Even before the Democratic National Committee produced this ad,
Mitt Romney was trailing President Obama in Arizona.
Rocky Mountain Poll. 10/13-14. Arizona RVs. ±4.1%. (no trend)
Obama: 45
Romney: 40
Obama: 45
Cain: 38
Obama: 44
Perry: 38
Taking Arizona would be a big deal: Not only does it represent one of the very few states that could flip to Obama (John McCain won it in 2008), it has a sizable 11 electoral votes, up from 10 in 2008. Including D.C., the average state has 10.5 electoral votes, but because there are a lot of of smaller states, Arizona ranks in the top 20 by electoral vote.
Based on the 2008 results and the 2012 electoral vote distribution, President Obama would get 359 electoral votes, but 2012 is likely to be a much tougher election than 2008. Arizona would seem to be the only state that he's got a reasonable chance at flipping. In a tight race, it could neutralize the effect of losing Indiana, which also has 11 electoral votes. Obviously if the GOP nominee implodes, other states would come into play, but at that point, the only question will be how big Obama's victory margin is.
And speaking of the GOP imploding:
According to the survey, 25% of Arizona Republicans say if the state's primary were held today, they would vote for Cain, a businessman, former Godfather's Pizza CEO and radio talk show host, with 24% saying they would back Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, who's making his second bid for the White House. Cain's one point margin is well within the survey's sampling error.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry is at 10%, with all other candidates in single digits and one in five Arizona Republicans undecided.
By the way, if you haven't yet watched, check out the ad at the top of this post. It's positively brutal—and the best part is that it only uses some of the video that Romney gave us with his "Let it hit bottom" housing plan. And keep in mind these results come from a survey conducted before Romney ever opened his mouth. So things can actually get worse for him in Arizona, if he ends up becoming the nominee.
