I'm watching Sam Wang right now on CNN International. The intro showed Intrade giving Obama 64% odds, 538 at 85%, and Princeton Election Consortium (Sam) at 98%.
98%!?!, began CNN's host, Ralitsa Vassileva. How can you be so certain?
Then Sam got to work. Very articulate, nicely rumpled hair (in keeping with a Princeton neuroscientist). Warm baritone (sorry, Rightwing haters). Explaining his straightforward methodology -- it's the polls that are delivering this high level of confidence.
What if the polls you have been studying are skewed?
"I think there is the possibility of systematic bias. National polls are more prone to that bias. . . . But state polls, on average . . . do quite well and have a very good track record and tend not to have that skew."
Then, a nice close from the host, Professor Wang, who has promised to eat a bug if he is wrong -- and we'll keep him to that!
I'm in London this week, and this was CNN International. Makes me wonder if the domestic product will have anything of the sort.