While there's been a lot of gnashing of teeth over the Wisconsin recall, I thought I'd add a comparison of last night's exit polls with the exit polls from 2010.
So what do they tell us?
Well, basically, the two sets of exit polls tell us that if you liked Scott Walker in 2010, you like him in 2012. If you didn't like Scott Walker in 2010... you still don't like them.
Deeper numbers after the jump.
Here is, perhaps, the most telling set of numbers: Voters who voted for Scott Walker in 2010, voted for Walker again by a 94-6 margin. Voters who preferred Tom Barrett in 2010... voted for him by the same margin. (Those who didn't vote, 13 percent of the electorate, went 53-45 for Barrett.)
The electorate that Walker and Barrett faced wasn't terribly different from that in 2010. In 2010, Democrats were 37% of the electorate; Republicans, 36%; and independents, 31%. Last night, it was 34/35/31. Both men received roughly the same levels of support from each of the three groups as they did in 2010.
The same goes for the liberal/moderate/conservative breakdown: in 2010, it was 21/42/37; last night, it was 21/44/36. And once again, there was little change in the levels of support for each man: there was a slight uptick in Walker's support among liberals (from 10% to 13%, presumably explained by liberals opposed to recalls on principle) and moderates (from 43% to 46%), but that was counterbalanced by a downtick in support from conservatives (from 89% to 86%.)
And there's also this: of the people who voted in last night's election, 52 percent approved of "recent changes in state law limiting ability of government workers to collectively bargain over pay and benefits." These voters went for Walker by an 90-10 margin. Voters opposed to it went 89-10 for Barrett.
Finally, of all the people who voted in the recall, 51 percent said they planned to vote for President Obama in November. 18 percent of them voted for Walker. Sound bad? Well, it's not that far off the numbers from 2010, either: 48 percent of them voted for Obama in 2008, and 16 percent of that group voted for Walker.
The right, of course, is giddy about all of this. There's this gem from National Review:
How do you think the leadership of the Wisconsin chapter of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees fell to 28,745 in February from 62,818 in March 2011? How do you think they greeted the sudden realization that two-thirds of the members, given the option of leaving and cease paying union dues, headed for the exits?
(Of course, it being National Review, they neglect to point out that in addition to giving them the "option" to leave and quit paying union dues, they took away the sole reason that people join unions in the first place.)
But again, the polls show that there was no mass defection away from Walker and the Republicans. Nor was there any mass defection from Barrett. For all the work put in by Democrats, the recall election was the 2010 election done over again.
So what can we learn from all of this?
Well, the most obvious thing is that when the electorate looks like the 2010 electorate, Republicans win. Unfortunately, so far the 2008 election has been a high-water mark for Democrats. In 2008 we managed to capture the general anger with the Republican Party in general and Bush in particular into sweeping victories. Since then, though, we've been unable to replicate that. While some of it certainly has to do with true independent voters not supporting Democrats closer to home in subsequent elections, there is also a sense that the massive number of new voters we turned out in 2008 are staying home.
And we need to do a better job of selling our policies to the people. It's disappointing to find out that a majority -- even if it's a slim majority -- of the public disagrees with us. But the right has done a fantastic job of turning public employee unions into their latest scapegoat for what is wrong with the country.
And we haven't fought back. Yes, we managed to get a recall election on the ballot -- but we haven't done enough to convince a majority that it's in their interest for government workers to be able to retire comfortably, or to have the collective bargaining rights that allow them to get those benefits.
This is one of those things that we must do, to keep Obama in office and win back Congress. It's about more than just turning out our voters. It is about winning their votes.