Before we hit the numbers, a quick programming note. The polling Wrap returns on Monday night, while the normal weekend digest will remain in its now-customary position on Saturday evenings.
Now, for those GOP primary numbers:
NATIONAL (Fox News): Gingrich 36, Romney 23, Paul 12, Perry 8, Bachmann 5, Santorum 4, Huntsman 2
NATIONAL (Gallup): Gingrich 37, Romney 23, Paul 9, Bachmann 6, Perry 6, Santorum 2, Huntsman 1
GEORGIA (Insider Advantage): Gingrich 54, Romney 12, Paul 6, Bachmann 4, Perry 3, Huntsman 2, Santorum 2
MICHIGAN (Strategic National--R): Gingrich 31, Romney 29, Paul 7, Bachmann 6, Huntsman 4, Perry 3, Santorum 3
And on the general election front, the "electability gap" continues onward, with the notable exception of West Virginia. Nationally though there is an interesting potential trend that might be bad news for the GOP. Hit the "continue reading" button underneath for that nugget of analysis:
NATIONAL (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (44-42); Obama d. Gingrich (46-40)
PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College): Obama d. Romney (45-41); Obama d. Gingrich (52-35); Obama d. Perry (48-30); Obama d. Cain (55-28)
WEST VIRGINIA (Blankenship Enterprises): Romney d. Obama (45-38); Gingrich d. Obama (54-35)
I don't necessarily relish drawing trends from polling paid for by the Fox News Channel. That's in spite of the fact that their new polling contract is with a consortium made up of one Republican pollster and one Democratic pollster (though, as Dana Houle pointed out today on Twitter, it's a bit tough finding Democratic clients for their Democratic pollster).
But there is something inside those numbers today that's worth notiing: with another month elapsed in the Republican presidential primary, the Newt Gingrich surge has not carried over to the general election. In last month's Fox News poll, Gingrich trailed Barack Obama by a five percent margin (46-41). Friday's release of the new Fox News polling put Gingrich behind Obama by ... six percent (46-40). Despite a huge surge in Republican supporters, his general election numbers have barely quaked. A simple logic that would explain this is that his newfound popularity with the GOP base didn't earn him any new votes--they were voting anti-Obama no matter what. So, the question would be whether his newfound return to the spotlight would cause Independent and Democratic voters to re-evaluate Gingrich. As of yet, that isn't the case.
However, there is some (slightly) more significant general election movement, and it is to the GOP's detriment. The Gingrich rise, of course, is also a Romney fall. And it does seem to be taking a toll on the former Massachusetts Governor, however modest. Last month, Romney led Obama by two points in the FNC poll. Today, he trails by the same margin. Over the past couple of weeks, there has been a slight erosion in Romney's fortunes when paired with Obama. In September and October, Mitt Romney led or tied in half of the 26 national polls conducted. In polls conducted exclusively in November and December, Mitt Romney has led or tied in only two out of 13 national polls.
To put it another way, the winner of the Republican primary, as has often been joked, may well be Barack Obama.
