If you were otherwise Occupied, the Des Moines Register Iowa poll (MoE plus/minus 4 for full four day poll , plus/minus 5.6 for last 2 days) came out last night, and with your assistance, we had a chance to dissect some of the top-line numbers. The big story wasn't that Mitt Romney's super PAC money led, it's that Rick Santorum was gaining:
In four days of polling, Romney leads at 24 percent, Paul has 22 percent and Rick Santorum, 15 percent.
But if the final two days of polling stand alone, the order reshuffles: Santorum elbows out Paul for second.
“Few saw this bombshell coming,” GOP strategist David Polyansky said. “In an already unpredictable race this is another stunning turn of political fortune.”
What makes Santorum’s growth spurt particularly striking is his last-second rise: He averaged 10 points after the first two nights of polling, but doubled that during the second two nights. Looking just at the final day of polling, he was just one point down from Romney’s 23 percent on Friday.
But no one has won yet—the vote's not until Tuesday, and any of the top three can grab the ring.
This morning, the DMR published more of its data, and for those who want to explore, here's the details (.pdf) Further, some published highlights this morning show why Mitt's still the favorite (making a win expected and a loss that much tougher for him):
Mitt Romney is viewed as most electable, the poll shows.
The former Massachusetts governor also wins the “best to bring about real change” category. And 78 percent would be very enthusiastic or OK with the choice if he were the nominee — the highest enthusiasm of the three candidates tested.
Which caucusgoers like Romney? The poll shows the former Massachusetts governor has strengths with older and wealthier Iowans, and tea party supporters.
Older folks show. Who else will show? It's the new folks that won it for Obama in 2008.
Here's the analysis for the Santorum surge:
Just 3 percent of likely caucusgoers say Rick Santorum is the candidate they like least.
But they don’t think he excels at anything either.
On many of the nine favorable attributes the Register tested, such as most electable or most knowledgeable, he had low rankings. He did best on “relating to ordinary Iowans.”
If Michele Bachmann or Ron Paul were to drop out, Santorum claims a plurality of their first-choice supporters.
(Mitt Romney claims the plurality of Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry supporters. And Paul does not win the plurality of any candidate’s first-choice supporters, which may reflect his increasing weakness, the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer, said.)
Who’s most keen on Santorum? Evangelical, very conservative, very socially conservative, middle-aged caucusgoers, and the strong supporters of the tea party movement.
So, if there's any doubt Santorum's main (and only) strength is that he's not Mitt Romney, you're looking at a good argument to remove those doubts.
Whereas the top-line says Mitt wins with traditional voters, the bottom line is that if "Evangelical, very conservative, very socially conservative, middle-aged caucusgoers, and the strong supporters of the tea party movement" are the majority of caucus-goers (and remember, this is Iowa), Santorum can win. Not win the nomination (he has money and organization woes, as well as a message that might not play well outside of Iowa), but give Romney a bloody (we do not accept you, Mitt) nose.
What about the also-rans? This year's Fred Thompson, Rick Perry:
Adding together first- and second-choice votes gives a sense of candidates’ breadth of support, said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.
Perry comes in fourth. It’s Mitt Romney with 37 percent, Ron Paul with 33 percent, Santorum at 30 percent, Perry with 26 percent and Newt Gingrich at 23 percent
Second-choice votes don't count this time (Republican rules call for a straight secret ballot), but note the absence of Michele (I'm a serious candidate) Bachmann:
Bachmann, a congresswoman from Minnesota, ties with Gingrich as the least able to bring about real change, and 26 percent say she is the candidate who knows the least. She leads on that dubious measure.
The best day of her Iowa campaign was Aug. 13, the day of the straw poll. The worst day was Aug. 14, right after the straw poll, when Rick Perry sauntered into her native Waterloo and sapped all her energy.
She's at 7% and likely to be out after this.
And as a special treat for political junkies, DMR published this fascinating interview with Ann Selzer (the pollster) gaming out various "who shows" scenarios:
At some point, we have to stop interviewing for our Iowa Poll and publish our findings. That is just a fact of life.
But what if there is a late-breaking surge of evangelicals who decide to caucus at the last moment? What if seniors, who appear less likely to attend the Republican caucuses this time than in 2008, change their minds and come out caucus night in numbers similar to last time? What if disaffected supporters of Barack Obama decide to caucus on the Republican side this time around?
Yogi Berra famously said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Well said.
If you've read down this far, you'll see that evangelicals help Santorum and seniors help Romney. Nothing can help Perry and Bachmann.
But that's been true for a while.
