"Why should I waste my time in Iowa when I can sell books in New York?" (Daron Dean/Reuters)
Both Iowa and New Hampshire argue that they should retain their cherished first-in-the-nation status because they force candidates to engage in retail politics.
They don't explain why retail politics matters in an era of 24/7 media saturation, but that's the argument. Unfortunately for them, it appears that the voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, like the rest of the country, really don't care about retail politics.
Iowa:
A new Insider Advantage poll in Iowa shows Newt Gingrich leading the Republican presidential race with 28%, followed by Ron Paul at 13%, Mitt Romney at 12%, Herman Cain at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 10% and Rick Perry at 7%.
Was it retail politics? Um, no. Just today:
With 34 days until the Iowa caucuses, Newt Gingrich has finally opened a campaign headquarters in the Hawkeye State [...]
Gingrich is the last of the major candidates to open an office here located at 11386 Aurora Ave. in Urbandale (just outside of Des Moines). Furniture was just delivered and the office will be up and running for volunteers in the next couple days.
New Hampshire:
In the shock poll of the day, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has pulled into a statistical tie with Mitt Romney in the former Massachusetts governor’s backyard, New Hampshire.
The poll of likely Republican primary voters by Magellan Strategies for the online New Hampshire Journal shows Mr. Romney with 29% in the Granite State, within the poll’s 3.6-percentage-point margin of error over Mr. Gingrich’s 27%. Texas Rep. Ron Paul has 16% support, with former pizza company executive Herman Cain at 10%.
And that was before the Union-Leader endorsement, which historically has had a major effect on GOP primaries.
So has Newt Gingrich been retail politicking in New Hampshire? Um, no.
As recently as two weeks ago, the Gingrich campaign was apparently unable to name 40 New Hampshire supporters of his presidential campaign.
Candidates needed to file their slates of 20 delegates to the National Convention, along with 20 alternates, with the Secretary of State by November 18. The Gingrich campaign filed a partial slate of 14 delegates and 13 alternates, leaving 13 slots vacant. Among the 27 names Gingrich listed are three members of his staff.
What kind of candidate can't find 40 supporters? Well, one who is too busy doing book tours in non-primary states to do any retail politicking.
And do you know who surged in the Iowa and New Hampshire polls before Gingirch? Herman Cain, when he was the darling of right-wing media. Even Donald Trump had his surge in those states despite never even campaigning!
The era of retail politics is dead. Republican primary voters care more about what Rush Limbaugh says than what the candidates may personally tell them at a diner. Do you know who has spent the most ground in Iowa? Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum, for all the good it has done them.
There was never any reason to allow Iowa and New Hampshire to maintain their unwarranted monopolies on the presidential nomination process. But even their feeblest rationalizations are no longer operative.