Anyone who thought that the Fluke/Limbaugh thing (or the sudden GOP preoccupation with the "evils" of contraception) haven't had a direct impact on Election 2012 got a real wake up call this weekend, and they got it from one of the most amenable pollsters for the GOP in this cycle thus far.
It was Gallup, of all people, who noted not only a large swing in the direction away from Mitt Romney in the past several weeks, but also noted that much of that swing came from shifting allegiances among women. If only men voted in the 2012 presidential election in the dozen anointed "swing states", Mitt Romney might squeak out a win (he leads by one point). President Obama, thanks to an 18-point edge among women, actually has his biggest lead of the cycle so far in those swing states (51-42).
A thought or two about that poll, and others, awaits you in this, the only Polling Wrap of this week (owing to the fact that this is the first Spring Break in five years where my children and I have been on the same schedule, we are taking advantage. I'll be back to recap the week in polling during Saturday's Weekend Digest).
But, first, the numbers:
GOP (PRESIDENTIAL) PRIMARY POLLS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 43, Santorum 25, Gingrich 11, Paul 10
MARYLAND (PPP): Romney 52, Santorum 27, Gingrich 10, Paul 9
WISCONSIN (PPP): Romney 43, Santorum 36, Paul 11, Gingrich 8
WISCONSIN (We Ask America): Romney 39, Santorum 31, Paul 16, Gingrich 15
(PRESIDENTIAL) GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup): Obama d. Romney (49-45); Obama d. Santorum (51-43)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (45-45); Obama d. Paul (43-40); Obama d. Santorum (47-42); Obama d. Gingrich (48-38)
"SWING STATES"+ (Gallup): Obama d. Romney (51-42); Obama d. Santorum (52-41)
MASSACHUSETTS (Univ of New Hampshire): Obama d. Romney (49-33)
(+): Swing States defined by Gallup as the following twelve states--Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
MA-SEN (Univ of New Hampshire): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 37, Elizabeth Warren (D) 35
WA-GOV (Grove Insight for SEIU): Jay Inslee (D) d. Rob McKenna (R) (38-34)
WI-GOV (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner--D): Tom Barrett (D) d. Gov. Scott Walker (R) (48-47); Walker d. Kathleen Falk (R) (48-47)
WI-GOV (Rasmussen): Recall Gov. Scott Walker (R) 52, Don't Recall 47
A few thoughts, just past the jump...
- Proof that I am not going to go easy on the House of Ras just because they post a poll number I might like: they fundamentally miss the fairway on their poll in Wisconsin. It is almost as if the Ras-sies just assumed the Wisconsin gubernatorial recalls were just like the recall elections in California back in 2003. It is not, as they put it in their polling, a binary question of whether or not to recall Scott Walker. It is, instead, a heads-up contest between Scott Walker and whomever emerges from the Democratic gubernatorial primary in May. With that in mind, a heads-up ballot test between Walker and Democrat Tom Barrett, or Walker and Democrat Kathleen Falk, might've been more useful. Which is precisely what GQR did in their poll, which yielded a considerably closer result.
- In another, more standard, gubernatorial showdown, there might be an interesting shift in Washington. For months, it looked like Republican state attorney general Rob McKenna had a modest, but real, lead over Democrat Jay Inslee. Then an SEIU poll, as well as a contemporaneous public poll, had the race deadlocked last month. Now, Grove Insight is back for another round, and staked Inslee to a four-point edge. The absence of contrary data from team McKenna tells me that their 6-10 point leads are a thing of the past.
- Here is a telling stat: in roughly six weeks, women voters under the age of 50 have made the sharpest shift of any segment of the electorate. They went from an Obama lead within the margin of error to a chasm of a gap: more than 30 points! In that time, Romney has gone from 44 percent support with that segment of the electorate down to just 30 percent. If that holds through November, Romney would need some huge gaps elsewhere to make up the difference.
