Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning.
Sign up here.
:
• AZ-06: This sure is odd. I don't care about the Barney Frank business, but check this out:
House GOP Leaders are pushing a modest, but bipartisan bill called the JOBS Act, which includes a handful of measures with broad support in both parties. One measure in that bill would quadruple the number of shareholders that can invest in local banks. Republicans credit Rep. Ben Quayle (R-AZ) for drafting this portion of the legislation, but the real legwork on the issue was done in the Financial Services Committee — of which Frank is the ranking member — by Reps. David Schweikert (R-AZ) and Jim Himes (D-CT).
Now, I'm sure Ben Quayle is precisely the kind of entitled rich kid who is quite used to having his name slapped on top of other people's work. (Tell me he doesn't seem like the kind of kid who would have paid other students to write his term papers.) But what's interesting is not only that GOP leadership is fluffing Quayle (of all people), but that they're apparently doing so at the expense of the guy Quayle's running against in a member-vs.-member primary, David Schweikert. Surely House Republican brass can't prefer a fuckup like Ben "Brock Landers" Quayle to Schweikert, can they? Or is he being protected from up on high by the prince of darkness, like Verbal Kint in
The Usual Suspects?
Senate:
• LA-Sen, LA-06: While Dem Sen. Mary Landrieu's recent statement that she plans to seek re-election in 2014 is nothing new (she's said the same things many time before), if you're wondering who might take her on, the answer is probably 6th CD Rep. Bill Cassidy. Cassidy, you'll recall, first won a seat in Congress when he defeated Dem Rep. Don Cazayoux in 2008, thanks to a huge assist from then-state Rep. Michael Jackson, a Democrat who ran as an independent and siphoned enough votes away from Cazayoux to hand victory to the Republican. So seeing as Jackson permanently branded himself as an all-time asshole, I figure Cassidy's victory also at least ought to get marked with an asterisk.
• MA-Sen: I feel like there's rumors like this all the time: John Kerry for Secretary of State, John Kerry for Arena Football League commissioner, John Kerry for President... oh crap, that last one did actually happen, right? Sigh. Well, anyway, the latest is John Kerry for World Bank president, and if he were tapped, that would eventually set off yet another senatorial special election in the Bay State. Obviously, it's dark blue Massachusetts, so it's not like we'd ever have to worry about... oh crap. That one actually happened, too, didn't it?
• ME-Sen: Even though Dem ex-Gov. John Baldacci is circulating petitions to get on the ballot, he hasn't announced a bid—and may not do so for a while, since he currently works for the Dept. of Defense and can't engage in active politicking while doing so. He's supposedly wrapping up his gig this month, but even when he's done, he might not run for Senate after all: A throwaway line buried in a new Sun Journal article says, without actually quoting anyone, that Baldacci's campaign "was noncommittal about whether he was staying in the race."
• MO-Sen: Hoo boy. If Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill manages to survive her re-election campaign, she will have run a race for the ages, given the pounding she's taking. The latest is a new $300K ad buy from Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS; you can watch the new spot (which repeats the lie about the Affordable Care Act "cutting $500 billion from Medicare") at the link.
• MO-Sen: I think we need a more specialized term for a savior candidate—you know, the hero who parachutes in at the last moment to rescue a party from putting forward an otherwise crummy nominee. As we've been mentioning, Missouri Republicans have been praying that Auditor Tom Schweich will fill that role for them in the Senate race, and now a bunch of prominent local GOPers, led by ex-Sen. John Danforth, have penned an open letter to him, begging him to enter the race. The state's filing deadline is soon—March 27—but the primary is not until August 7.
• MT-Sen: Somehow I'd expect a Super PAC called the "Citizens for Strength and Security Fund" to be right-wingers, but whoever they are, they don't like the GOP's Denny Rehberg and they have a lot of money to emphasize that point. They're out with $400K in ad buys hitting Rehberg for accepting a congressional pay raise (and $400K goes a looooong way in thinly-populated Montana). (David Jarman)
• NE-Sen: Good news on the "Democratic unity" front. After pledging to stay in the Democratic primary despite Bob Kerrey's unexpected entry, University of Nebraska regent Chuck Hassebrook had a change of heart and decided to drop out—and endorse Kerrey. While Hassebrook understandably felt screwed because Kerrey's last-minute move meant he couldn't seek re-election as a regent, I'm guessing it became clear that he had little hope of actually being the Democratic Senate nominee, making this the obvious move.
• NE-Sen: South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint is back to his kingmaking ways, trying to build a bloc of new right-wing senators who owe him a few favors. His biggest beneficiary so far this cycle seems to be Nebraska state Treasurer Don Stenberg. DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund PAC is running its second ad on behalf of Stenberg; the buy is $234K, pretty substantial for Nebraska. Stenberg has been running a fairly-distant second to AG Jon Bruning in most polls of the GOP primary for the open seat being vacated by Ben Nelson, and he hasn't had much fundraising luck on his own, so if he does win here, he'll definitely be in DeMint's debt. (You can see the ad at the link.) (David Jarman)
• WI-Sen: We've been hearing his name mentioned as a possibility for months and months, and now he's finally decided to throw his hat in the ring: Eric Hovde, who's never held office before but has piles of his own hedge-fund money (and he's said he might spend $10 million of it). He apparently also some name rec from being a talking head on economy-themed news shows. Questions that remain: 1) considering how long he's lived in the Washington, D.C. area, how does Hovde make the case he's a Wisconsinite? and 2) does he further help Tommy Thompson by splitting the non-Thompson share, or does he hurt Thompson by splitting the "moderate" vote? (David Jarman)
Gubernatorial:
• MT-Gov: Alright, so Neil Livingstone is a no-hoper when it comes to winning the Republican gubernatorial nomination—after all, he was busted last year for trying to solicit Moammar Qadaffi with the pitch that he and his business partners would lobby the U.S. government on behalf of his sorry ass (while the bombs were still falling). But blogger Montana Cowgirl has a catch that's just too good to pass up: On Livingstone's official website bio, he sees fit to mention that he was once a guest "on a yacht full of hookers in Monte Carlo." Is he running for Hugh Hefner? Believe it or not, as MT Cowgirl says, that's just the tip of the iceberg—click through for the rest of the highlights.
House:
• AL-01, AL-06: No rest for the weirdoes: The Campaign for Primary Accountability, fresh off a split decision in the Ohio primaries earlier this week, is ramping up spending on behalf of two challengers to Republican incumbents in Alabama, who go before voters on Tuesday. The CPA, which truly seems to have no ideology beyond "let's defeat incumbents," spent heavily against Democrat Marcy Kaptur and Republican Jean Schmidt in the Buckeye State; Kaptur, of course, rocked Dennis Kucinich, but Schmidt was upset by surgeon Brad Wenstrup.
Now, down in Alabama, they want to see the odious Scott Beason unseat the awful Spencer Bachus in the 6th, and they're also hoping Dean Young can somehow knock off Jo Bonner in the 1st. They recently forked out about $150K in independent expenditures, mostly in the Bachus race, where they have a new ad going after the incumbent for supporting the Wall Street bailout. The spot also mentions the ongoing investigation of Bachus for alleged insider trading based on nonpublic information he learned as a member of Congress. Beason, a state senator, has raised just a fraction of what Bachus has, so he'll need whatever help he can get. But Bachus appears to be taking things seriously, and may even be nervous: He's aired three ads, and the latest includes an attack on Beason and an attempt to defend himself on the insider trading charges.
The situation in the 1st is much more of a longshot, but Young, a businessman, has plowed about $190K of his own money in the race, and he's goaded Bonner into spending a rather hefty $643K, which goes a long way in Alabama. Between the two, Bachus is almost certainly the more vulnerable, and part of it has to do with how well he "performs," ideologically speaking. Bachus is a rank-and-file conservative, but sits in a district that should be electing Genghis Khan. Indeed, the old 6th, based on Cook PVI, is literally the reddest seat in the nation; even after redistricting, it still has to be near the very top. As it so happens, David Jarman will explore this very issue (on a national basis) in a forthcoming essay this Sunday.
• FL-22: Well, that's a bummer: After considering the race for a few weeks, Broward County Commissioner Chip LaMarca says he won't run in the redrawn 22nd District. Had he done so, it would have set up a nice, messy primary with former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner in an already-blue district where a race to the right to capture the GOP nod would have damaged the eventual nominee even further. But Hasner, who spent most of the last year rather unsuccessfully running for Senate, was almost certainly promised a clear primary field when he dropped down to Rep. Allen West's former seat—among other things, he received endorsements from ex-Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio, messages designed to tell LaMarca "stay out." Still, whoever wins the Democratic nomination, Broward County Commissioner Kristin Jacobs or former West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel, will be the favorite in November.
• FL-26: It looks like state Rep. Luis Garcia's campaign against GOP freshman David Rivera has all but fallen apart. Garcia's now publicly blaming DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz for his poor fundraising, which is a truly remarkable sign of un-seriousness. Even if you do face obstacles from establishment players, no legitimate candidate should ever air those grievances out in the open—it makes you look like a whiner, and you certainly aren't going to get the target of your complaints to change their tune as a result.
Now, could I believe that DWS has made life difficult for Garcia? Longtime readers are well aware of how she undermined three South Florida Democratic candidates in 2008—Joe Garcia, Raul Martinez, and Annette Taddeo—when she was chair of the DCCC's Red to Blue program, something we chronicled here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here. (If you don't want to click all those links, just go here.) But it's important to remember that Garcia, Martinez, and Taddeo (now Taddeo-Goldstein) never once kvetched in public. They just put their heads down and raised as much money as they possible could, which in each case, turned out to be well into the seven figures. Garcia's $60K haul last quarter just won't cut it under any circumstances.
But the story is actually quite a bit worse:
The final insult came this week when Garcia fielded a call from former Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas, who is mulling a run for the seat.
"Alex said that he had been called by Debbie Wasserman Schultz and that Steve Israel had come down to meet with him, all behind my back," Garcia said. "I placed a call to Steve Israel. He hasn’t returned my call. I’m not very happy about that."
In a written statement, the congresswoman's spokesman Jonathan Beeton said: "The DCCC asked the Congresswoman to make a call to another candidate in South Florida. She does many calls to candidates for the DCCC and this was one of those calls."
Garcia acknowledges the high-level help for Penelas "doesn’t bode well. But it doesn’t say a lot of good things about the national party. At the very least, I was handled disrespectfully – maybe a little bit dishonestly."
So Garcia's also accusing DWS and Steve Israel of being "dishonest" and going "behind his back." Like I said, his candidacy is all but over. Unfortunately, our remaining options are slim. Penelas, for
reasons I explained a day ago, doesn't look so hot. And Annette Taddeo-Goldstein, who had considered the race last year, informs me that she won't run. So what's Plan D?
• IL-10: Count me among those who thinks this mailer from Democratic businessman Brad Schneider is sketchball:
No, Barack Obama hasn't endorsed Schneider (or anyone else in this race), but sandwiching Obama's picture between tags touting endorsements from two newspapers and ex-Rep. Melissa Bean surely is an attempt to imply that he has. With an amusing bit of chutzpah, Schneider's campaign is trying to suggest that it's an expression of support by
Schneider for
Obama. I'm sure the POTUS will be delighted to feature Schneider's face on his own re-election literature this fall.
• IL-16: It's kinda unusual to see leadership getting involved in a member-on-member primary so explicitly, so it seems like either they think Adam Kinzinger is enough of an up-and-coming talent that he needs protecting, or else Don Manzullo did something to tick somebody off. At any rate, Eric Cantor (jointly with downstate Rep. John Shimkus) just offered his endorsement to Kinzinger in this district's GOP primary. (David Jarman)
• MI-14: I haven't been able to find out for sure one way or another, but have any unions endorsed Rep. Hansen Clarke? I ask because another two big ones just gave their support to Clarke's chief rival in the Democratic primary, Rep. Gary Peters: AFSCME Michigan Council 25 (which represents members statewide) and the Michigan Education Association.
• NJ-05: I wonder if Marine Corps. vet Jason Castle, the newest entrant into the race against GOP Rep. Scott Garrett, has some chops. He just scored the backing of the man who was the no. 1 Democratic recruitment target, former Giants hall-of-famer Harry Carson, as well as Assemblyman Gordon Johnson.
• NY-07: Turns out it is "Game on" after all: New York City councilman Erik Dilan says he will indeed challenge Rep. Nydia Velazquez in the Democratic primary, after giving non-committal hints he might for the better part of a year. In this heavily Democratic district, this isn't an ideological battle but rather part of a power struggle between Brooklyn Dem boss Vito Lopez and Velazquez, a major thorn in his side. As we explained yesterday, redistricting looks like it'll give Dilan a boost, though the draft map may yet change before it becomes final.
• OH-02: How bad does David Krikorian have to suck to lose to this guy?
William R. Smith is the invisible candidate.
No one has seen him; no one has heard him speak. Outside of his home county of Pike, there is probably no Democrat who could recognize him on sight. [...]
Smith, 61, did not respond to The Enquirer’s inquiries for information about his candidacy during the campaign. He did not have a campaign web site.
Wednesday morning, The Enquirer reached his home in Waverly by telephone and was told by his mother that he wouldn’t be back home until the end of the week and that she would pass on the message.
I propose a new category, below even "Some Dude": Witness Protection Program Candidate.
• NY-27: The biggest Democratic loser in New York's proposed new court-drawn House map is first-term Rep. Kathy Hochul, who of course won a special election just last year to replace the disgraced Chris Lee. Her seat would go from an already-tricky 46-52 Obama district to a 44-54 one, so it's no surprise that Republicans are all of a sudden expressing a whole lot of interest in running against her. City & State takes stock of the new field of possibles, which include state Sen. Patrick Gallivan, Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb, and former state AG Dennis Vacco. That's on top of two names we've previously heard about, former Erie County Executive Chris Collins and Iraq vet David Bellavia.
• OK-02: You probably caught wind of the fact that on Tuesday night, Barack Obama netted a truly miserable 57% of the vote in Oklahoma's Democratic primary. I guess it's not super-surprising, given that Oklahoma was John McCain's best state in 2008 (and Obama's third-worst), but still, this was a Dem primary, right? That's kind of awful for a sitting president. Even more awful (well, aside from the fact that Operation Rescue founder Randall Terry will now get delegates to the Democratic convention) is that Obama scored just 42% in the 2nd Congressional District, an open seat that Team Blue is defending this fall. That was actually Obama's worst CD in the state, and while it's an ancestrally Democratic region and we seem to have landed a decent recruit in the form of prosecutor Rob Wallace, this is hardly an auspicious sign for our chances.
• PA-13: This big bowl of "wtf?" just demonstrates yet again that Joe Sestak is the honey badger of Pennsylvania Democratic politics. What's he up to now? Why, he's fundraising for Nate Kleinman, who is running a write-in primary campaign against Dem Rep. Allyson Schwartz. Kleinman, who identifies himself as a member of the Occupy Wall Street movement, is also a former Sestak staffer, but this is nevertheless pretty ridiculous. Along with his run against Sen. Arlen Specter last cycle and his refusal this year to ever make it clear whether he'd run for his old House seat, this move shows that Sestak just don't care.
• TX-25: Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams is joining the crowded GOP field in the redrawn 25th CD, which went from being a seat Democrat Lloyd Doggett could comfortably win to one so red that Doggett had little choice but to seek an escape hatch in the new 35th. The other well-known Texas Republican by the name of Williams, former Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams (no relation), is also in the race, as is businessman Dave Garrison and one-time GOP consultant Chad Wilbanks, among other people. Note that SoS is an appointed position in the Lone Star State—though he briefly made a Senate bid last year before dropping down after Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst got in, Williams has never run for office before.
• TX-33: There are two hunormous state filing deadlines on Friday—in fact, it's for the two biggest of them all: California and Texas. (Er, and Idaho's also on tap.) So I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a last-minute flurry of activity, since we're talking about 89 congressional districts combined (okay, 91 including the Gem State). Anyhow, here's one for you: Former state Rep. Domingo Garcia is joining the Democratic primary in the new 33rd District, which already features a big cast of characters, including state Rep. Marc Veasey, Fort Worth council member Kathleen Hicks, former Dallas council member Steve Salazar, and activist Carlos Quintanilla. The winner of the Dem nomination here will almost certainly go on to victory in November in this 69% Obama seat.
• WA-06: Retiring Rep. Norm Dicks says he won't endorse anyone to succeed him in the Democratic primary, but it may not matter. So far, the only announced candidate is state Sen. Derek Kilmer; others are still looking at the race, but Kilmer already seems to have the "frontrunner" aura no matter who else gets in.
Redistricting Roundup:
• NY Redistricting: We're just putting this one up for the LOLs, as it isn't exactly newsworthy (or even credible)... Republican state Senate Dean Skelos is such a big fan of the new court-drawn map in the Empire State that he says the GOP could pick up four House seats as a result. (If you're wondering, the targets he has in mind are Bill Owens, Kathy Hochul, Tim Bishop, and, believe it or not, Louise Slaughter, whose Rochester-area district did move significantly to the right but is still 59% Obama). But the fact that Skelos is expressing happiness publicly with the map, while Democrats most certainly aren't, does say something. (David Jarman & David Nir)
