Paul Bunyan statue, Akeley, MN
for KSTP-TV. 11/2-7. Registered voters. MoE ±4.3% (no trendlines):
Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 55
Dan Severson (R): 23
Undecided: 22
Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 56
Joe Arwood (R): 22
Undecided: 22
Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 49
Tim Pawlenty (R): 37
Undecided: 14
Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 50
Norm Coleman (R): 37
Undecided: 14
Minnesota certainly doesn't seem like it's on anyone's list of possible Republican Senate takeovers for 2012 ... and here's some more indication of why. Democratic first-term incumbent Amy Klobuchar is flattening her announced opposition, former state Rep. Dan Severson and St. Bonifacius (population 2,283) city councilor Joe Arwood. She's also still sporting double-digit leads against the GOP's Minnesota A-team, such as it is: ex-Gov. Tim Pawlenty and ex-Sen. Norm Coleman (both of whom have already said they won't run). There aren't trendlines here, but this is right in line with PPP's last look at the race from May, where Klobuchar led Severson 56-28 and led Pawlenty 54-41. SurveyUSA doesn't include approvals, but PPP previously found Klobuchar one of the nation's most popular senators, not the kind of target that would tempt a better-known Republican to get into the race.
Maybe Klobuchar could loan a few points' worth of popularity to Barack Obama? While the president doesn't look like he's in the danger zone in Minnesota, he is leading Mitt Romney by only a 45-39 margin in this sample, with a strangely high 16 percent undecided. (He won Minnesota by 10—54-44—in 2008.) Against the three different character actors in the Republicans' supporting cast, he polls an identical 48-35 against all of them (Herman Cain, Rick Perry and Ron Paul). Minnesotans seem in the mood to repudiate the Republican candidate they know the best: Against Michele Bachmann, Obama is at a pretty convincing 57-29.
