The clear-cut #2 candidate in the GOP right now (Larry Downing/Reuters)
For most of the 2012 campaign cycle, Mitt Romney has either been a clear leader in the GOP field, or he has been thrust into a co-leader role with a perpetually shifting anti-Mitt.
Not anymore. Tuesday's polling data confirms that Mitt Romney can no longer accurately been dubbed the "co-leader" in the GOP presidential sweepstakes. He is clearly #2, and former Speaker Newt Gingrich is clearly numero uno.
First, the data, and then the analysis beneath the fold:
NATIONAL (Gallup): Gingrich 37, Romney 22, Paul 8, Perry 7, Bachmann 6, Santorum 3, Huntsman 1
NATIONAL (Poll Position): Gingrich 37, Romney 23, Paul 7, Bachmann 6, Perry 3, Huntsman 2, Santorum 2
COLORADO (PPP): Gingrich 37, Romney 18, Bachmann 9, Paul 6, Perry 4, Santorum 4, Huntsman 3
IOWA (ABC/WaPo): Gingrich 33, Paul 18, Romney 18, Perry 11, Bachmann 8, Santorum 7, Huntsman 2
IOWA (CBS/NYT): Gingrich 31, Romney 17, Paul 16, Perry 11, Bachmann 9, Santorum 4, Huntsman 1
IOWA (We Ask America--R): Gingrich 30, Romney 16, Paul 14, Bachmann 13, Perry 7, Santorum 4, Huntsman 3
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Gingrich 51, Romney 14, Bachmann 8, Paul 7, Perry 4, Santorum 3, Huntsman 1
SOUTH CAROLINA (Winthrop): Gingrich 38, Romney 22, Perry 9, Cain 7, Bachmann 5, Paul 4, Santorum 3, Huntsman 1
For what it is worth, we also got a smattering of general election returns on the national level Tuesday, with the president trailing only when Rasmussen paired Obama against "Republican Jesus" (also known as a Generic Republican):
NATIONAL (Daily Kos/SEIU by PPP): Obama d. Generic Republican (48-43); Obama d. Gingrich (50-42)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Generic Republican d. Obama (49-41)
Jump across the fold for some thoughts about what Tuesday's numbers are telling us.
What makes Tuesday's array of polling so compelling is the relative stability, particularly in Iowa. Despite three different data points in Iowa, with three very different pollsters, the Gingrich lead over Mitt Romney ranged only a single point, with the pollsters reporting an edge of either 14 or 15 percent. What's more, the actual vote shares in each poll were pretty tight as well, with Gingrich in the low 30s and Romney (and Ron Paul) mired in the mid-to-upper teens.
Gingrich also shows some regional strength in leading not only in the South (the Carolinas) but also in the inter-mountain West (Colorado). Such cross-regional appeal led PPP's wordsmith Tom Jensen to opine that:
Based on the national polling and what we're seeing in our state polling, I'd guess Newt leads everywhere but New England/MI right now.
To put it another way, Romney's only pockets of strength right now are places that are, for all intents and purposes, his home territories.
If there is any ray of light for Romney, it is the finding in PPP's two state polls today (and their Iowa tracker yesterday), that if Gingrich bombs between now and the actual voting, Republicans will finally gravitate back towards Romney. But, all things considered, if you want to be the nominee, hoping for an opponent's implosion is not the strongest hand to play.
More polling is expected tomorrow, but the past several days have made it clear that it is now Romney chasing Gingrich, and not vice versa. What we have yet to see, however, is the Gingrich surge in the GOP paying him dividends in a general election. This week's Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll tested an Obama-Gingrich showdown, and found the president (despite underwater approval numbers) leading Gingrich by a wider margin than he enjoyed in his 2008 victory over John McCain (8 percent--50/42).
That may prove to be the number to watch in coming weeks: if Gingrich stays the undisputed leader on the GOP front, will the general election numbers change? If they don't, expect the stream of anti-Gingrich quips from establishment Republicans to become a freaking deluge.
