Via the Sacramento Bee's
Capitol Alert:
Rep. Dennis Cardoza, D-Merced, announced his retirement Thursday, culminating a San Joaquin Valley political career that dates back to a college internship three decades ago.
The 52-year-old Cardoza said he will step down at the end of 2012 rather than battle it out in a newly redrawn congressional district with his long-time friend and colleague, Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno.
"I love the people of the Central Valley, and thank them for the confidence they have placed in me," Cardoza said in a statement. "While I plan to retire from public service after this term in Congress, I will energetically continue my efforts to improve California as a private citizen."
This is about as unsurprising as a retirement gets. Back in August, Cardoza refused to confirm whether he'd seek re-election, and his fundraising has been very weak for some time. More importantly, as the blockquote above notes, Cardoza's best hope for re-election would have been in the new 16th District. (He currently represents the old 18th.) The problem is that the 16th is also the ideal seat for Jim Costa, who is Cardoza's BFF. (You may recall that these two rather goofily voted for each other as Minority Leader earlier this year—the only votes either man got.)
Ordinarily, a retirement sets off a ton of speculation about who might next run for the seat being vacated, but in this case, it's pretty clear: It'll be Costa. It's certainly possible to imagine a contested race on the Democratic side (after all, several other incumbents are facing primary challenges), but Costa will be the dominant favorite to take this seat.