MassINC for WBUR. 2/6-9. Likely voters. MoE ±4.4%. (8/30-9/1 results):
Elizabeth Warren (D): 46 (35)
Scott Brown (R-inc): 43 (44)
Undecided: 11 (18)
Even though the Massachusetts Senate race may well be the first 2012 non-presidential race that comes to mind for a lot of people, it's actually been a while since we've seen a poll here. (The
most recent one was from UMass-Lowell back in early December, with a 49-42 Elizabeth Warren lead. And you have to really get in the wayback machine to find one with Scott Brown leading: WNEC's early-October poll, which had Brown up 47-42.) The fact that Warren is leading here in MassINC's second poll of the race is an especially good sign, since she trailed significantly in their last one from August (although it's worth noting that was the first poll where she came within double-digits of Brown); it shows that her momentum is continuing and that her charge into the lead last fall wasn't just a formal-announcement/primary-consolidation bump.
What's most eyebrow-raising here is that Brown is losing despite being better-liked; that anyone could be losing despite a 50/29 favorable, mostly because he belongs to the wrong party, is a testament to just how blue Massachusetts is. Another red flag for Brown, though: those faves are still down from MassInc's previous poll, where he was at 54/25. Warren is at 39/29, still a good number and improved from 17/13 in August, but the growth in her negatives also suggests that attempts by GOP outside groups to define her early have gotten at least some traction. (Also suggesting that the GOP hasn't completely lost the messaging war: Brown still polls higher than Warren on agreement with statements like "grew up in a middle class background" and "will stand up for regular people when in the Senate.")
Given Brown's favorables and his success at creating a bipartisan image for himself, and the fact that he's still not just losing but polling way down at 43% despite them, I'm really not sure how he gets to 50%+1 while still wearing the big scarlet "R" on his chest. (Although it doesn't help that the bipartisanship is so clearly stage-managed by partisans, as with today's revelation that his offer in the successful negotiation with the Warren camp about warding off third-party money was actually drafted by an NRSC lawyer.) With Brown still a proven fundraising machine, it's still best to view this as a tossup and refrain from pre-emptive victory dancing short of the end zone... but with Ben Nelson out of the picture, it's hard not to view Brown as the Senate's most endangered incumbent now.
The poll also has a presidential component; in case you were worried about Barack Obama's shot at the Bay State's 12 EVs, he has 60/30 favorables and leads Mitt Romney (with 39/46 faves) 55-34. They didn't bother to poll a Newt Gingrich scenario, but given that he has favorables of 9/72 (!) I can see why. [UPDATE: Oh... they did. Obama squeaks by 66-19.]
