Washington Post-ABC News poll, Feb 1-4, 2012
In a "no surprise" story, the new ABC News/Washington Post poll is reporting a clear Obama lead in the fall election:
Fifty percent of Americans in this new ABC News/Washington Post poll approve of Obama’s job performance, the most since spring. Fifty percent say he deserves re-election, better than Bill Clinton at the start of his re-election year and as good as George W. Bush a month before he won a second term. And Obama now leads Romney among registered voters by a slight 51-45 percent, the first time either has cracked 50 percent in a series of matchups since spring
ABC News cites economic recovery as a reason for Obama's improved job performance, but there's this (my bolded):
...questions focused on Romney’s wealth, his low tax burden and, relatedly, his ability to connect with average Americans. Notably, 52 percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, say the more they hear about Romney the less they like him – double the number who like him more.
In a separate write-up, the
Washington Post notes the fickle but important independent view:
Among political independents, who are likely to determine the outcome of the election, 47 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove of the way he is handling his job. The president’s approval rating among independents had dipped as low as 34 percent in the fall, and just a month ago, he faced a 10-point deficit here.
Elections are won with independents, clearly the Obama tone (including the well received State of the Union) works (or maybe it's his singing), and the Romney/GOP message message as of now does not. But here's something that'll follow Romney right until November: by 66-30, the public says Romney doesn't pay his fair share of taxes, something he can't now fix. Meanwhile Obama leads on the trust question for taxes by 10 (52-42) and in trust to better protect the interests of the middle class by 55-37. Romney's handling of the economy doesn't give him the lead, nor does his big lead on budget deficits. (Note to the media: deficits don't matter to the public the way you think they do.)
And in a clear signal as to how things are going, the Washington Post reports that "55 percent of those who are closely following the campaign say they disapprove of what the GOP candidates have been saying."
By all odds, this will remain a close election, but Obama has to start out as a slight favorite—and all that talk about who Obama's opponent is really does matter. He may not be Abraham Lincoln, but he's not running against Lincoln, either.
The full poll graphic is here, MoE plus/minus four.
