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8:09 AM PT: NY Redistricting: This is annoying. The legislative maps that LATFOR promised today now may not be coming after all. Grr.
9:43 AM PT: PA-AG: Some big news in the Pennsylvania attorney general Democratic primary: Former Philadelphia prosecutor Dan McCaffery is reportedly dropping out. McCaffery came in second place to ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy at a recent meeting where the state party decided whether to formally endorse a candidate. (No one cleared the two-thirds threshold, though Murphy came close.) That leaves just Murphy and former Lackawanna County prosecutor Kathleen Kane in the race.
9:44 AM PT: NY Redistricting: I give up. What a bunch of jokers. How hard is this?
10:04 AM PT: SC-01: It appears that Newt Gingrich did not make a clean sweep of South Carolina after all. A weird reporting error has finally been resolved in South Carolina's Berkeley County, where for days after the Republican primary, several precincts still appeared to have recorded no votes. (If you're curious, it turns out that the election officials were incorrectly treating a number of precincts that had been consolidated into one, like "Whitesville," as still being split into multiple precincts—in this particular case "Whitesville 1" and "Whitesville 2.")
In any event, with results fully reported, our analysis shows that Mitt Romney won the vote in the 1st Congressional District (of which Berkeley is part), 36,606 to 35,195 (35.6% to 34.3%). Because South Carolina awards two delegates to the winner of each CD, it looks like Gingrich will net 23 delegates (two for each of the six districts he did win, plus 11 for winning statewide) and Romney will nab those final two from SC-01.
10:22 AM PT: House Majority PAC: The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC (a super PAC) has once again released a whole bunch of polls of congressional races in GOP-held districts. It's the second time they've done something like this, but unlike the previous occasion, where they only asked about generic re-elects, this time they've included some actual head-to-heads featuring actual candidates. We'll take a closer look at this soon, but for now, you can click the first link to find all the numbers.
10:41 AM PT: WI-Gov: Prof. Charles Franklin's polling shop at Marquette Law School has a new survey out for the Scott Walker recall election. We'll take a closer look at these numbers shortly, but for now, here's a summary of the toplines:
The poll finds Walker ahead of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by a 50 percent to 44 percent margin. Walker leads the only announced Democratic candidate, former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, with a 49 percent to 42 percent margin. Walker leads former Congressman David Obey by 49 percent to 43 percent. Janesville Democratic State Senator Tim Cullen receives 40 percent to Walker’s 50 percent.
11:16 AM PT: AZ-01: In the wake of Rep. Paul Gosar cutting and running for the friendlier confines of AZ-04, Republicans have finally found their first legitimate contender for the suddenly open 1st District: former state Sen. Jonathan Paton. Paton, you may recall, was the establishment choice in AZ-08 last cycle, but he lost the primary to teabagger Jesse Kelly, who went on to a narrow defeat by, of course, Rep. Gabby Giffords. Speaking of Giffords, Paton had also been cited by the Great Mentioner as a possible candidate in the 8th CD special election, but obviously he has other ideas in mind.
Other possible GOP candidates include former state Rep. Bill Konopnicki and ex-Corporation Commissioner Gary Pierce, while ex-Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick and attorney Wenona Benally Baldenegro are both seeking the Democratic nod.
11:23 AM PT: Passings: Former Rhode Island Gov. Joseph Garrahy, a Democrat who served from 1977 to 1985, died on Tuesday at the age of 81. Somewhat amusingly, in the AP's lede, they say Garrahy was "remembered by many in the state for the flannel shirt he wore while leading the state through the blizzard of 1978."
11:36 AM PT: IA-03: The House Majority PAC is reportedly planning to go on the air with a $200K on behalf of Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell, who faces an incumbent-vs.-incumbent fight with GOP Rep. Tom Latham in the redrawn 3rd District. I don't see a copy of the ad on HMP's YouTube page, though.
12:10 PM PT: AZ-Sen: Democrat Don Bivens isn't posting his press releases to his website, but he's been stepping up his attacks on his primary opponent, Richard Carmona—and he's playing a dirty game. Carmona unwisely said a few words in Mitt Romney's defense the other day, enough that any competent campaign could make plenty of hay. But that's not enough for the Bivens campaign, which has now twice claimed Carmona said things he didn't actually say. From Bivens' press release on Tuesday:
But U.S. Senate candidate Carmona, who has been a Democrat for only a few months, said that “criticism of Romney’s private equity background is misguided” and that the only priority for companies like Bain should be to “make a profit for investors."
Not true. Carmona didn't say the first phrase included in quotes. That was the reporter's phrasing:
Carmona — whose resume includes a business background as well as work with the U.S. Special Forces and the Pima County SWAT team — feels some of the criticism of Romney’s private equity background is misguided.
He also didn't say the second quoted phrase either:
Carmona said a function of a private equity firm is to come in and buy companies — some of them in financial trouble — and see if they make a profit for investors.
Again, it's the reporter's phrasing, but even more importantly, the reporter said "a" function, not the "only" function, as Bivens' release would have it. They were at it again today, with yet another deliberately misleading release:
Carmona, defending Romney, said that any “criticism of Romney’s private equity background is misguided” and that the priority for companies like Bain should be to “make a profit for investors.”
Once more, no, Carmona didn't say the first phrase, and once more, Bivens is adding words that are actually contradicted by what's in the article. The reporter specifically said "some" criticism of Romney, not "any" criticism. And this time, Bivens says "the" priority, though as I noted above, the reporter said "a" priority—and again, it wasn't a direct quote from Carmona.
I'm all for rough-and-tumble politics. I don't believe in the Marquess of Queensberry rules. But nor do I believe in bullsh*t attacks that rely on fabrications, especially by one Democrat against another. Again I say, Carmona shouldn't have defended Romney and deserves to take crap for it. But not like this. This kind of duplicity speaks very, very poorly of Bivens and reeks of desperation.
12:23 PM PT: IL-08: Tammy Duckworth is out with her second poll of the Democratic primary from Normington Petts, and she continues to maintain a big edge over Raja Krishnamoorthi. She leads 59-17, which is predictably somewhat tighter than the 69-8 margin she sported last July. For good measure, Duckworth's polling memo throws in a quote from Obama advisor David Axelrod ("I have never seen anyone overcome a 42-point deficit this late in the race"), probably just as a little reminder about the kind of firepower they have on their side. The primary is March 20.
12:26 PM PT: IL-10: Democrat Brad Schneider just received the endorsement of a couple of local unions: IBEW Local 134 and Ironworkers Local 63.
12:27 PM PT: HI-Sen: Linda Lingle (R): $1.8 mil raised (holy moly)
12:32 PM PT: MN-06: Looks like we'll still have Michele Bachmann to kick around, for one more term at least. The failed Republican presidential hopeful and immunology expert declared that she'd seek re-election this year, which is at least a little bit surprising to me. (After seeing her flail on the campaign trail this year, I just felt like she didn't have her heart in it anymore.) While redistricting is still up in the air (we're waiting for a court ruling on a new map), I expect Bachmann will wind up with a pretty safe district to run in, and you also gotta figure that all the other Republicans who had been hoping for their turn if she retired won't risk a primary challenge. Boring, but whatcha gonna do?
12:45 PM PT: NJ-09: Okay. I'm long past tired of this crap. When the GOP pretended as though they'd mashed up Rep. Steve Rothman's district with Republican Scott Garrett's, this is exactly the kind of outcome they dreamed about. In reality, Rothman was pushed into the same district as fellow Dem Bill Pascrell, and now Pascrell is getting ugly:
"Mr. Garrett will continue to try to slash and burn budgeting tactics with no thought about the impact on the middle class," yelled Pascrell in the rain-spattered banquet hall. "We could have been one seat closer to that majority. Instead we are one seat further from a majority because my opponent chose to challenge me. It's unfortunate my opponent chose to cut and run instead of standing and fighting them, as I will continue to do." […]
Infuriated, Pascrell tonight charged Rothman with dereliction of duty.
"As a proud military veteran," the 15-year incumbent said, "I remember what the acronym AWOL means."
"You've never seen me run away from a fight," screamed Pascrell as people, Passaic County Democratic Chairman John Currie among them - cleared their seats. "I never ran from a fight in Congress. I never ran from a fight in the legislature. I never ran from a fight as mayor. I never ran from a fight on the streets."
Here's the cold, hard, empirical truth about the new 9th CD: Rothman currently represents 54% of its constituents, while Pascrell represents only 43%. By the numbers, that means if anyone has a better claim to this seat, Rothman does. As for the idea that he should have challenged Garrett in the revised 5th, Rothman represents only 21% of that district. By the same token, Pascrell represents a greater share—33%—of the constituents in Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen's redrawn 11th CD. So if Pascrell wants to claim that Rothman shirked a fight against Garrett, then he surely did the same if not worse vis-à-vis Frelinghuysen.
The fact is, this is what happens in redistricting. Incumbents get thrown together. Some people behave more selflessly than others, but expecting someone not to run in the seat where the represent a majority of the constituents is absurd. I'm all for Pascrell and Rothman duking it out, but I find the kinds of charges Pascrell is leveling to be baseless. What's more, you gotta ask yourself: If you're doing precisely what Republicans wished you do, should you really be doing it? The answer is obvious.
12:47 PM PT: IL-Sen: While GOP Sen. Mark Kirk undoubtedly has a very long way to go after his stroke—and while we'll probably hear all kinds of reports for many months, including some that may be contradictory—it's worth noting that his surgeon says Kirk is "doing better than I expected" and is "alert, answering questions and following commands."
1:00 PM PT: NY-Sen: Ah, such a typical fratboy. Just as a reminder, this is the kind of crap that appear on Republican Senate hopeful Mark Cenedella's blog, which he finally took responsibility for on Tuesday:
On his blog, which until recently was cross-posted on his company's website, he posted about and linked freely to just about anything. Among the things he cited or referenced were explicit pornography sites, publications that objectified women, volumes of material criticizing infamous Apprentice contestant Omarosa Manigault-Stallworth, and various stories about criminals that involved marijuana.
In a questionable choice for a man likely planning to challenge a female senator, he approvingly tweeted a photo of a knife sharpener in the shape of a woman being sliced in half.
He allows readers to ruminate on "Skanky vs. Sexy," and links to a site that offers dating advice for sluts. He also jokes that maybe he can "cotton to" the Bible after linking to a post that says the holy book advocates marriage between a man and one or more women.
Bitter about being called out for his d-bag antics, this is how Cenedella's campaign responded:
"Kirsten Gillibrand has once again shown today that she does not understand the Internet," he said in an emailed statement. "Last week she almost destroyed it with her PIPA legislation, and today she shows her ignorance about the blog world," he added, referring to the much-maligned anti-piracy bill that was shelved last week.
"The site in question, Stone.com, was a popular site between 2003-2008 with five or six authors, including Marc Cenedella," O'Reilly said. "It riffed off material moving around the Internet in those days. Stone didn't write the material Senator Gillibrand's opposition research team is spreading, it commented on it as did thousands of others. There is a huge difference between writing original content and remarking on that content. Ms. Gillibrand needs to do her homework."
So let me get this straight. If you approvingly write about douchey shit for years, but link to other sites where the douchey shit originated, then you can't be called on for your garbage? And if someone does criticize you for it, then they "do not understand the Internet"? I think, actually, that Mark Cenedella does not understand politics.
1:50 PM PT: CA-35: Looks like Rep. Joe Baca is in "calling in favors" mode: He just announced endorsements from both of California's senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer. Why bother? Because he's facing a Democratic primary challenge from state Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod, because he doesn't actually live in the new 35th (he's from Rialto in the neighboring 31st), and because he only currently represents about 61% of the constituents of the district he's looking to represent. I'll be very curious to see what 4Q fundraising reports look like here.
2:01 PM PT: NY-15: According to PolitickerNY, Democratic state Sen. Adriano Espaillat is considering a run in the 15th District, depending upon the outcome of redistricting (and in particular, how Latino the seat becomes). This district, of course, is currently represented by veteran Dem Charlie Rangel, and a whole bunch of other folks are thinking about a run, even if Rangel doesn't retire. But I suspect it'll be a while before we get any clarity here.
2:06 PM PT: OR-01: Republican Rob Cornilles invokes the specter of disgraced ex-Rep. David Wu in what is probably his closing TV spot, a half-negative, half-positive ad in which he repeats some earlier criticism of Suzanne Bonamici then tries to finish strong by once again claiming to be a "job creator":
No word on the size of the buy, of course, though he's been
badly outspent on the airwaves, as Dave Catanese notes. The all-mail election is on Jan. 31, but ballots were sent out on Jan. 13, so many have already voted.
2:11 PM PT: SC-07: Chad Prosser, a former Horry County Council chair and a former state parks director under ex-Gov. Mark Sanford, is joining the busy Republican field in the state's brand-new 7th Congressional District.
2:39 PM PT: PA-AG: McCaffery confirms that he's out. (See above.)
3:38 PM PT: PA Redistricting: Well, this sure shakes things up! In response to challenge to the state's new legislative maps, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has invalidated the plans and ordered the redistricting commission which drew them up in the first place to start over again. The court only issued a terse order, though, and hasn't yet released its reasoning, so it's not clear what kind of changes they'll demand and why. But it's hard to see this as anything other than good news for Democrats, who were the chief opponents of these maps (which were, of course, drawn by Republicans). Needless to say, we'll be following further developments here closely.
3:52 PM PT: TN-03: If the TN-03 Republican primary turns into a clown-car, it looks like the guy who might make it happen will already come equipped with his own cream pies: Dairy magnate Scottie Mayfield says he may join the race, which already features the current incumbent, Chuck Fleischmann, and the son of the prior incumbent, Weston Wamp. Nooga.com says Mayfield's company, the eponymous Mayfield Dairy, is well-known throughout the region, and given its size, Mayfield himself (described as an "ice cream mogul"—gonna have to re-use that) may be fairly wealthy. So if he gets in, he might have a serious impact on the race, perhaps enough to split the vote and allow Fleischmann to escape.
4:06 PM PT: WV-Gov: Republican businessman Bill Maloney, who has been weighing a rematch ever since he lost last year's gubernatorial special election to Earl Ray Tomblin, is promising a "major announcement" on Thursday morning. Do you tout a "major announcement" if you aren't going to run for office? Maybe, if your ego is big enough. But I'd bet on Maloney making another go of it. And I don't see him being any more successful than he was last time.
4:23 PM PT: OH-Sen: Republican boy wonder Josh Mandel has received a lot of criticism that, ever since becoming state treasurer last year, he's been more focused on running for Senate than doing his actual, you know, job. Now comes this:
Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel hasn't attended a single monthly meeting of the powerful but mundane state board that decides which banks will hold billions in state deposits, records show.
It's common to send a designee to most meetings, but the total absence of Mandel, a first-term Republican, makes him unique among modern-era treasurers.
Meeting minutes, news clippings and interviews by The Associated Press show that every state treasurer since at least the early 1980s has some record of attending the Board of Deposit meetings in person. The treasurer serves as chairman.
4:29 PM PT: AZ-08: In an emotional ceremony on the House floor on Wednesday, now-former Rep. Gabby Giffords submitted her formal letter of resignation. Giffords' friend, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, read her speech for her. You can watch it here. We wish you the very best, Congresswoman.
4:31 PM PT: NC-07: Rep. Mike McIntyre (D): $194K raised, $687K cash-on-hand
NE-Sen: Don Stenberg (R): $250K raised
