I can think of a few reasons why Maryland is one of our favorite states to redistrict:
- It’s very Democratic, so there are lots of different ways to make a redistricting plan that is good for the Democrats.
- It’s an odd-shaped state, so it's more fun to cut up into odd-shaped districts.
- It’s a good VRA case study, because it has 2 separate centers of black population that each have to anchor a VRA district.
-Some of our best redistricters live in Maryland.
Maryland already did their redistricting, and already had their primaries, so this is purely hypothetical.
Here is what the Maryland state legislature passed into law:
Note: For all maps in this diary, click on the picture to be linked to a larger map.
It’s a 7-1 Democratic gerrymander, and it’s a huge mess. Maryland currently has 6 Democrats and 2 Republicans. One of the Republicans, Andy Harris, gets shored up with a Republican vote sink consisting of the Eastern Shore and some very Republican Baltimore suburbs. The other Republican, Roscoe Bartlett, gets screwed over by having his district cut up and the pieces given to Democrats. All of the other districts have ridiculous shapes, and have isthmuses, and wrap around each other like crazy. Extreme gerrymandering makes people like the government less and it makes it harder for members of Congress to campaign in and properly represent their wacky districts. So you have to wonder, was this really necessary?
If the objective is 7 Democrats and an Andy Harris vote sink, then here is how they should have done it instead:
1st District: Eastern Shore and Northern Baltimore exurbs
County |
Population |
%white |
%black |
%Obama |
%McCain |
Eastern Shore |
449226 |
78.6 |
15.5 |
42.6 |
55.8 |
Harford |
160743 |
90.3 |
4.4 |
33.3 |
64.2 |
Baltimore Co |
112272 |
88.0 |
3.8 |
37.1 |
60.4 |
Total |
722241 |
82.6 |
11.3 |
38.8 |
59.1 |
Andy Harris is Maryland’s Michelle Bachman, and instead of trying to get rid of him, they shored him up. The rural, culturally southern Eastern Shore, and the rich Baltimore suburbs don’t have much in common, except both vote for the same party. Andy Harris should continue to win this R+14 district with margins in the high single digits.
2nd District: Baltimore and North/East
County |
Population |
%white |
%black |
%Obama |
%McCain |
Harford |
84083 |
65.4 |
25.0 |
54.8 |
43.2 |
Baltimore Co |
453844 |
73.7 |
16.1 |
51.4 |
46.2 |
Baltimore Ci |
183254 |
46.9 |
43.6 |
78.9 |
19.6 |
Total |
721181 |
65.9 |
24.2 |
58.7 |
39.2 |
From Havre de Grace to Dundalk to Reisterstown. This map, just like the real map, has 2 white-majority Democratic Baltimore-based districts. Unlike the real map, the 2 districts don’t twist around each other and look awful. Both incumbents (Sarbanes and Ruppersburger) live in this 2nd district. Hopefully one of them will move to the 4th district (and cut their commute in half). Stupidest case scenario: the 2 Democratic incumbents primary each other over this district, while leaving the 4th vacant for another Democrat. Anyway, this is a safe Democratic district. It won’t go Republican, even in a wave election.
3rd District: Baltimore and West
County |
Population |
%white |
%black |
%Obama |
%McCain |
Baltimore Ci |
289324 |
8.7 |
87.2 |
95.7 |
3.6 |
Baltimore Co |
160675 |
23.4 |
66.1 |
84.6 |
14.4 |
Howard |
26512 |
81.8 |
5.0 |
41.9 |
56.2 |
Carroll |
167134 |
92.3 |
3.1 |
33.9 |
63.6 |
Frederick |
77734 |
92.4 |
2.4 |
40.0 |
58.1 |
Total |
721379 |
42.5 |
51.4 |
70.6 |
28.1 |
This may be hard to believe by looking at the map, but this is a Baltimore-dominated black-majority district. This district takes as many black people as it needs in Baltimore City and County, and then absorbs as much white rural Republican territory as it can. The real version of this district takes up some Republican-leaning suburbs in Baltimore and Howard Counties, but they could have done better. There is more-Republican territory in Carroll and Frederick Counties, and taking in that territory even makes the district shape look better. Hopefully the black liberal Baltimore Congressman will be a good Congressman and be accessible to in people in the western counties. If he can become popular in the western counties then he/she would be a good candidate for statewide office.
4th District: Baltimore and South
County |
Population |
%white |
%black |
%Obama |
%McCain |
Baltimore Ci |
148343 |
54.7 |
30.4 |
72.3 |
25.7 |
Baltimore Co |
78238 |
73.9 |
13.8 |
50.2 |
47.1 |
Howard |
260573 |
60.1 |
17.6 |
61.6 |
36.5 |
Anne Arundel |
234521 |
65.6 |
21.3 |
51.4 |
46.6 |
Total |
721715 |
62.2 |
21.1 |
59.0 |
38.9 |
It’s politically, culturally, and demographically just like the 2nd district, only on the other side of the city. Compactness is good government.
5th District: Southern Maryland
County |
Population |
%white |
%black |
%Obama |
%McCain |
Anne Arundel |
132040 |
78.1 |
11.6 |
50.7 |
47.7 |
Prince Georges |
250101 |
21.0 |
67.1 |
85.3 |
13.9 |
Charles |
146551 |
52.2 |
38.2 |
63.9 |
35.1 |
Calvert |
88737 |
81.1 |
13.5 |
46.2 |
52.3 |
Saint Mary |
105151 |
78.5 |
13.8 |
43.4 |
55.1 |
Total |
722580 |
53.5 |
36.7 |
64.6 |
34.3 |
Southern Maryland and the southern/eastern extent of the Washington DC suburbs, and Annapolis. After Steny Hoyer retires, it will probably elect a black Democrat.
6th District: Prince George's/Anne Arundel
County |
Population |
%white |
%black |
%Obama |
%McCain |
Anne Arundel |
171095 |
84.8 |
7.6 |
42.9 |
55.2 |
Prince Georges |
548520 |
13.1 |
66.4 |
91.0 |
8.3 |
Total |
719615 |
30.2 |
52.5 |
77.4 |
21.5 |
Everything around Washington DC is heavily Democratic. The only nearby Republican territory that could be sunk into a PG-based black VRA district is in Anne Arundel County, so that’s what got added. I think this version looks better than the earmuffs that the real map gave us.
7th District: Montgomery County
County |
Population |
%white |
%black |
%Obama |
%McCain |
Prince Georges |
64799 |
36.1 |
18.3 |
72.7 |
25.2 |
Montgomery |
658395 |
54.2 |
16.5 |
72.1 |
26.5 |
Total |
723194 |
52.4 |
16.7 |
72.4 |
26.2 |
This district is white-majority, and it’s even more Democratic than one of the black-majority districts. It may be a waste of Democratic votes, but the entire region is so heavily Democratic, so what can you do?
8th District: Rockville to the Western Border
County |
Population |
%white |
%black |
%Obama |
%McCain |
Montgomery |
313382 |
46.4 |
15.2 |
68.5 |
29.9 |
Frederick |
155651 |
74.6 |
10.7 |
53.2 |
45.0 |
Washington |
147430 |
85.3 |
9.2 |
42.7 |
55.4 |
Allegany |
75087 |
87.8 |
9.0 |
36.9 |
61.0 |
Garrett |
30097 |
97.9 |
0.8 |
31.7 |
66.5 |
Total |
721647 |
67.3 |
11.7 |
55.4 |
42.8 |
The counties are listed from east to west. As you can see, as you get further from Washington DC, the counties get whiter and more Republican. This district, just like its real version, is designed to force Republican incumbent Roscoe Bartlett into retirement. Unlike its real version, it looks natural. With a thicker section of Frederick County and a smoother section of Montgomery County, it looks like what you get by naturally drawing a district that follows the Potomac River. Someone living in the western panhandle, paying attention to politics for the first time, will see the map and think it’s just an unfortunate accident that they are getting outvoted by Montgomery County. The lines on the real map make that deliberate screwing look more obvious.