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Of the 76 million births in the US between 1946 and 1964, by the end of 1955, half, 38 million Boomers had been born. The Economic Opportunity Institute citing data from 2006 tells us that at age 65, the bottom 50% of income earners will die at age 81.1, the top 50% will die at 86.5. This could be used to suggest that half the Boomers born in 1955 will be dead by 2036, that half the Boomers born in 1964 will be dead by 2045. Though not entirely accurate I think it illustrates my point.

 photo life-expectancy-social-security-earnings1.jpg

SO lets get a little more accurate:

 photo DKSSDlogo-1.png

Rice University professor Justin Denney suggests that mortality rates from 1900 to 1999 aren't going to seen in this century. Obesity, Cancer & suicide are seen at higher rates in Boomers. But yet the Social Security Trustees go ahead and predict nearly straight line improvements in life expectancy at age 65 thru 2100.

 photo SSAgovlifeexpectancyage65.png

Denney notes a "huge increase" of 30 years in U.S. life expectancy from 1900 to the 2000s. But he and fellow researchers see a mere three-year increase over the next 50 years, with improvements in longevity concentrated among the well-to-do, while poorer people will not share in the same benefits.
http://www.reuters.com/...
"We're simply projecting that improvements will occur at roughly the same... (rate) as in the past," Stephen Goss, chief actuary for the Social Security Administration, told Reuters.
What if the trustees are wrong? If mortality rates stopped improving, and remained constant over the next 75 years, that would cut the OASDI actuarial deficit by about 0.45 percent of payroll, about one sixth of the projected shortfall over the next 75 years,
Just when did the Boomers start to die?
By 2000 4 million Boomers had passed, about 5.3%. By 2045 the vast majority of Boomers will be dead, and as bernardpliers noted in his superb SSD blogathon dairy last week entitled: "Social Security Won't Be There" - The GOP's Desperate Big Lie the Boomers, statistically speaking will be dead by 2050.
 photo BP_survival.jpg

See? That's the Boomers, fourth line from the left and second line from the right, showing mortality of Social Security  recipients at year 2050. At 2050, the youngest Boomers will be 85 years old (2050-1965=85) and, according to the survival curves, half of even the youngest boomers will be dead. The oldest boomers will be 104 years old (2050-1946=104) and the number still living will be statistically insignificant. And I think the projected 5% survival at age 100 for the youngest Boomers is probably overly optimistic.

But the lesson is clear - By 2050, most of the Baby Boom will dead.  And people who are under 40 should be in great shape to get Social Security benefits.

If the Social Security Trustees mortality expectations are, lets say, 5 years too generous then its more realistic to think that most of the Boomers will be dead in 2045 not 2050. We do know that males from the bottom 50% of income earners are not seeing a longer life measured from age 65, and many experts think that figure will decline.

Heres the really good news, as Boomers retire, that will tighten the labor market, forcing wages up, as renewable energy grows, this should help improve the economy by offering cheaper and plentiful energy. Job creation and wage growth will improve SSTF revenues and make it more likely that Trust Fund depletion in 2033 is an unrealistic prediction.

In addition, you have been shown that the SST mortality projections for age 65 are somewhat to exceedingly unrealistic.As I wrote last week:

GDP:
When we look at 2 scenarios, Low Cost (2.8%), Intermediate cost 2.1% and compare GDP the low cost should not be thought of as unattainable. Much conventional wisdom say 3% to 3.5% is about the best we can do with Energy and Resource constraints. Once we reach 20% from Solar and 20% from Wind, renewables will dominate the market. And be cheaper. And help the Economy.

..........If GDP grows at 2.6% over 20 years, but inflation is a it less than predicted in the low cost scenario, we can still get to 2090. Or if inflation is worse than expected, but Wage growth and job creation are real good, we still can get to 2090.

Workforce growth:
This one is easy, the Intermediate scenario Assumes .4% to .5% workforce growth from 2021 to 2050. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics says .7% thru 2050. The Low Cost Scenario uses .7% too.  Currently workforce growth is about 1.0% to 1.1%. To assume workforce growth will drop by over 50% in 8 years and then stay relatively flat thru 2090 is a bit hard to believe.
6 Political Appointees are the SS Trustees: Executive Summary is a political document.

The Political appointees are the ones who issue the Executive Summary, they have little to do with the actual Actuaries and Economists who assemble the projections, charts and tables. The Executive Summary is a purely political document, and that's all the average person hears about. The Social Security Trust Fund will be depleted by 2030 and can only pay 76% of benefits

Path Out of the Woods
Creating jobs thru infrastructure spending and raising the minimum wage are vital, NOW ! Improving the economy in this manner will push the 2033 date back every year we have a good economy. An economy that is is creating jobs while losing much of its workforce to retirement is going to see more wage growth above inflation (more FICA).

We need to push the 2033 SSTF depletion date past 2045 or so, then benefits being paid out, will start to drop like a stone. By 2050 it very well may be that the SSTF (Social Security Trust Fund) will coast thru 2090 without a hitch.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (21+ / 0-)

    ...... Social Security blogathon March 25th thru March 29th. #HandsOffmySS FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

    by Roger Fox on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 03:29:46 PM PDT

  •  No... (8+ / 0-)

    ...because:

    1. I don't have 40 or more quarters (2.5 years shy);

    and:

    2. I receive a public employee pension, which pays me approximately 70% of my salary prior to early retirement in 2010 (at the age of 55). It's more than enough for us, and I have no interest in working as a consultant, earning extra money and paying into SS.

    So, you guys make good use of my 30 quarters, `k?

    Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

    by JeffW on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 03:41:47 PM PDT

    •  There is a LOT of 'seed cast on barren ground' (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JeffW, Roger Fox

      in the Social Security system, not just your 30 quarters.

      It used to be that a lot of women with qualifying work histories were better off taking half their spouse's benefits and 'abandoning' their own (as if they had never contributed any FICA at all) but more recently more women have been ahead collecting their own - at least until the old man kicks off (thus at least saving the system the spousal benefits for several years).

      But what happens if the contributions cap comes off? If (a) the lower-earning spouse is self-employed and paying 12.4%, and (b) the spousal 50% is clearly going to exceed the personal benefit, will the spouse find it irrational to work - and make FICA contributions - at all?

      Too late for the simple life, too early for android love slaves - Savio

      by Clem Yeobright on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 05:01:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't consider it "barren ground"... (3+ / 0-)

        ...since at the time I had no idea I would end up working for 27+ years for the City of Chicago, and I consider that money paid in as a leg up for those who are receiving SS.

        Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

        by JeffW on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 05:47:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It's not irrational to work, even if you (4+ / 0-)

        expect larger benefits as a spouse than based on your own work.  In order to collect Social Security disability benefits, you have to have worked and paid into SS for at least five of the ten years immediately before your disability began.  It's a good idea to maintain that "currently insured" status, just in case.  

        Renewable energy brings national global security.     

        by Calamity Jean on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 08:18:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  People born in '64 are Boomers now? (5+ / 0-)

    I get your point, but I thought " Boomers" were born in the late 50's and earlier? It seems we now only have "Boomers", and "Millennials" which doesn't seem right. Guess we Generation X'ers and Gen Y'ers have been absorbed!
    '
    Even if we include people born in '64 as in whatever group, I'm not so sure that they will be all but gone by age 85-86.I think we run into problems when we start picking particular predictions about life expectancy. The main problem is that it assumes no medical/policy advances that could extend life and we're off debating that instead of focusing on retirement security, including Social Security.

    Frankly, I am more worried about poor people and men of color who work yet die prematurely. Now those numbers tell a whole different picture.

    We have to push for expansion. We have to push for job creation and create "upward pressure" on wages. We need paid sick time and maternity leave. We need to lift the income cap in addition to small incremental increases in payroll taxes.

    There is much to be done, and if we do it correctly, then people will live and collect longer and it will be paid for properly.

    "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

    by sebastianguy99 on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 03:57:17 PM PDT

    •  '63, '64 is the cut off - it's a birth rate thing. (8+ / 0-)

      I'm just in there.  But culturally I don't consider myself a Boomer.  How can you really be a Boomer if Disco was the music of your high school years?

      Republicans: if they only had a heart.

      by leu2500 on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 04:08:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'll second that. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stude Dude, flowerfarmer, worldlotus

        Statistically you're included, but just stay in the way-back and keep quiet, okay?

        :)

        Too late for the simple life, too early for android love slaves - Savio

        by Clem Yeobright on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 05:03:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  1958 here, and disco was in my jr high school yrs (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stude Dude, Clem Yeobright, irate

        High School
        Fly Robin Fly came out in 1975.

        Summer in between JR & SR High
        Rock the Boat 1974
        Gloria Gaynor Never Can Say Goodbye 1974

        Jr High
        Barry White 1973
        Soul Makossa 1972, the 1st club disco DJ hit.

        IF you were in High School in '83-'84 thats when Freestyle lit it up.

        ...... Social Security blogathon March 25th thru March 29th. #HandsOffmySS FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

        by Roger Fox on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 05:18:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I always thought the definition was (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        irate

        kids born to the generation that came home from WWII.  My ex was born in '61, her father was in France toward the end of the War, and she was the last (an oops) child.  Boomer.  I was born in '62, and my father was born during the war, while his father fought it.  So I'm not a Boomer, and arguably, neither was my father.

        Another part of that Boomer definition is often attitudes, expectations...and my ex fit the stereotype, though I never did.

        I realize that all this stuff is all just over generalization, anyway.

        "We refuse to fight in a war started by men who refused to fight in a war." -freewayblogger

        by Bisbonian on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 09:25:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  My Dad was a WWII vet. (0+ / 0-)

          I was born in 54, my youngest brother in 1960, 64 seems a reasonable cut off date.

          "Remember, Republican economic policies quadrupled the debt before I took office and doubled it after I left. We simply can't afford to double-down on trickle-down." Bill Clinton

          by irate on Fri Apr 05, 2013 at 01:54:59 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  64, yup (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Clem Yeobright, JeffW

      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      We may not need to push the FICA % up. The need for this is something we can measure on a year to year basis moving forward. And I'm sure you already know I'm a hater on cap removal. Shifting the cap upwards, in steps, yeah maybe, I'd rather shift bend points for those more needy, combined with significant COLA cap moves.

      If, as the CBO said last year, the next 4 years will see 12 million jobs created, well thats a step in the right direction.

      ...... Social Security blogathon March 25th thru March 29th. #HandsOffmySS FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

      by Roger Fox on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 04:19:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What I want to see is a higher employment (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Bisbonian, Roger Fox, JeffW

        rate, and higher pay for the people at the low end of the pay scale so that more people can pay more taxes and give the SS trust fund more income.  

        Renewable energy brings national global security.     

        by Calamity Jean on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 08:24:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  thats a really big deal (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Calamity Jean, JeffW, Clem Yeobright

          IIRC, in 2011 the CBO scored the shortfall @ .6% of GDP, thats only 90 billion per year today. If we create 20 million jobs at 36k each thats 89.2 billion in more FICA.

          So some combination of job creation and wage growth can get us to 90 billion a year, and see SS good thru 2090.

          And returning to 6% of GDP spent on infrastructure can create 20 million jobs easy.

          ...... Social Security blogathon March 25th thru March 29th. #HandsOffmySS FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

          by Roger Fox on Fri Apr 05, 2013 at 08:07:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  people born in 64 have always been part of the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude, Bisbonian

      boomer definition.

      I always thought it a stretch, I was born in 58 and considered myself on the tail end of that generation.  And I have a younger sister born in 64 who really did grow up in a different world.

      I remember being surprised at the stretch to 64, but I discovered that a few decades ago!

      "Don't Bet Against Us" - President Barack Obama

      by MRA NY on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 04:20:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Always was..... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JeffW, Egalitare

        Since- I dunno 1968?

         photo BP_US_Birth_Rates.jpg

        ...... Social Security blogathon March 25th thru March 29th. #HandsOffmySS FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

        by Roger Fox on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 04:47:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  My brother born in '55 pumps me for info (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JeffW, MRA NY, GreyHawk

        about what it was like to be in a generation to make a difference.

        July '46 here: top of the pile!

        Too late for the simple life, too early for android love slaves - Savio

        by Clem Yeobright on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 05:05:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Boomer from Baby Boom (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        linkage, Bisbonian, worldlotus, Roger Fox

        It is not like our parents predicted the Summer of Love or anything. All that cultural baggage just got tacked on after the fact as we grew up.

        The Greatest Generation and early Silents (1926-1963) got home from the War or never had to go to it and started pumping out kids starting in 1946, peaked in 1957 and then mostly trailed off by 1964, which might or might not have had something to do with the Pill.

        Peak Boomers were in middle school/junior high during the Summer of Love/the Chicago Convention/the Assassinations/90% of the Beatles catalog, to the extent that we were part of the 'Defining Events of a Generation' it was because we were listening to our older siblings LPs. For our sins we are the Disco AND Glam Rock generation.

        But we the 1956-1958 Boomers are the fat part of the pig in the demographic python and until we are excreted (sometime around and before 2045) our mere presence defines our macroeconomic impact, not the music of our high school years.

        SocSec dot.Defender at gmail.com - founder DK Social Security Defenders Group

        by Bruce Webb on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 07:06:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  So they say (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude, melfunction, Bisbonian

      Whoever "they" is that gets to decide these things.

      I was born in 1962 and I've never considered myself to be a boomer.

      I don't remember JFK being shot. I was 18 months old.
      I was 2 when The Beatles appeared on Ed Sullivan.
      I was 5 during the "Summer of Love".
      I was 6 when Nixon was elected the first time.
      I was 7 during Woodstock.
      I was 8 when The Beatles broke up.
      I was 12 when Nixon resigned.

      Call me whatever you want, but I will never consider myself part of the Baby Boom Generation.

      If the pilot's good, see, I mean if he's reeeally sharp, he can barrel that baby in so low... oh you oughta see it sometime. It's a sight. A big plane like a '52... varrrooom! Its jet exhaust... frying chickens in the barnyard!

      by Major Kong on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 04:57:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  When's your earliest memory? 7th grade? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Clem Yeobright

        ...... Social Security blogathon March 25th thru March 29th. #HandsOffmySS FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

        by Roger Fox on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 05:22:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I can vaguely remember 1964 or 1965 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Roger Fox, Clem Yeobright, Bisbonian

          I can barely remember LBJ being President.

          My point being, that doesn't really make me part of that generation. I was much too young to participate in the defining moments.

          If the pilot's good, see, I mean if he's reeeally sharp, he can barrel that baby in so low... oh you oughta see it sometime. It's a sight. A big plane like a '52... varrrooom! Its jet exhaust... frying chickens in the barnyard!

          by Major Kong on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 05:36:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I was 11 months old, my 1st X-mass (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Clem Yeobright

            Many people dont remember anything before 5th-7th grade.

            You cant partake of those defining moments if you dont remember them. Tree falling in the forest and all.

            ...... Social Security blogathon March 25th thru March 29th. #HandsOffmySS FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

            by Roger Fox on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 05:53:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Buh wa? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              worldlotus, Roger Fox

              I have vivid (selective but vivid) memories of living in Key West which spanned years from 4-6 and have clear memories of all three of the schools I attended in 2nd grade (Indiana, Seattle and Hawaii).

              Maybe this was because all those places were clear contrasts with Marin County where I moved for 4th grade, I can see that people who grew up in the same town maybe couldn't distinguish between events that happened in 5th grade and events from years earlier in the exact same mileau, I mean some of that has to blur into 'just Smalltown', but I would be shocked if that was the case for people who moved around when they were very young. For example I can't imagine not remembering Hawaii, at least the second time (most of second grade, all of third). Some images and experiences just imprint themselves even on the youngest minds.

              SocSec dot.Defender at gmail.com - founder DK Social Security Defenders Group

              by Bruce Webb on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 07:21:16 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  '62 for me, too. Not a Boomer. (0+ / 0-)

            But I remember seeing the paper when Bobby Kennedy was shot.  We happened to be in San Francisco.  Right about the same time, my Dad got Alice's Restaurant...that has always been my defining music!

            "We refuse to fight in a war started by men who refused to fight in a war." -freewayblogger

            by Bisbonian on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 09:30:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Note the name: baby boomers (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Clem Yeobright

            The definition was based on the "boom" in births 1946-64. It had nothing to do with your cultural experiences after birth.

            •  Only in a strict economic sense (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Roger Fox

              Not in a cultural sense.

              My father was born in 1939 but he would never claim to have been part of the "WWII Generation".

              The "baby boom" was caused by the people who had fought in WWII having babies when they came back. My father was 6 years old at the end of WWII.

              Just because some economist had to pick a spot on a chart to draw the line and happened to pick 1964 doesn't make it so.

              If the pilot's good, see, I mean if he's reeeally sharp, he can barrel that baby in so low... oh you oughta see it sometime. It's a sight. A big plane like a '52... varrrooom! Its jet exhaust... frying chickens in the barnyard!

              by Major Kong on Fri Apr 05, 2013 at 05:19:03 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  I like your post (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    worldlotus, Nina Katarina, freerad

    I'm a boomer who is already in the zone of having my address book turn into a graveyard.  It's weird to think about some of the most wonderful people I've ever known, all boomers, already gone.  

    Shine like the humblest star.

    by ljm on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 09:10:36 PM PDT

  •  I agree with the diarist. The Republicans (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bisbonian, worldlotus, Nina Katarina

    always use the most pessimistic population and immigration growth models to make their tired old 16-3-2 formula work, but this is completely unrealistic.  Population and the number of employed workers will go up, and as the infamous Colorado pol whose name I can't remember, said "we boomers have a duty to die".

    If the trust fund predictions are for excessive draws against the Trust Fund, then it must be done.  Increase the payroll maximum from $106k to maybe $150k, problem solved.  It's just arithmetic, as Bill Clinton said.

    Republicans are like alligators. All mouth and no ears.

    by Ohiodem1 on Thu Apr 04, 2013 at 09:23:23 PM PDT

  •  Thanks For The Hat Tip! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Nina Katarina, Roger Fox

    I agree that the life expectancy projections are probably way way too optimistic, but I was not going to make a point of that. Millions of retirees are going to plunge into poverty and die prematurely from substandard living conditions, poor medical care, and yes, a huge increase in the rate of suicide.  We are already seeing sharp decreases in life expectancy in the most conservative parts of the country (pity the irony is lost on them).

    There’s always free cheddar in a mousetrap, baby

    by bernardpliers on Fri Apr 05, 2013 at 12:31:48 AM PDT

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