The media has to have a "close race" because otherwise they wouldn't have the storyline they need to keep readers interested.
So, when the Democratic convention appeared to be having a major effect in the polls after a day or two, the media needed to do something about it.
So, we get things like this from the Washington Post:
Headline: "Analysis: Weak jobs report could cancel Obama convention bounce, snarl swing-state strategy"
Or, more bluntly, from the New York Post, we get this:
Headline: "Flat job stats kill Obama’s bounce after convention"
There's only one problem. It ain't so.
It's Sunday morning, and now we have Obama's job approval numbers from Rasmussen, based on interviews done Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Remember that the job numbers came out first thing Friday morning, were reported all day Friday on TV and online, and were in the Saturday papers. How's he doing?
Date Approval Disapproval
Sun. 9/9 52 47
Sat. 9/8 49 50
Fri. 9/7 47 52
Thurs 9/6 46 54
This is an apples to apples comparison, and he went up each day, including today, indicating that the Obama bounce was not affected by Friday's job numbers.
Nate Silver already was showing a strong bounce for Obama with the numbers that came in on Saturday, and with the four point lead in today's Rasmussen head to head, that shows an average bounce of about 4 points across all four daily trackers. Nate's analysis shows that with just numbers done after Wednesday night, the bounce appears to be closer to 8 points.
This morning's big jump, combined with yesterday's numbers, shows that, rather than the job numbers killing Obama's bounce, it appears to be the other way 'round. The bounce trounces the job numbers.
