The media cover the horse race. The national pollsters model who they believe will vote then attempt to express that in poll numbers. We here in the engaged, on-line community discuss events, tactics, values, advertisements.
We watch our President do what he is so good at doing: engaging with voters at a visceral level; drawing them into a larger world of ideas. We watch Romney flail about in front of cameras and voters like some guy afraid of going out in daylight or passing a mirror..
The professionals who run the campaigns live in a different reality: they are like poker players who know the odds any particular card will turn up next. They 'read' the faces of their opponents for signs of strength or weakness, but the cards [the numbers] are more important. These people are paid to know the numbers.
Here is what I believe: President Obama is close to putting Virginia and Colorado in his pocket. He'll still campaign in those places but his appearances already have taken on larger, national issues. Campaigning in Virginia gives him the opportunity to speak to his positives of national security and success at reviving the economy.
More importantly, both campaigns know the importance of 1 state--Florida--and why it holds the key to a close race versus a total blow-out by the President.
Ask Nate Silver [who now gives Obama a 67% chance of winning the electoral college] what Romney's chances are if you assume that he loses Florida: 2%. That is the number both campaigns are dealing with. They know there will be a lot of campaigning in Ohio, New Hampshire, etc. But Florida is an existential threat to Romney and the numbers there have to be keeping his people awake at night.
First, Obama has a better approval rating in Florida than Romney. By a lot. The $15 million orgy of negativity mitt spewed in the Sunshine State during the primary still drags him down. Second, the President knows exactly where his voters are. He has been in the State for many months, setting up a huge ground organization, and his people are busy lining up his voters. Romney is now spending a lot of money trying to set up a ground game there, but he'll never catch up. He relies on vast spending on negative ads, whose efficacy is questionable when you are much less likable and trustworthy than your opponent.
Third, and perhaps most important: Rick Scott. Scott is SO unpopular in Florida that I believe many voters will choose Obama just to send a message to their governor! [A similar dynamic is at play in Ohio and Maine] Now Obama may not gain more than 1-3% of the Florida electorate as a result of this dynamic, but in a close race that could be more than enough.
So if you're Romney and you can't win CO or VA, you cannot telegraph that in July, or even September. The horserace would not look so close and you might not be outraising Obama every month. In addition, you have a consistent Ohio problem: President Obama has maintained a lead there, and in PA the President's lead is steady. Romney keeps campaigning in NH with its 4 evs, because without Ohio and PA, you have to win Iowa, NH, NC and Florida to have any path to victory.
But Florida is close. Very close. Neither campaign can put it in their column right now. The difference is, Obama can still win without Florida, Romney cannot.