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• NE-Sen: This would be a massive game-changer if it happened: The New York Times is reporting that Mitch McConnell is heavily recruiting Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman to run against Dem Sen. Ben Nelson next year. Heineman is wildly popular in his home state, having twice won election with over 70% of the vote, and he isn't rebuffing McConnell's entreaties. Rather, says the term-limited Heineman: “I told them ‘no’ up until now. They keep calling, I keep listening.”
Nelson, for his part, hasn't even committed to running for a third term, and I suspect a Heineman entry—or even the threat of one—might strongly encourage him to hang up his spurs. Nelson is nobody's favorite Democrat, but if this race comes off the table, the conventional wisdom says this makes holding the Senate quite a lot harder for Team Blue. The alternate view is that if Nelson is doomed anyway, his departure would forestall the DSCC from throwing good money after bad. If there's a silver lining here, it's that McConnell is sending a pretty clear message that the NRSC doesn't think much of its current crop of candidates, which itself is a fairly remarkable state of affairs.
Senate:
• FL-Sen: PPP is out with brand-new numbers for the Florida Senate race, and unlike a trio of pollsters before them, they find Dem Sen. Bill Nelson with a comfortable, double-digit lead over new-then-old-then-new-again opponent Connie Mack. Click the link for our full post, with all the head-to-heads, at Daily Kos Elections.
• IA-Sen: Dem Sen. Tom Harkin says he's not sure whether he'll seek re-election… in 2020. I think that's a cutesy way of him signaling that, despite his 72 years of age, he plans to run in 2014.
• PA-Sen: I suppose Dominic Pileggi may actually be serious about running for the Senate after all. Just days after he first floated his name, the Republican state Senate Majority Leader has reportedly hired a consulting firm and a fundraiser to assist his nascent campaign. But even if Pileggi enters, one rival says he isn't backing down: Businessman Steve Welch is pledging to stay in the race until the bitter end. But if there's one guy you shouldn't believe when he says such things, it's Steve Welch. Last cycle, he bailed on a run in PA-07 after US Attorney Pat Meehan got into the race, then ditched in PA-06 after Rep. Jim Gerlach dropped down from a failed gubernatorial bid to seek re-election instead. In fact, Welch specifically promised he wouldn't abandon in the 6th CD primary even after Gerlach's return, only to go back on his word and quit a month later.
Gubernatorial:
• VA-Gov: Hot cat fud, comin' through! Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling is piping mad about fellow Republican AG Ken Cuccinelli's decision on Thursday to announce a run for governor, putting out a petulant statement on his website. Check it out:
Needless to say, I am very disappointed by Mr. Cuccinelli's decision to run for Governor in 2013. During the 2009 campaign, and since taking office in 2010, Mr. Cuccinelli had repeatedly stated that he intended to seek re-election as Attorney General in 2013 and that is what I and other Republican leaders had expected him to do. Unfortunately, he has now decided to put his own personal ambition ahead of the best interests of the Commonwealth and the Republican Party.
In 2009 Governor McDonnell and I gave Virginia Republicans a blueprint for how to win statewide elections in Virginia. It started with our decision to join together and offer a united vision for the future of our state. In order to make that possible, I decided to seek re-election to the office of Lieutenant Governor and support Bob McDonnell's campaign for Governor. Unlike Mr. Cuccinelli, I set aside my personal ambition and did what was right for the Commonwealth and our party.
• VT-Gov: Republican state Sen. Randy Brock says he'll announce his future political plans at a press conference this week. A former state auditor, Brock might run for governor against incumbent Dem Peter Shumlin, or he could seek another statewide office, like attorney general or a second turn at auditor.
• WI-Gov: A new name has emerged on the list of possible contenders to take on Gov. Scott Walker in a likely recall election next year: Dem state Sen. Tim Cullen, who says he's "thinking it over very seriously." I'm starting to wonder if we might not see a contested Democratic primary for the right to go head-to-head with Walker. Might not be such a bad thing, as long as we keep it clean.
House:
• IL-02: Oof. This doesn't look good for Dem Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. The House Ethics Committee is extending its investigation into the Illinois congressman, saying it needs more time to "complete its review." But that's not the worst part. This is:
But in a report from the Office of Congressional Ethics (OCE) released for the first time Friday, the secretive panel, which makes recommendations to the House Ethics Committee, said there is “probable cause” that Jackson either “directed a third party... to offer to raise money for Governor Blagojevich in exchange for appointing Representative Jackson to the Senate seat” or “had knowledge” that an offer would be extended on his behalf.
And meanwhile, Sen. Dick Durbin is currently witholding his endorsement, saying he wants to wait for the inquiry to wrap up. This is notable because ordinarily it would be automatic for a sitting senator to back an incumbent of his own party who is facing a contested primary. But not only is Durbin not helping Jackson, the AP's brief writeup suggests he could actually endorse Jackson's opponent, ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson. No circling of the wagons around JJJ, that's for sure. (And you have to wonder whether his belated public denigration of Democrats' redistricting efforts has helped to leave him out in the cold.)
• IL-17: What is it with top-tier Democratic candidates dropping out of congressional races in Illinois this year? Was the gerrymander not good enough? Well, whatever the reason, state Sen. Dave Koehler, who came into the race highly touted, is now out, despite having managed to secure an endorsement from the UAW over the summer. Koehler will seek re-election instead and probably closed the door on any future runs for federal office, saying “Illinois has always been more important to me than Washington." His departure probably makes East Moline Alderwoman Cheri Bustos, who is backed by EMILY's List, the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
• IN-06: One-time Mike Pence aide Andrew Phipps says he's going to enter the Republican primary to seek his boss's old seat. Phipps has lost a couple of races for state Senate and is best known as "the longtime host of radio and TV programs featuring gospel music."
• IN-08: This is unusual: The three Democrats hoping to take back the 8th from GOP freshman Larry Bucshon have all agreed to replace the traditional May primary with a Dec. 10 caucus of local party leaders—and they've all pledged to drop out and endorse the winner of that vote. On the one hand, it would allow the nominee to start focusing on Bucshon much earlier, but on the flipside, the three men—former state Rep. Dave Crooks, former Brad Ellsworth aide Patrick Scates, and Warrick County Democratic Chairman Terry White—would miss out on the chance to increase their name recognition (and hone their chops) during a regular primary campaign.
But according to Eric Bradner's report in the Evansville Courier & Press, the trio is more concerned about husbanding money for the general election rather than spending it on getting the Democratic nomination. And a local Dem official also suggests that the two who aren't selected could run for another office, since the filing deadline isn't until February. But that sorta makes you wonder about everyone's commitment to this race, no?
• MA-04: Another Republican name is getting floated for Barney Frank's open seat, freshman state Rep. Shaunna O’Connell. However, David Kravitz at Blue Mass Group notes O'Connell's being touted by hack conservative columnist Holly Robichaud, who has a history of promoting candidates who benefit her self-interest when she wears her other hat: political consultant.
• MN-01: Republican state Rep. Allen Quist, who unsuccessfully sought his party's nomination last year and began talking up the possibility of a second try last month, says he will in fact make a go of it. On his way to challenge Dem Rep. Tim Walz, Quist will first have to face state Sen. Mike Parry in the GOP primary. State Sen. Julie Rosen may get in as well.
• OH-03: One more candidate just entered the Democratic primary for the new-but-up-in-the-air 3rd District seat based around Columbus: Former Ohio state House Minority Leader Joyce Beatty, who is currently a vice president at the Ohio State University. (Alumni will kill you if you leave off the "the.") If this district remains on the books in its current form, expect a crowded race on the Dem side.
• SD-AL: As expected, Matt Varilek, a top aide to Dem Sen. Tim Johnson, has announced that he will indeed challenge GOP freshman Kristi Noem. In order to run, Varilek resigned his congressional job, but he did secure Johnson's endorsement in the process. Varilek's name first surfaced back in May, and he joins Minehaha County Commissioner Jeff Barth in the Democratic primary. Both men had kind words for each other and on Friday spent their time targeting Noem rather than one another, with Varilek highlighting her votes to "privatize Medicare and protect subsidies for the oil and gas industry."
• TN-03: Despite losing a crowded primary last year by a narrow 30-28 margin, former state GOP chair Robin Smith says she won't challenge now-incumbent Rep. Chuck Fleischmann for the Republican nomination. Fleischmann isn't home free, though, as he still faces a race against Weston Wamp, the 24-year-old son of ex-Rep. Zach Wamp (the guy who used to hold this seat until this year). Poli sci professor Jean Howard-Hill is also running.
• TX-10, TX-06: In the wake of the new court-drawn interim congressional map, the San Antonio Express-News has a good roundup of some potential Democratic candidates that we haven't yet mentioned. In the 10th, 2008 nominee Larry Joe Doherty is a possibility, as, apparently, is Michael Skelly, who also ran for congress that year but in TX-07 against John Culberson. From what I understand, though, Skelly does not live in the new 10th.
While we're on the topic, how about this guy as an idea for the 10th? (This is purely my own speculation.) Last cycle, Democratic businessman Jack McDonald began putting together what looked like a very serious challenge to GOP Rep. Mike McCaul, raising almost a million bucks in the off year, but then unexpectedly pulled the plug in December, just a week after converting from "exploratory" to "official." I can't blame a guy for not wanting to run in 2010, though I don't think McDonald made a lot of friends by dropping out right at the filing deadline; still, I'm curious to know what he's up to now.
Meanwhile, over in the 6th, while ex-Rep. Chet Edwards has remained mum so far, the Express-News says there are a couple of other Democratic names who could make a go of it: former state Rep. Chris Turner, a longtime Edwards aide, and former state Rep. Allen Vaught.
• TX-34: GOP freshman Blake Farenthold himself confirms what his campaign staff had already said: that he will "most likely" run in the new, court-drawn Republican vote sink that is the 34th District, rather than the now-very-Democratic 27th CD, which he presently represents. As Farenthold notes, though, only a tiny fraction of his current constituents (something like 14-15%) live in the new 34th, so he's almost sure to have a hell of a time in the primary.
• TX-35: Unsurprisingly, ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez will not have the Democratic primary to himself in the new (and blue) 35th CD. Bexar County Tax Assessor-Collector Sylvia Romo says she, too, plans to run. And another Dem, former San Antonio City Councilman Richard Perez, adds that he's also looking at the race. Meanwhile, former Pearsall City Manager Albert Uresti (brother of state Sen. Carlos Uresti) has decided against a congressional bid and will seek Romo's current post instead.
Other Races:
• MI Recall: Candidates have been selected for the Feb. 28 special election to replace recalled GOP state Rep. Paul Scott in Michigan's 51st House District. Democrats have tapped Linden School Board member Steven Losey, while Republicans previously nominated Genesee County Commissioner Joseph Graves.
Grab Bag:
• WATN?: Politico's Alex Isenstadt has a good, lengthy examination of the decline and fall of Artur Davis, former congressman and eternal loser. Here's one nice detail, a fresh quote from the still-wounded Artur about his refusal to endorse the man who beat him in last year's gubernatorial primary, Ron Sparks: “I think he would have been a lousy governor, and I said that during the campaign.”
Redistricting Roundup:
• NY Redistricting: Good news for Democrats: A trial-court judge has rejected a GOP challenge to a new law requiring that prisoners be counted in their hometowns, rather than their places of incarceration, for the purposes of redistricting. Republicans say they will appeal.
