the ability to raise the money a presidential campaign takes. Both Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann have shown tremendous ability to fundraise in previous campaigns, but neither one has done what it takes so far in this campaign. But Romney and Perry have, and even though the polls show each candidate has tremendous weaknesses, until another candidate can raise money at their level, the campaign for the Republican nomination will effectively be a two-person race.
