Kansas' red hue may not be enough to save Republican Gov. Sam Brownback
Leading Off:
• KS-Gov: Gov. Sam Brownback has long suffered from dire approval ratings—something we saw in two new polls just last week—and now we have further evidence that even heavily Republican Kansas may have had enough of his extreme brand of conservatism. A new SurveyUSA poll shows Brownback trailing Democratic state House Minority Leader Paul Davis 43-39. Indeed, Brownback is hemorrhaging Republican support, leading Davis only 59-24 among members of his own party.
From the outset, Daily Kos Elections has believed that this contest is more competitive than it might initially look on paper, which is why we rated this race as Likely Republican. It would have been easy to write off the Sunflower State simply due to its demographics and call this race "safe" for Republicans, but this poll confirms our instincts. Still, it's a long way from here to victory, and Davis has a lot to prove.
There's also one optimistic note for Brownback. Twelve percent of respondents favor an unnamed "third party ticket," and more Republicans than Democrats (12 percent to 4) say they plan to vote that way. While it's possible angry Republicans will take door number three next year, independent bids (especially the hypothetical ones) usually lose much of their support as we get closer to Election Day. So if these wayward Republicans return home to Brownback, they'd give him a much-needed boost. But it looks like Democrats may just have the ingredients—a deeply unpopular incumbent and a credible challenger—to score an enormous upset in this dark red state. (Jeff Singer)
Senate:
• AR-Sen, Gov: After yielding little election night excitement the past few cycles, it looks like Arkansas is going to be a state with many eyes on it next November. Two statewide tossup races will do that for you, and as this poll from the University of Arkansas confirms, the Natural State has a pair of real coin flips.
As a litany of other polls have suggested, the Senate race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor and Republican Rep. Tom Cotton is deadlocked; UA says the same with thing, with Cotton at 37 percent and Pryor at 36. The open seat gubernatorial race to replace Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe is also tight. This poll gives Republican Asa Hutchinson a four-point edge (35-31) over former Democratic Rep. Mike Ross. However, UA has far more undecideds than we've seen in most other polling. Case in point: Cotton has released an internal from OnMessage showing him ahead of the incumbent 45-41.
Meanwhile, Pryor is trying to change the electoral calculus by hitting on a major national Democratic talking point. He's taking to the airwaves, hammering his GOP opponent on the shutdown. (Steve Singiser)
• LA-Sen: A second Republican legislator in Louisiana is saying he might run for Senate, state Rep. Paul Hollis. He joins fellow state Rep. Alan Seabaugh in the "unhappy with Congressman Bill Cassidy brigade," but so far, Air Force vet Rob Maness is the only conservative true believer to actually step up and oppose the establishment's choice.
Gubernatorial:
• MD-Gov: State Attorney General Doug Gansler keeps botching his response to revelations that he attended a house party filled with carousing high school seniors (including his son) last June and failed to put a stop to the underage drinking going on around him. Among other things, Gansler has claimed that: (1) he was only at the party briefly; (2) he couldn't be sure the kids were drinking beer because "there could be Kool-Aid in the red cups" (Jesus Christ, dude); and (3) a photo that portrayed him holding his cell phone at arm's length snapping pics of his own actually showed him reading text messages—he had to hold the phone at a distance because he's far-sighted, he says.
But local news station ABC7 interviewed two of the attendees who say that Gansler is full of it. The two anonymous teens say that Gansler was at the party a good long while and that massive inebriety was obvious. Says one: "People were literally pouring beer from the top level onto the floor and it was just so blatantly obvious." And one also adds that Gansler was most definitely taking photos or videos of his own.
I really wonder what's wrong with Doug Gansler's brain here. His judgment is obviously terrible, but if you're going to admit you've made mistake, at least own up to it fully. Don't concoct easily contradicted tales, especially when there are countless witnesses. I have to imagine Gansler's consultants are both seething and despairing right now, since the guy they're working for is totally destroying any attempt at damage control that might make this story fade away. How was this guy ever elected AG in the first place?
• NH-Gov: The University of New Hampshire sample that dribbled out results all last week finally got to the gubernatorial portion, and unfortunately it only has approvals. That's sensible, though since the GOP hasn't pinned down a top-tier competitor for Gov. Maggie Hassan yet, and her popularity may explain the hesitation: She sports a 57-14 approval rating. (David Jarman)
House:
• FL-13: There is no Justice. Pinellas County Commissioner Charlie Justice, who ran against Rep. Bill Young in 2010, says he won't run in the as-yet unscheduled special election to fill the late congressman's seat. Justice, a state senator at the time, came highly touted when he challenged Young, but he raised a pitiful $320,000 and got crushed 66-34. (The GOP wave that year didn't help much.) So it seems like Democrats have stronger options, whether it's 2012 nominee Jessica Ehrlich, ex-state CFO Alex Sink, or someone else.
• LA-05: At first glance, the general election contest between state Sen. Neil Riser and businessman and fellow Republican Vance McAllister looks like the familiar party insider versus conservative insurgent contest we've seen so many times over the last few years. However, Riser just scored two endorsements that play against type, as he just gained the support of both FreedomWorks and the Tea Party of Louisiana. Not sure if Eric Cantor and FreedomWorks have ever been on the same side in a GOP vs. GOP fight. (Jeff Singer)
• PA-05: It has been obvious in recent weeks that Democratic recruiting efforts for the House have been brisk, but here's a story that's quite the head turner. A recent meeting of Democrats in Centre County, Pennsylvania yielded an effort to draft a very familiar name: Paterno. Jay Paterno, to be exact, a former assistant football coach at Penn State under his late father, Joe Paterno. And it wasn't a Some Dude who urged Paterno to make the bid for Congress—it was state Treasurer (and gubernatorial candidate) Rob McCord.
This development is a shocker on two levels. For one thing, the Paterno name is almost always associated with the GOP: Jay Paterno's dad was a well-known devotee of the Republican Party, and one of his brothers, Scott, made an unsuccessful bid against Democrat Tim Holden a decade ago in PA-17.
Another surprise: Paterno would be running against veteran GOP Rep. Glenn Thompson, who has never faced serious competition in his three election campaigns. The district is not very amenable to Democrats (Mitt Romney carried it 57-42), and the scandals that befell the football program at Penn State could be ripe for oppo research. That said, there are still a lot of folks in the region who have affection for the Paterno name, and Jay Paterno would certainly be Thompson's most prominent challenger to date. (Steve Singiser)
Other Races:
• Boston Mayor: Depending on which poll you believe, the race to succeed Boston Mayor Tom Menino is either a close fight between City Councilor John Connolly and state Rep. Marty Walsh or clearly going Connolly's way. However, Walsh has a definite lead in one area: outside money.
CommonWealth Magazine estimates that pro-Walsh expenditures, many from labor committees, have widely exceeded those of Connolly's allies, $1.65 million to $190,000. Connolly does have a $663,000 to $230,000 lead in campaign cash, but pro-Walsh third party spending could make a big difference in this hard-to-read election, which is just a week away. (Jeff Singer)
• St. Petersburg Mayor: Both parties are spending heavily to win this officially non-partisan race in one of Florida's premier swing areas, and a new poll gives Democrats some good news. Braun Research, on behalf of a number of local news outlets, gives former Democratic state Rep. Rick Kriseman a 40 to 34 percent lead over incumbent Republican Bill Foster in the Nov. 5 general election.
Before we pop the victory champagne, there are a couple of caveats regarding this poll. Braun weighed its results by party registration, a move that has caused trouble for more than one pollster. The trendlines are also pretty strange here: Braun's last poll from mid-September had Kriseman up 40 to 39, so it's odd that more voters have apparently become undecided as we get closer to Election Day. Still, there's little doubt that Foster will need to work hard to keep this office that Republicans have held for decades. (Jeff Singer)
• WA State Senate: A quick follow-up from Thursday's story that environmentalist billionaire Tom Steyer had put another $3 million into his NextGen PAC, which has been playing heavily in Washington's SD-26 special election coming up next week. The Washington GOP's complaint about this maneuver was dismissed by the state's Public Disclosure Commission, after NextGen amended its filing to clarify that the $3 million was not intended for use in the special. (David Jarman)
Grab Bag:
• Maps: The Sunlight Foundation has put together some intriguing maps analyzing political contributions by county in every Presidential election cycle since 1992. There's far too much to summarize here and the entire thing is worth a look but one interesting find is the South's transformation into a Republican ATM. In 1992 there was far more parity between the two parties among political donors, with Arkansas almost exclusively donating to its Governor Bill Clinton. While there are a few blue spots in 2012, it's a sea of red now especially in Arkansas. (Jeff Singer)
• Term Limits: The Montana legislature is studying whether or not to eliminate term limits for itself; currently, legislators are restricted to eight years in the Senate and eight years in the House, but members of both parties are tired with how this system undermines the development of institutional memory. The linked article also features a helpful map of the 15 remaining states with term limits, and how long they are. The current move away from term limits is a broader trend: After the fad exploded in the early 1990s, six other states pulled the plug on term limits in the late '90s and early '00s. (David Jarman)