President Obama's post-DNC electoral "bounce" showed no real signs of abatement on Monday, as the four trackers either held steady or saw Obama's lead grow ever so slightly. Depending on which screen you employed, Barack Obama either got a large bounce or a small one in the latest CNN/ORC poll. On balance, averaging all the relevant polls together, Obama's bounce was roughly similar to what it was yesterday.
But, the bigger news for the Democrats: today made clear the fact that Barack Obama was not the sole beneficiary of a Democratic Convention bounce. For the first time in forever, even the House of Ras had to concede that the generic congressional ballot favored the Democrats. Meanwhile, several individual race polls looked quite good for the blue team.
On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama d. Romney (52-46 LV; 53-45 RV)
NATIONAL (CVOTER International for UPI): Obama d. Romney (49-46)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (49-44)
NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP for Christian Science Monitor): Obama d. Romney (46-44)
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama d. Romney (48-43 LV; 45-41 RV)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (50-45)
ILLINOIS (We Ask America--R): Obama d. Romney (54-37)
MASSACHUSETTS (Kimball Consulting--R): Obama d. Romney (56-40)
NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA for the Civitas Institute): Romney d. Obama (53-43)
OHIO (Gravis Marketing--R): Obama d. Romney (47-43)
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (54-38)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
(2014) FL-GOV--D (St. Petersburg Polls and Surveys--R): Charlie Crist 61, Alex Sink 25, Buddy Dyer 7, Nan Rich 4, Rod Smith 3
MA-SEN (Kimball Consulting--R): Sen. Scott Brown (R) 46, Elizabeth Warren (D) 45
MN-06 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the Graves campaign): Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R) 48, Jim Graves (D) 46
NM-01 (Research and Polling for the Albuquerque Journal): Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D) 46, Janice Arnold-Jones (R) 34
NM-02 (Research and Polling for the Albuquerque Journal): Rep. Steve Pearce (R) 56, Evelyn Madrid Ehrhard (D) 30
NM-03 (Research and Polling for the Albuquerque Journal): Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) 57, Jefferson Byrd (R) 31
NY-21 (Siena University): Rep. Bill Owens (D) 49, Matt Doheny (R) 36, Donald Hassig (G) 6
OH-SEN (Gravis Marketing--R): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 47, Josh Mandel (R) 42
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump...
Before we get to the downballot numbers, let's get to the issue of the "bounce." The net bounce total today is actually slightly smaller than it was yesterday, but that is solely attributed to a single quirk in the numbers. That quirk emanates from the "registered voters" screen of the CNN/ORC poll, which only edged up a single point from last week. However, the important thing to remember is that Obama already had a huge edge in that RV screen (the Obama lead went from 7 points last week to 8 points). Among LVs, the bounce was a much more robust 6 points in the president's direction (from all square to Obama +6).
So, in total, here is the bounce breakdown:
Gallup: From Obama +1 to Obama +5 (Obama +4)
Rasmussen: Romney +3 to Obama +5 (Obama +8)
Ipsos/Reuters LV: Romney +2 to Obama +5 (Obama +7)
Ipsos/Reuters RV: Tied to Obama +4 (Obama +4)
CNN/ORC LV: Tied to Obama +6 (Obama +6)
CNN/ORC RV: Obama +7 to Obama +8 (Obama +1)
NET BOUNCE (6 surveys): Obama +5.0 percent
Even in numbers that essentially held steady, there was great news for Barack Obama. In the Gallup daily tracker, as well as the Rasmussen tracking poll, the president's job approval held steady at or above 50 percent. Aside from the obvious fact that it is always a good thing if an incumbent president can keep his job approval north of 50 percent, it is also notable because there was
no drop in those numbers in Monday's tracking release.
Let me very clear on why that matters: both Gallup and the House of Ras employ three-day tracking for their job approval. That means that the day that dropped off the tracking poll for today's release was...Thursday. Thursday night was a huge night for Obama, having come right after Bill Clinton's triumphant convention address, and in the midst of the final night of the convention. For neither tracking poll to slip in today's releases, that means that Sunday night's surveys had to be at least reasonably close to Thursday night's surveys. Since Thursday was an exceptional night for Obama, Sunday must've been pretty decent in its own right.
The state polls, admittedly, are a bit more equivocal. But remember that PPP has been transitioning from registered voter polls to likely voter polls, so that explains, in part, the lack of huge changes.
Where there seems to be a big convention bounce, however, is downballot. Elizabeth Warren, featured prominently in prime time at the Democratic Convention, got a five-point bump in a Republican poll. Meanwhile, a series of House polls, both public and internal, provide excellent news for the Democrats. A campaign internal poll shows GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann in potentially deep trouble, as she lead Democrat Jim Graves by only two points. Meanwhile, two public polls give Democrats double-digit lead in races (NY-21 and NM-01) that were considered to be semi-legitimate pickup opportunities for the GOP.
In other polling news...
- If it weren't for that absolutely jackshit Illinois poll a few weeks back that said that Obama and Romney were deadlocked...in Cook County, the new North Carolina poll SurveyUSA conducted for the right-wing Civitas Institute might have qualified as the most whacked poll of the cycle. How does Mitt Romney get a double digit lead in the Tar Heel State. Well, if you assume that Mitt Romney could snag one-third of the African-American vote, then that's his path to a 10-point win. Of course, there is the small matter of precedent: John McCain took slightly less of the African-American vote in 2008. As in, 5 percent of the African-American vote. Longtime fans of the Wrap know that SUSA has an odd habit of having completely absurd subgroup numbers (remember how the GOP suddenly began to dominate with young voters?), but getting reasonably close to the fairway as election day loomed. Right now, though, they aren't even in the rough. They're deep in the trees.
- The much-panned St. Pete Polls unit is back with another headline-grabbing, but logic-defying, survey. Seriously, these dudes are straining my general rule that all polls get in, and then the readers can sort out their credibility.
In this case, the "pollster" has former Governor (and former Republican) Charlie Crist lapping the field in a prospective 2014 Democratic gubernatorial primary in Florida. While you can quibble with the idea of Crist in the lead (especially since he has not officially declared as a Democrat), and you certainly can quibble with the margin (the near-winner in 2010 is down almost 40?! Really?!), there is another issue afoot. As you can read at the link, there is also the issue of a few of the Democratic contenders polling at net negative favorabilities, within their own party. That is highly, highly unusual at the downballot level.
