Below is our spreadsheet containing presidential election results for the 2008 election between Barack Obama and John McCain according to the new congressional districts first used in 2012. For presidential election results for the 2000 and 2004 elections for the districts used from 2006 to 2010, click here.
Some of these numbers come from official sources. Most were calculated by us, using publicly available data. We are committed to transparency at Daily Kos, so we also provide links to all of our source spreadsheets." For the sake of comparison, we have also included results for the same election under the district lines that were used in the 2008 election. This data was also compiled by us. You can review our earlier work here.
In the right-most column, we include our best assessment for each new district's predecessor. Be careful, though, because it's not an exact science—some districts have clear predecessors, while others don't. Note that more than 100 districts have been renumbered, so direct comparisons between districts sharing the same number are not always possible. Predecessor districts whose successors do not share the same number are marked in bold.
(New districts and discontinued districts are noted with dashed lines in the appropriate columns.)
Here's our general methodology for assigning predecessor districts:
- If an incumbent sought re-election, then their old district number was used. That's true even where an incumbent ran for a seat with a different number. For example, Jim Matheson ran in UT-04, even though his old district was UT-02. So we've marked UT-02 as the predecessor to UT-04.
- If an incumbent retired but it was reasonably clear where they would have sough re-election, then his or her old district number is used. For example, Gary Ackerman was planning to run in NY-06 before announcing his retirement, so his old district, NY-05, is marked as the predecessor.
- If two incumbents faced off against each other, we had marked both districts as predecessors. After one incumbent won the primary, then we left only the winner's district. For example, see PA-12, where Mark Critz beat Jason Altmire (who had represented PA-04) in the Democratic primary.
- If a district was newly created thanks to reapportionment, then we have not marked any predecessor. Example: AZ-09. Note that in some cases, states have renumbered, or incumbents have made particular re-election choices, so that the "new" districts are not always those with the highest number. Example: UT-02, as mentioned above.
Beyond this, we've had to make some judgment calls, mostly in California, where the lines were completely overhauled.
