The recall election results are in this morning. Discussion over the jump.
Right to Keep and Bear Arms is a DKos group of second amendment supporters who have progressive and liberal values. We don't think that being a liberal means one has to be anti-gun. Some of us are extreme in our second amendment views (no licensing, no restrictions on small arms) and some of us are more moderate (licensing, restrictions on small arms.) Moderate or extreme or somewhere in between, we hold one common belief: more gun control equals lost elections. We don't want a repeat of 1994. We are an inclusive group: if you see the Second Amendment as safeguarding our right to keep and bear arms individually, then come join us in our conversation. If you are against the right to keep and bear arms, come join our conversation. We look forward to seeing you, as long as you engage in a civil discussion.
I've seen a few different reasons put forth why Senators Giron and Morse lost. They were outspent by the NRA. They're in conservative districts. Low voter turnout.
First, the Democratic Senators had more money on their side (Kos Diary).
Democrats dramatically outspent Republicans. Combined, Democratic-aligned groups spent $2.3 million, while GOP-aligned groups spent just $482K—$361K of that directly from the NRA. Indeed, without the NRA, there's no recall. Furthermore, most of the spending on the Democratic side has been from the campaigns themselves, not outside groups. (Note that our fundraising has been directly to the two candidates, which can use the money most effectively.)
The NRA isn't quite the financial powerhouse people think they are. Sure, they had a huge chunk of the total, but let's compare what DK raised: $310k or roughly 86% of what the NRA contributed. I'm not going to disagree with Kos' statement.
Next on the list: conservative districts.
State Sen. President John Morse's SD-11 is 33.2 percent Dem, 25.1 percent Republican, and 41.7 percent other. President Barack Obama got 61.2 percent of the vote, but Morse got just 50.6 percent of the vote in 2010. And Republicans have a plurality of "super voters"—those who voted in 2010, 2011 and 2012 elections in the district.
Sen. Angela Giron's SD-03 is 45.2 percent Dem, 22.9 percent Republican, and 31.9 percent other. President Barack Obama got 59.7 percent of the 2012 two-way vote, and Giron got 55 percent of the vote in 2010. Democrats have a solid advantage in "super voters", 14K versus 8K Republicans.
This sounds like a comfortably Democratic area. Which brings is to low voter turnout. I'll direct your attention to a different Kos diary (
link).
In Giron's district, nearly 67,000 votes were cast for president in 2012. 35,000 voted in this election.
In Morse's district, 52,000 votes were cast in 2012, while just 18,000 voted Tuesday.
Guess who didn't turn out.
So why didn't these people turn out? There were over 2,000 TV ads that were pro-Dem and 144 pro-recall (Republican) ads. We've had national attention on these recalls. Yes, from the NRA but also from Bloomberg and his people, the GOS, and other news outlets as well. Do these non-voting Democrats not care about the recall? The mail-in voting thing did probably hurt turnout as well, I won't argue that.
But what about the Democrats who just sat at home on purpose? One of the things that we put in our boilerplate is that gun control loses elections. It can keep pro-RKBA people from voting for pro-gun control Democrats, even when they voted for 'em before. Whether this means some actually flip or just stay home, it hurts us.
How do you think these recall elections will impact gun control in places that AREN'T New York or Cali or CT?
From Neo Control:
Poll Numbers
Highlights:
*Even split on mag ban, high support for "background checks," and high favorability for the NRA.
*33% of Democrats supported recall
*Despite winning the district overwhelmingly in 2010, Hickenlooper is now tied with Tom Tancredo in a hypothetical reelection matchup.
