Off-year elections often get a bad rap for being boring affairs. On paper, 2011 would seem to justify the charge. After all, only three governorships are up this year, and one of those (Louisiana) got decided in the October primaries. The other two (Kentucky and Mississippi) are exceedingly unlikely to be any closer than 15 points.
But true election junkies know that there is life beyond the governor's mansion, Congress, and the White House. And a paucity of real races in those environs doesn't mean there isn't plenty to watch on Tuesday, however. From two high-profile recall elections, to critically important initiative battles in two states, to a couple of state legislatures that might be teetering on the brink, to a host of competitive mayoral races, there will be no shortage of battles to capture the attention of political junkies.
With that in mind, what follows beneath the jump is a handy guide to the top contests to watch roughly 48 hours from now. From the first poll closings of the day in Kentucky (6 PM ET/3 PM PT) to the time mail-in ballots start to be tallied in the 1st Congressional District in Oregon (11 PM ET/8 PM PT), there will be a whole hell of a lot to keep an eye on. So follow me across the fold to take a look at the races people will be citing Wednesday, with an eye towards 2012.
UPDATE: This preview originally was posted to Daily Kos on Sunday evening. In the interim, our polling pals at PPP offered their final looks in Ohio, Mississippi, and Iowa. I have updated below with the toplines for the relevant races, but if you want further details, feel free to click the link.
ISSUES ON THE BALLOT
Normally, any Election Day preview would look at the "top of the ticket" races, but those are admittedly pedestrian contests this year, so it's safe to make the case that the highest profile events this year are citizen initiatives and referenda, many of which are getting national attention.
The one getting the most attention around these parts, and deservedly so, is the battle in Ohio over Issue 2. Issue 2 is the measure in which voters will either confirm or reject SB5, the union-busting measure promoted earlier in the year by the GOP-led state legislature and Republican Gov. John Kasich. PPP polled the measure this weekend, and they are hinting at a potential victory for labor over the GOP legislature on this measure. UPDATE: That PPP poll was released Sunday evening (after this piece first ran). Indeed, Issue 2 looks prepared for defeat, with 59% leaning "no" and only 36% indicating their support.
Another state looking to walk back a legislative assault by a new Republican majority is Maine, where a voter referendum Tuesday may well overturn last Spring's decision by the GOP legislature to end same-day voter registration. The GOP ended the decades-old practice shortly after assuming the majority, claiming as they always do the spectre of "voter fraud." A PPP poll earlier in the week showed a narrow edge for the reinstatement of same-day registration.
Another state getting deserved attention is Mississippi, where conservatives have put some high-profile political issues to the voters. Democrats are secretly hoping one of those two issues (one on voter ID) will actually backfire on the GOP by goosing African-American turnout. Another measure, however, is getting most of the ink. The measure, Initiative 26, is on the subject of defining "personhood" from the moment of fertilization. Another initiative, on eminent domain, is also on deck. UPDATE: PPP polled here as well, and found the personhood amendment in a tossup, while the eminent domain law was passing by double-digits.
Other initiatives getting attention include the latest Tim Eyman effort in Washington (this one, imitated by conservatives elsewhere, would limit gas tax or toll revenues to be used only for transportation purposes), as well as a wide variety of measures in the state of Texas.
STATEWIDE ELECTIONS: Kentucky and Mississippi
Two Southern states will be selecting their full slate of constitutional officers, and while there is no intrigue at the top of the ticket, there is bound to be some downballot.
In Kentucky, Republicans initially had high hopes for state Senate Pres. David Williams. After all, he was a known quantity in Kentucky, a red state. But his campaign has become something of an unmitigated train wreck, and the beneficiaries may be candidates with names like Conway, Edelen, Farmer, and Lundergan-Grimes. That is because Williams, still trailing by north of 20 points has sapped the GOP of any momentum whatsoever. The end result, as a CN|2 poll from late October affirmed, is Democratic leads for every statewide office. Of the group, the GOP can still hold out hope in the state Auditor's race (Democrat Adam Edelen vs. Republican John Kemper) and the Secretary of State's race (Democrat Alison Lundergan-Grimes vs. Republican Bill Johnson). The race they want the most, however, is their challenge on Democratic Attorney General (and 2010 Senate nominee) Jack Conway by Todd P'Pool. Polls, however, give Conway a wide edge.
Meanwhile, Democrats are hurting in Mississippi, where the last few elections in the Magnolia State have really left Republicans in the catbird's seat. Democrats control only one statewide constitutional office (Attorney General--where Democrat Jim Hood is favored to win again), and it seems unlikely that will change after Tuesday. Democratic nominee Johnny DuPree, the mayor of Hattiesburg, has been outraised by a better than 5-to-1 clip by Republican Phil Bryant, the state's Lt. Governor. The best hope for Democrats is that a controversial voter ID initiative, plus having an African-American Democrat atop the ticket, will create a shockingly unexpected turnout dynamic. Even then, the Democrats are ill-prepared to take advantage downballot: they didn't even field candidates for two of the seven statewide offices, and offered only token opposition in a couple of others. UPDATE: PPP polled the Magnolia State, and found that Republican Phil Bryant enjoys a 54-40 lead over Democrat Johnny DuPree. They also found Democrat Jim Hood with a double-digit lead in his re-election bid.
STATE LEGISLATURES: Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia
With Democrats holding four of the six legislative bodies up for grabs on Tuesday (and having a tough time finding a realistic path to victory in the other two), the legislative battles will be a defensive battle, to be sure.
Republicans are extraordinarily optimistic about their chances in Virginia, where the Democrats hold a tenuous 22-18 edge in the State Senate. The battle rages from the northern tier of the state (where Democratic Sen. George Barker is in a whale of a fight with Miller Baker) to the southern reaches of the commonwealth (where Democratic Sen. John Miller barely won in 2007, and is defending his seat in a tossup with former Williamsburg councilman Mickey Chohany). Almost all of the tossup races involve Democratic-held seats, which is a large part of the cause for Republican optimism. The Democrats' best shots may well be in a pair of newly-created open seats (SD-13 and SD-22).
Meanwhile, the Democrats do have one rather strange incumbent on the target list: Republican Sen. Ralph Smith (SD-19). Smith is a peculiar target for one reason: no Democrat filed to run against him. Smith, however, did draw a serious challenger in former Republican Sen. Brandon Bell, who is running as an Independent. Senate Democratic leader Dick Saslaw tossed $200K from the Senate Democrats into Bell's election. It is a qualified risk (any conservative Bell supporters might now think twice about voting for him, with such established ties to the Democrats now apparent), but it underscores how concerned the Democrats are about their prospects this coming week.
While there are a few races to watch in the battle over control of the House of Delegates, the actual balance of power there is pretty well beyond doubt. The Democrats would beat the spread to gain any seats at all this year, and they'd have to gain nearly a dozen to wrest control of the chamber.
For another perspective on the Virginia races, check out this piece earlier in the week from Daily Kos Elections regular Johnny Longtorso.
In Mississippi, the big question is whether the Republicans can finally wrest the state House of Representatives from the Democrats. As a practical matter, it is hard to define "Democratic control" of the House as anything more than nominal, anyway, given the high number of conservative Democrats in the state. That said, the Democrats go into the election with a 68-54 lead in the House, and it looks like about a 50/50 prospect for the GOP to claim the chamber. Redistricting plays a role here, as in a quirky development, two state senators have bailed on the upper chamber in order to play their parts in the battle for control of the House. Both Republican Nolan Mettetal (HD-10) and Democrat David Baria (HD-122) are in very competitive races that could be instrumental in the balance of power. If Democrats have some targets, it is in the form of re-election bids by recent party switchers to the GOP. Both Sid Bondurant (HD-24) and Russ Nowell (HD-43) will soon learn if their big victories in past elections were because of them, or because of their affiliation with the Democratic party.
Meanwhile, the GOP has an even slighter majority in the state Senate in the Magnolia State, but there seems to be little discussion that their majority (which stands at 27-24, with one Democratic vacancy) is anything less than secure. On paper, the GOP might be favored to hold onto the chamber, but it isn't necessarily a lock. Complicating the predictive value of these races is the combination of a slew of open-seat races coupled with the contradictory turnout logic that comes from a race with an African-American at the top of the ticket (advantage: Democrats) who is likely to get blown out (advantage: Republicans).
Finally, in New Jersey, Democratic control of both chambers is pretty well assured, but Republicans are trying to shave the Democratic majorities and give their blowhard of a governor (Chris Christie) some bragging rights. The party in the governor's office typically does not fare too well in midterm elections. The hot districts (in New Jersey, as in about a dozen other states, the Assembly districts are doubled up within the Senate districts) this time around are in South Jersey's 1st and 2nd districts, both held in the Senate by the Democrats. The Senate race to watch, as confirmed by polling last week, is in the 2nd district, where incumbent Democrat Jim Whelan is battling Republican Assemblyman Vince Polistina. A new poll in the 3rd legislative district, meanwhile, shows the GOP has a punchers chance at an Assembly pick-up there, as well.
MAYORAL ELECTIONS
Lots of cities will be electing new mayors Tuesday night, though some of these, admittedly, are incredibly boring affairs. Indeed, in two of the biggest cities with mayoral races on tap (Philadelphia and Houston), incumbents are expected to cruise to re-election.
One of the other big cities on deck, however, has a potentially competitive race. Despite the well-earned historical reputation of Phoenix as a haven for rock-ribbed Republicanism, Democrats have won the mayoral race here in the past (including the outgoing mayor, Phil Gordon). And, if a recent poll is any indicator, Democrat Greg Stanton might be on his way to keeping the office in Democratic hands. He held a double-digit lead over Republican Wes Gullett.
Other key mayoral races on tap Tuesday include:
- Indianapolis: Whereas most mayoral races are nominally nonpartisan, Indy pairs a declared Republican and a declared Democrat in a partisan battle. An EPIC-MRA poll last week gave incumbent Republican Mayor Greg Ballard an 11-point edge over Democrat Melina Kennedy, but earlier polling hinted at a much closer race.
- San Francisco: As one might expect in one of the most progressive cities in America, this race is a multi-candidate field where nary a Republican will be found in the top tier. Among the leading candidates are acting Mayor Edwin Lee (who reversed field after initially hinting that he would not seek a full term in his own right), county supervisor John Avalos, SF city attorney Dennis Herrera, and state senator Leland Yee.
- Charlotte: Another race with a clear partisan contrast, this was a highlight for Democrats a few years ago, when Democrat Anthony Foxx wrested away the title of Charlotte Mayor, a job held for over two decades by Republicans. This time around, polls show Foxx cruising to re-election over Republican Scott Stone.
- Tucson: With the election of Bob Walkup, Tucson became a Democratic city with a Republican Mayor. With the seat now open, the Democrats look prepared to reclaim the office. Democratic polling claims that Democrat Jonathan Rothschild leads Republican Rick Grinnell heading into Election Day.
- Spokane: Here is a nominally nonpartisan race with clear partisan overtones. Incumbent Mayor Mary Verner is facing a well-funded challenge from David Condon, who is technically a nonpartisan but has been getting buckets of cash from the state GOP. Condon is a former staffer to GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers.
In addition to mayoral races, there are dozens of county boards and county executive races in the Northeast that will be drawing all kinds of attention. Among the ones getting the most eyeballs include the county executive race in Erie County (New York), as well as the battles for control of the county commission in the key swing county of Montgomery County (Pennsylvania).
SPECIAL ELECTIONS
They weren't on the agenda originally, but a quintet of races will weigh heavily on the minds of the Daily Kos Elections staff come Tuesday night.
In Iowa-SD 18, control of the Iowa state senate comes down to a special election to replace an outgoing senator appointed to a state board by Republican Gov. Terry Branstad. It is pretty universally understood that Branstad appointed Swati Dandekar to the state utilities board (complete with a sweet six-figure salary) in order to open up one of the most vulnerable Democratic-held state senate seats in Iowa (Dandekar won here 52-44 in 2008). This matters because the Democrats hold just a 26-24 majority in the chamber, and a 25-25 split would flip control of the senate to the Republicans, since the state's Republican Lt. Governor would provide the tiebreaking vote. (UPDATE:) Per a pair of our commenters, the Lt. Governor no longer casts the tiebreaking vote. A power-sharing arrangement would go into effect if the chamber locked into a 25-25 tie. Also, specific to this race, PPP released a poll on this race this evening, giving Democrat Liz Mathis a 52-46 lead over Republican Cindy Golding.
Iowa Democrats nominated former television anchor Liz Mathis, while the GOP countered with Linn County party chair Cindy Golding. PPP is polling the race this weekend, but have yet to drop a hint about their findings, other than that gay marriage (thought to be imperiled if the GOP claims the state senate) has not been a pivotal consideration. That tea leaf, though, is pretty hard to divine. My guess (and it is just that) is that this could be construed as good news for Democrats, as it makes clear that the GOP is not rallying a huge silent majority of culture warriors to their cause.
Meanwhile, a pair of recall elections are also worth watching on Tuesday. In Michigan, young state Rep. Paul Scott has made a lot of enemies in his short tenure in the House. Among those enemies are the state teachers union, who have tangled often with Scott based on his perch on the state education committee. His antics on that committee have earned him a fairly loathesome pal in renowned union basher Michelle Rhee, whose organization has coughed up quite a bit of cash on Scott's behalf. The largesse is ironic, given that Rhee just lent her name to the "It Gets Better" campaign at the same time that the Michigan GOP used the legislative process to make a mockery of anti-bullying law, essentially permitting bullying if it comes from a "sincerely held" religious or moral belief. In the other recall election, odious Arizona state senate president Russell Pearce is in the fight of his political life against Jerry Lewis. Lewis is also a Republican, but Pearce lies well to his right, and has tried to make the entire recall about convincing voters that he is more xenophobic than Lewis, who is perceived as the more moderate option in the race. Polls in the race have given Lewis a 3-6 point lead, far too close to be probative of much on this GOP-dominated turf.
Meanwhile, in OR-01, most of the intrigue in the special election to replace recently resigned Democratic Rep. David Wu will evidently come in the general election. The district leans Democratic, but was reasonably competitive in 2010 when Wu was challenged by Republican businessman Rob Cornilles. Cornilles is back, and polls indicate that he is very likely to be challenged by Democratic state senator Suzanne Bonamici. The election was conducted, as is the case in Oregon, by mail, with ballots beginning to be tallied Tuesday night. It will be a distinct surprise if either primary is close.
Speaking of races likely to be one-sided, there are roughly a dozen state legislative special elections on Tuesday night, but it seems unlikely that any of them will be close, with the possible exception of a state House race in Missouri (centered in St. Charles). The district went 60% for the GOP incumbent last time around, but the territory is not monolithically red. Might be worth a quick check on Election Night, if you can tear yourself away from the zillions of other races on the docket.