A few nights ago, Rachel Maddow reported that Republicans were working to rig the next presidential election by targeting several states and changing how they assign electoral votes.
She was also frustrated because no one was reporting on this.
That has changed, at least a little. In the last few days there have been several diaries, on the subject. Other - left-leaning, but it's a start - are reporting on this. Including, as I edit this, our front page. Hooray!
The Maddow Blog has created an Election Process Toolkit
How does it work? Let's go through an example. Imagine you have 1000 voters and 10 districts with 100 voters each. Now say that votes split 60-40 for Ds versus Rs.
You’d expect the Ds to win most of the districts, if everyone was scattered evenly throughout the state, as they took 60% in each district.
Congr. Even Distribution
District Dem Rep
CD 1 60 40
CD 2 60 40
CD 3 60 40
CD 4 60 40
CD 5 60 40
CD 6 60 40
CD 7 60 40
CD 8 60 40
CD 9 60 40
CD 10 60 40
Total 600 400
Or, alternatively, if Ds all lived together and Rs all lived together, you’d have 6Ds going to Congress and 4Rs.
Congr. Clustered Distribution
District Dem Rep
CD 1 100 0
CD 2 100 0
CD 3 100 0
CD 4 100 0
CD 5 100 0
CD 6 100 0
CD 7 0 100
CD 8 0 100
CD 9 0 100
CD 10 0 100
Total 600 400
Gerrymandering in favor of Rs, however, clumps enough of the Ds together to make sure the other districts go R. After all, you only need 51% of the vote to win a district. In my example, I could easily make 7 districts R and 3 D – despite overwhelming support for Ds.
Congr. Gerrymandered
District Dem Rep
CD 1 100 5
CD 2 100 5
CD 3 100 5
CD 4 45 55
CD 5 45 55
CD 6 45 55
CD 7 45 55
CD 8 40 55
CD 9 40 55
CD 10 40 55
Total 600 400
The totals remain the same, but the results are completely different.
This is not just theoretical. It’s happening. Examples from Maddow show
Pennsylvania:
83,000 more votes cast for Democrats than Republicans in the House.
But the gerrymandering sent 13 Rs and 5 Ds to Congress
Michigan
240,000 more votes cast for Democrats than Republicans in the House
But they sent 9Rs and 5 Ds to Congress
Ohio
More votes were cast for Rs than Ds in the Congressional elections, about 52% to 48%
But the representation is not similar: 12 Rs and 4Ds
If the Republicans get their way and allocated electoral votes by the gerrymandered districts in targeted states - we will find it difficult to win any election. In 2012, Romney would have won, despite Obama's getting 5 million more votes.
There's a proposal in Pennsylvania to implement this. It is no idle matter, but a real threat to democracy.
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Tired of politics? Need to escape? Try my Greek mythology based novels, either the story of Oedipus from the point of view of Jocasta, or a trilogy about Niobe, whose children were murdered by the gods - or were they?