Analysis of the super-gerrymandered (hacked up or carefully carved) districts and predictions to November of this year. If the new districts hold up in court, this is my take on things. Many districts have packed a high concentration of Democrats along with creating a good number of luke-warm Republican districts that are just out of reach for Democrats most of the time. I used DRA as much as I could to get '08 and '10 numbers and a look back at the last five elections in terms of which party has held the seat to base my predictions. Of course, retirements of legislators, some legislators needing to move to serve their own district (or new legislators found), dynamic candidates coming forward, and current events in WI could flip some of the districts due to turnout in November.
Here is a link to the Assembly maps, both current map and the one to be used in this year's November election: Wisconsin Assembly and Senate Maps
I used actual seat/district numbers here. Some districts shifted or are totally renumbered (ie, Eau Claire area, Madison area, and Racine/Kenosha area).
Current R districts that are safe or likely R districts: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 14, 21, 23, 24, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 36, 38, 39, 40, 41, 52, 53, 55, 56, 58, 59, 60, 63, 67, 69, 82, 83, 84, 86, 87, 89, 93, 97, 98, 99. (42 districts)
Current I who acts like an R that is a safe I/R district: 25. (1 district)
Current D districts that are safe or likely R districts: 13, 15, 22, 37, 42, 61, 62. (7 districts)
Current R districts that COULD be in play: 31, 35, 50, 68, 75, 96. (6 districts)
Current R districts that ARE in play: 1, 49, 51, 72, 88. (5 districts)
Current D districts that ARE in play: 20, 70. (2 districts)
Current D districts that COULD be in play: none (0 districts)
Current R districts that are safe or likely D districts: 43, 44, 45, 47, 66, 90. (6 districts)
Current D districts that are safe or likely D districts: 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 46, 48, 54, 57, 64, 65, 71, 73, 74, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 85, 91, 92, 94, 95. (30 districts)
Based on the above, even in the BEST CASE Democratic scenario, and we win everything that is safe and even everything that is in play, we would hold 49 of the 99 seats of the Assembly. Not quite a majority, but close. As the decade progresses, we will have to really work on some of the districts in the Solid/Likely R list that could flip when current legislators retire or resign (including my own in the 86th district). Things look bad, but they are NOT totally out of reach.
As I get time, I may provide some profiles on some of the districts "in play" or are flippable between parties.
