Mark Blumenthal sets up this Iowa poll perfectly:
On New Year's Eve exactly four years ago, the Des Moines Register released its final poll of Iowa caucus-goers and turned the political world upside down.
While the newspaper's final Iowa Caucus poll of 2011, set to be published Saturday night at 7 p.m. Central Time (8 p.m. Eastern Time), may not confound the conventional wisdom this time, it is among the most eagerly anticipated political polls of the season for good reason. The Register has a hard-earned reputation for accuracy grounded in the fundamentals of survey research: Assume as little as possible about the likely caucus-goers, and let the voters speak for themselves.
So here's the topline (MoE plus/minus 4 for full four day poll , plus/minus 5.6 for last 2 days):
Mitt Romney tops the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in the closing days before the Iowa caucuses, but Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are poised within striking distance.
The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.
But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.
“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.
And you know what? It's still really close (unless your name is Perry or Gingrich.) Romney's the favorite, but Santorum could win. Why?
Another sign of the race’s volatility: 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds.
That's because they are not sold on Romney, and the 75% non-Romney vote is still looking for a home.
There are three things that make a caucus survey hard to do:
1. getting the voter choices right (basic)
2. figuring out second choices (less relevant for this R caucus, but key for the 2008 D caucus)
3. guesstimating and gaming out who is likely to show - and why
That last one is huge, and with tomorrow's scheduled release of detailed analysis, we might know more.
An AP story earlier today notes this:
This year, polls have consistently shown two dominant themes in the GOP race:
—A tepid response to the GOP field among Republican voters.
Earlier this month, an AP-GfK poll found that amid Gingrich’s rise, Republican dissatisfaction with the lineup of candidates also rose. The wild swings among the anyone-but-Romney crowd have lifted nearly all of the candidates at some point this year, but none has fit the bill exactly.
Republicans don’t actively dislike Romney, with 73 percent saying he’s a strong leader and 81 percent calling him likable. But his best showing in any poll this year remains around 30 percent, and no other candidate has pulled a strong showing among the remaining 70 percent of the party.
—A deep anger among Republicans toward Obama.
Why the deep anger?
Maybe this:
If Romney wins, or if someone else does, it won't change the driving force among Republicans, who are against Obama and not for the nominee. But ask President Kerry if that's enough to win with.
