How dire Romney's Electoral College math really is

Most political junkies know by now that Romney has no realistic path to 270 that doesn't go through Ohio.  But it's actually worse than that.  By my math, Romney needs to win all five remaining swing states in order to unseat Obama.

How's that?  Well, here's how I see the Electoral College math.

Safe Obama:  California (55), Oregon (7), Washington (12), Hawaii (4), New Mexico (11), Minnesota (10), Illinois (20), New York (29), New Jersey (14), Maryland (10), Delaware (3), DC (3), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), Vermont (3)
Likely Obama: Nevada (6), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20)
Likely Romney:  Arizona (11), Indiana (11), Montana (3), Georgia (16), Missouri (10), Nebraska CD-2 (1)
Safe Romney:  Alaska (3), Utah (6), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska-AL (2), Nebraska-CD1 (1), Nebraska CD3 (1), Kansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Texas (38), Louisiana (8), Arkansas (10), Kentucky (8), Tennessee (11), Mississippi (6), Alabama (9), South Carolina (9), West Virginia (5)
Tossups:  Colorado (8), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Florida (29)

As you can see, by my reckoning Obama leads 262-191.  Which means that if Obama takes just ONE of the tossups, it's over.  By comparison, Romney needs to take every last tossup in order to get to 270.  And we all know that there is no way that will happen, short of an unprecedented collapse by Obama.