ABC's Jonathan Karl
predicts:
House Republicans will soon – probably within 24 hours – cave in and accept the two-month extension of the payroll tax cut passed last week by the Senate.
I base this on conversations with House Republicans who know they are losing the public relations battle and losing it badly. They know they are taking the blame for a stand-off that threatens to raise taxes on 160 million Americans. And they cannot let that happen.
As one top House Republican aide just told me: “I do not expect taxes to go up on January 1st.”
At this point, there is really only one way for taxes not to go up on January 1st: House Republicans need to fold. Democrats won’t give in because they are completely confident that House Republicans will take the blame for the impasse. And Republicans don’t disagree.
Anything other than what Karl suggests seems completely implausible. But then again, this is the House Republicans we're talking about. They've been known to do implausible things from time to time. Still, logic says they need to cave—and quickly. But I'm not so sure about this:
Republicans are now searching for a face-saving way to give up. The most likely scenario would be for Democrats to agree to negotiations on a full-year extension to begin as soon as next week – but only after the House passes the two-month extension.
That's exactly what Democrats have been asking for all along, and I don't see how giving Democrats everything they want qualifies as saving face. But if Republicans want to define doing what Democrats want as victory, I'm not going to complain.