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Leading Off:

IL-Gov: Oof. There's simply no good news for Gov. Pat Quinn in PPP's new poll—the first anyone's conducted of the Land of Lincoln in a solid year. We've known for a long time that Quinn is deeply unpopular, but his performance against the Republican field is just disastrous, especially in a state this blue. Here's the ugly (like we say, there's no good, and there isn't even any bad), with those year-ago trendlines in parens:

41-38 vs. businessman Bruce Rauner

41-41 vs. state Sen. Bill Brady

39-39 vs. state Sen. Kirk Dillard (37-44)

39-41 vs. state Treasurer Dan Rutherford (39-43)

Remarkably, Quinn is actually doing a touch better than he was in November of 2012, thanks to a slightly improved job approval rating. Don't get any ideas, though: He's still at a disastrous 34-60, as opposed to an apocalyptic 25-64. What's even more troubling is that other, less radioactive Democrats don't fare much better—though of course, none of these alternatives are actually running, and the state's filing deadline is on Monday. State Attorney General Lisa Madigan leads Rutherford, the strongest GOPer, 45-40; Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is up 40-38; and former state Comptroller Dan Hynes ties at 34. A year earlier, Madigan was up 46-37, so the atmosphere has curdled toward Democrats generally.

That's most painfully exemplified by Barack Obama's job approval score, which stands at just 50-46 in his home state; this time a year ago, he was at 57-41. The poll's sample has also become noticeably redder. Respondents say they voted for Obama over Mitt Romney by just a 51-42 margin, even though the president won here 58-41. (PPP's prior survey was very close to reality, at 56-39.) That's a very bad sign for Democrats heading into 2014.

You add together the ongoing Obamacare screwups, a still-pretty-crummy economy for non-one-percenters, and Quinn's tax increases and feuds with the legislature, and you have a really lousy environment for the Democratic Party. You also have a serious chance at a Republican pickup, which is why we're changing our rating on this race from Lean Democrat to Tossup. Honestly, Lean D was probably generous, but we lacked recent polling. Now, Tossup may be generous to Quinn, too, since he'll really need things to turn around if he's to survive. But right now, it's hard to see what he can do to brighten his prospects.

P.S. The Republican primary isn't far off—March 18. We've actually seen a number of surveys of this race, though, and unlike in other polls, PPP has the free-spending, uber-wealthy Rauner leading, with 24 percent. Brady takes 17, Rutherford 14, and Dillard 10. Democrats are probably rooting for Brady, whom Quinn narrowly defeated in 2010, to emerge as the GOP nominee again, while Republicans would be smart to put forth Rutherford. But there are still a lot of undecideds, and Rauner's lead is small, so it's probably still anybody's race.


IA-Sen: We have a pair of different polls of Iowa's open seat Senate race, one of the GOP primary and one of the general. The former, conducted by The Polling Company on behalf of Citizens United, seems designed to lure conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats into the race; he leads with 28 percent, while no one else cracks double digits. Vander Plaats has been looking at a bid since September and has promised a decision by year's end.

As for the latter, it's from Republican pollster Harper Polling, on behalf of the website Conservative Intelligence Briefing, a frequent client. Dem Rep. Bruce Braley, who is still not that well known, beats all comers:

41-38 vs. former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker

41-37 vs. businessman Mark Jacobs

40-35 vs. radio host Sam Clovis

41-35 vs. former Chuck Grassley chief of staff David Young

42-36 vs. state Sen. Joni Ernst

Compared to a July PPP poll, things are a lot tighter. Back then, Braley led each Republican by around a dozen points; here, he's only up 3 to 6. Barack Obama's approvals are an awful 34-56, though that's considerably worse than his national average of 42-53 according to HuffPo Pollster. Considering Obama won Iowa by 6, this sample may be excessively bearish for Democrats. But even with those numbers, Braley's ahead and has a positive 33-28 favorability score of his own.

IL-Sen: Well, there actually was one bright spot in PPP's new Illinois survey—it just wasn't in the governor's race. Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin leads Republican state Sen. (and perennial candidate) Jim Oberweis 51-36 and a couple of Some Dudes by similar margins. Durbin's approvals are a non-awesome 46-40, but hey, those are a damn sight better than Pat Quinn's.

MS-Sen: State Auditor Stacey Pickering says that if Sen. Thad Cochran retires, he'll run for his Senate seat, though he definitely won't be the only Republican to do so. A boatload of potential GOP candidates, including Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann, awaits Cochran's decision, which he's promised by the end of the month. State Sen. Chris McDaniel is already running in the GOP primary. No Democrats have entered the race, but ex-Rep. Travis Childers says he's considering a bid.

SD-Sen: Rick Weiland's been spurned by the DSCC, but a whole of people the group is beholden to—you know, Democratic senators—are holding a D.C. fundraiser for Weiland next month. In fact, over 30 are on the list, with Sen. Tim Johnson, the man Weiland is hoping to succeed, leading the charge. Sen. Michael Bennet, the chair of the DSCC, is not on the list, but some other well-connected leaders are, like Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin.


NY-Gov: Two new polls have Dem Gov. Andrew Cuomo cruising to re-election, just as you'd expect. Quinnipiac finds Cuomo up 56-25 over Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, while Marist has Cuomo punishing Astorino by an even wider 65-23 margin. Marist also tested a few other names. Assemblyman Steve McLaughlin gets crushed 64-24; 2010 GOP nominee Carl Paladino gets rocked 67-24; and noted reality show jerkass Donald Trump gets obliterated 70-24. None of these potential candidates are actually running.

OH-Gov: Quinnipiac's new Ohio poll suggests the governor's race might be tightening, but they definitely don't see it quite as tight as PPP recently did. Quinnipiac finds GOP Gov. John Kasich lead over Democrat Ed FitzGerald at 44-37, sliced in half from 47-33 back in June. PPP, meanwhile, had the race deadlocked at 41 apiece in a survey conducted for the Ohio Democratic Party earlier this month.

So Fitz might have a shot here, but as we've seen elsewhere, there are several oddities in Quinnipiac's numbers, as DCCyclone points out. Kasich job approvals are a strong 52-33, for instance, and his re-elects stand at 48-39. It's strange to see such a big gap between those numbers and the 44 percent he takes in the horserace, though we've noted similar disparities in other Quinnipiac polls, like in Colorado. If Quinnipiac is right, then Kasich's head-to-heads ought to improve. But PPP had the incumbent's approvals at a weak 37-42, so it's hard to get a read on where things actually stand.

PA-Gov: Despite a darkening national environment for Democrats of late, things have only gotten worse for Pennsylvania's Republican governor, Tom Corbett. PPP's new poll shows him getting hammered by all comers, even more badly than in March:

30-50 vs. Jack Wagner

32-51 vs. John Hanger (34-41)

31-50 vs. Rob McCord (34-45)

33-48 vs. Allyson Schwartz (34-45)

32-47 vs. Katie McGinty

33-45 vs. Ed Pawloski

32-44 vs. Tom Wolf (33-42)

"Ouch" doesn't begin to cover it. Corbett's the most unpopular governor in the nation, per PPP, with a horrifying 34-65 job approval rating. And as he did in Illinois, Tom Jensen tested a couple of alternatives against the nominal Democratic frontrunner, Schwartz, and found them doing considerably better, albeit not well. Reps. Jim Gerlach and Mike Kelly both trail Schwartz, the former 39-31 and the latter 41-33. What stands out is how polarizing Corbett is: His presence on the ballot alone causes Schwartz to do 7 to 9 points better.

Unfortunately for the GOP, neither Gerlach nor Kelly (or anyone else, for that matter) has expressed interest in challenging the incumbent. But in hypothetical matchups, Corbett leads both congressmen by a very soft 42-31 spread, thanks to his lousy 41-45 job approval among Republican primary voters. He'd be very beatable, if only someone would try.

Democrats have to hope no one does, and in the meantime, they have to figure out who their standard-bearer will be. In the congested primary field, Schwartz takes 21 percent while Wagner is close behind at 17, McCord at 10, McGinty 9, Hanger 8, Pawloski 4, and Wolf sharing the caboose with two nobodies at 2. Given the large number of candidates, only 27 percent are undecided, but that's more than enough to give everyone a shot. And with Corbett looking so doomed, you can understand why everyone wants one.


CA-26: Looks like the GOP is changing horses in its efforts to unseat freshman Rep. Julia Brownley next year. Assemblyman Jeff Gorell just announced plans to run in the 26th District, and he's already been endorsed by ex-state Sen. Tony Strickland, who had taken steps toward a rematch with Brownley. But Strickland had long been rumored to be more interested in GOP Rep. Buck McKeon's neighboring 25th District, a redder seat that McKeon might vacate next year. McKeon still hasn't announced whether he'll retire or seek re-election, so Strickland either knows something we don't, or he's content to wait until McKeon does hang it up.

Gorell, meanwhile, is a decent get for Republicans. He's a Navy vet who recently served in Afghanistan, and he holds a 52-46 Obama district in the Assembly. But he only beat a Some Dude opponent, who didn't even appear to file any fundraising reports, by a 53-47 margin last year.

FL-19: Finally, here we go! While a few scattered Republicans had said Rep. Trey Radel should resign after his conviction for possession of cocaine, now Radel's local GOP organizations are calling on him to quit immediately, with the blessing of the state party. The Republican executive committees in Lee and Collier Counties issued a joint statement saying that Radel should step down right away, and that if he doesn't, he "would not enjoy our support" for re-election, sentiments that were echoed by state GOP chair Lenny Curry—and Gov. Rick Scott, who just so happens to be represented by Radel.

Radel is defiant, though, saying through a spokesman that he intends to "return to work as soon as possible" after completing his in-patient treatment for drug and alcohol addiction. But some nameless Republicans claim that Radel's rehab is bogus, and that he's been spending time on the phone plotting his political future rather than focusing on getting healthy. Those might just be unverifiable rumors designed to sabotage Radel, but I suspect it'll take a strong primary opponent to actually deter him from seeking a second term. And even then, that might not be enough. You just never know with guys like this.

It looks like Radel might indeed draw a serious challenger, though: ex-Rep. Connie Mack, who held this seat until last year, when he lost a bid for Senate. Mack has reportedly been putting out feelers about a possible return to office, and one nameless GOP operative claims he's "made his intention known." Another unnamed source tells Politico, though, that Mack hasn't made up his mind. A Mack vs. Radel primary could result in a very entertaining bro-down between two hardcore party boys.

NJ-03: Republicans have their first confirmed candidate in New Jersey's unexpectedly open 3rd District, Assemblyman David Wolfe. But it sounds like the local GOP establishment hasn't settled on anyone in particular yet, with some Republicans hoping former Burlington County Freeholder Bruce Garganio will enter the race. There's also the possibility, as we mentioned the other day, that 2013 Senate nominee Steve Lonegan could carpetbag to South Jersey to run here as well. Democrats, meanwhile, seem to be rallying around Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard.

Other Races:

WV Legislature: Despite telling Democratic leadership that he wouldn't do so just a few weeks ago, Delegate Ryan Ferns flipped his allegiance to the Republican Party on Monday. That reduces the Democratic majority in the state House to an even narrower 53-47, and Republicans will definitely be gunning to take control of the chamber next year. However, Ferns won't really help them. He announced that he's running for the state Senate, where the GOP faces a much wider 24-10 deficit.

That gives Dems a chance to win back Ferns' seat, and they have a good shot at holding him off in the Senate race as well. (He's not exactly a great get: After an ugly DUI last year, Ferns announced he'd resign, then later reversed course.) But his switch is definitely a sign of where things are headed in West Virginia politics.

Grab Bag:

House: At this point last cycle (just before Thanksgiving), six members of the House had announced their retirements. That's the same as this cycle, except there's one big difference: In 2011, all six were Democrats. This year, they're all Republicans. We've put together a chart comparing the two cycles so that you can see who announced and when. It doesn't necessarily portend anything, since a lot of Republicans started calling it quits just as 2012 rolled around, but it's still interesting to see where things stand. And here's hoping no one retires the day after the holiday (like Charlie Gonzalez did two years ago... grr!).

Media Markets: Daily Kos Elections has taken some occasional looks at the nation's media markets—both at their demographics, and at how best to leverage the different costs, to get the most "bang for the buck" in allocating political contributions—but now the analytics firm Civis is out with an interactive map that condenses all that information into one place and makes it easily clickable.

Data about media markets is proprietary and usually guarded zealously, so this may be the most information about them that's ever been publicly made available in one place. If you've ever wanted to spend the day pretending to be a campaign's media buyer, here's your chance to go nuts! (David Jarman)

WATN?: This is certainly not your usual post-Congress career move: Former Democratic Rep. Bill Delahunt has filed applications to open medical marijuana dispensaries in his home state of Massachusetts, pursuant to a new ballot measure passed last year that legalizes pot for ill patients. Delahunt will find out whether his bids are accepted on Jan. 31.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (11+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 05:00:15 AM PST

  •  Cuomo has been a HUGE disappointment (6+ / 0-)

    but he's still better than any Republican by miles and miles.

    •  I'd take Spitzer any day (4+ / 0-)

      over Cuomo.  At least Spitzer did all he could to get the Dems in the State Senate towards a majority, and wouldn't broker a deal giving the GOP control of the chamber when the Democrats won more seats.

      "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

      by TLS66 on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 06:46:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Try working for him. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Let's put it this way:  Pataki was a better boss.

      There is nothing liberal about Cuomo.  He's the worst sort of 3rd way triangulator, and wayyyyyyy too friendly with Wall Street and mega conservative donors - he took more money from the Koches than Scott Walker did during the 2010 cycle.

      He uses social liberalism and his last name to cover up this reality and try to dupe people into thinking he's actually liberal.

    •  Cuomo hasn't been a huge disappointment (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      to me. A disappointment, yes, but not a huge disappointment. He did, after all, fulfill one of his most controversial campaign promises and spent a fair amount of political capital in leading the legislature to approve gay marriage. He also spent a lot of political capital on pushing through the SAFE NY gun bill (for which he took a bit of a hit, in terms of popularity, for a few months after the NRA and their supporters were squealing like a bunch of greased pigs month after month).

      And for those who don't live in New York State, it doesn't seem like much of an achievment to merely enact a state budget on time,  but here in New York, where our state government has been notoriously dysfunctional over even the most basic of things, like a state budget, for many years, Cuomo's exercised leadership in getting a budget on time every year he's been in office.

      Cuomo's been somewhat of a disappointment to me, but he's done a pretty good job as governor, overall.

  •  Bruce Rauner is spending huge in IL gov race (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Geenius at Wrok, Odysseus

    His commercials are everywhere. Of course, they say absolutely nothing except "I'm not a politician." Oh, and he's also good buds w/Chicago Mayor Rahmbo.

    Talk about no good choices....

  •  Real bad news for state employees(me), (4+ / 0-)

    And those who draw state pensions(my wife).

    "Remember, Republican economic policies quadrupled the debt before I took office and doubled it after I left. We simply can't afford to double-down on trickle-down." Bill Clinton

    by irate on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 06:11:15 AM PST

  •  Just moved away from Illinois (3+ / 0-)

    We're in Texas now, though that's not (I think) our long-term destination.

    Illinois is a mess these days, and it was a mess before Quinn took over.  He's been left with a lot of crap left over from Rowdy Roddy Blagojevich, not the least of which are pension problems allowed to mount over a very long time.

    It doesn't help that he raised the state income tax by 50%, laid off thousands of people, then came back wanting another tax increase while the state economy is stagnant.  

    As to Durbin, I'll bet he kicks his heels in a happy dance every time he thinks of Oberweis, a man who should go back to his cows.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 06:25:37 AM PST

    •  Not 50 percent, 67 percent (0+ / 0-)

      . . . which is what you get, mathematically, when you raise the rate to a pitifully low 5 percent from an even more pitifully low 3 percent.

      "The great lie of democracy, its essential paradox, is that democracy is the first to be sacrificed when its security is at risk. Every state is totalitarian at heart; there are no ends to the cruelty it will go to to protect itself." -- Ian McDonald

      by Geenius at Wrok on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 07:08:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sorry -- You're right. (0+ / 0-)

        I keep thinking it was 4.5%.

        Don't forget that it's a flat rate, too - not progressive like many states.

        I have to admit, though, that I don't really mind that 5% raise I got by moving to Texas, which has no state income tax.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 07:18:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  In 2012 (0+ / 0-)

    Quin's job numbers never were very good - though their trial heats were.

    Man, we have seen some ugly numbers recently.

  •  Not Dem vs. Rep in IL (3+ / 0-)

    The core issue throughout Chicago's local politics is some very embedded families and connections that continue to siphon off a great deal of money from the system vs. improving things.

    It just so happens that a large number of these local politicians are Democrats.  They could as easily be Libertarian Zoroastrians as it was simply the party they chose to deliver power.

    State and Federal level individuals from Illinois struggle to separate themselves from these local groups while still not horribly offending them.  Sometimes the problems caused by these local politicians reflect on others that are not the cause.

    With the current state of the Illinois budget you'd think some of the locals would back off, but in fact post 2007 it has been worse.  As the music stops, they want to be certain they have grabbed their chair first.

    Sad really.

  •  is Obama reputation permanently damaged? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Obama seems to be suffering from a pair of severe double-whammy negative hits, both self-inflicted.

    1.  Notwithstanding a 3 1/2 year head start on getting it right, the launch of the ACA has been an incompetent disaster.  There are many government contractors who do software systems and systems of systems far more complicated than the ACA web site, and on shorter schedules.  They employ thousands of software engineers.  Why Obama's administration selected the incompetent contractor it did for the ACA web site is anyone's guess. The botched ACA web site, universally acknowledged as botched, damages Obama's reputation for competence.  The web site will eventually be fixed, probably not by the November 30 deadline, but eventually.  Much damage has been done to Obama's reputation - but some of this is recoverable.

    1.a. - A private sector CEO who presided over such a totally botched effort as the ACA web site would fire people.  Obama is not firing anyone.  This reinforces the cynicism so many voters have about the federal government - that federal government officials can be demonstrably incompetent and still keep their jobs, their pay and cushy benefits.  For the sake of Obama's own reputation, he needs to fire some people.

    2.  While Obama's reputation for competence has taken a severe hit from the ACA web site's failures, his reputation for truthfulness and honesty has also suffered.  Obama's misleading read-my-lips statement of if-you-like-your-health-care-plan-you-can-keep-it has given extraordinary ammunition to his political opponents.  He is openly being called a liar by many GOP right wing opponents.  

    He could have said if-you-like-your-health-plan-and-your-plan-meets-the-new-minimum-requirements-of-the-ACA,-you-can-can-keep-it but he didn't say that.  He said if-you-like-your-health-plan-you-can-keep-it.  That's quite different and many people think he was being too cute by half, misleading and/or lying.  A grievous self-inflicted wound.

    The damage to Obama's reputation for truthfulness and honesty will be harder to repair than his reputation for competence.  A botched web site can be fixed.  His if-you-like-your-health-plan-you-can-keep-it words cannot be fixed.  He can try to explain it away and clarify what he meant to say - but for many voters, he lied and mislead them.  I fear that his current low poll numbers will recover somewhat but that his damaged reputation for honesty and truthfulness is now embedded as a "given" for many voters.  We won't know until a few years from now, but my prediction is that Obama's approval rating will never again reach the earlier levels - not because of the ACA web site, but because of the if-you-like-your-health-plan-you-can-keep-it misstatement.

    I summarize the above as a long comment on why various polls of Senate and House races are showing Democrats doing so poorly now versus a few months ago.  When each poll also shows Obama's rating as severely underwater / negative, I do not view that as an overly GOP-weighted sample.  I fear it reflects the new reality of many voters who are not - as we are - dyed in the wool Democrats now believing that Obama is deceptive, not truthful.

    Democrats need to protect themselves and put distance between themselves (their former votes for the ACA) and the botched web site launch and Obama's read-my-lips misstatement.  I don't want to lose the Senate over Obama's self-inflicted screwups.

    •  Lanny Davis is that you? (7+ / 0-)

      This has to be the worst advice ever... Running away from your president only ensures your defeat, and all that "firing" someone does is make DC pundits like yourself happy, without someone to actually fix the problems, and it duels the fire even more.  Are you sure that you don't write for Politico?


      by LordMike on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 06:47:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  We get it.. (0+ / 0-)

      you're one of the Suxers. You don't like Obama.

      "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

      by TLS66 on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 06:48:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  wrong - did a triple shift walking door to door (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        for Obama in PA suburbs in both the 2008 PA primary and in the 2008 general election and in 2012 general election.

        Have donated well over $10,000 to his and other Dem campaigns (none - zero $ to any Republicans) since 2008. [That's dollars, not bitcoins.]

        Have already donated thousand of dollars to Dem 2014 campaigns.

        I worked the phones in the 2008 primary convincing friends here in PA suburbs to vote for Obama and not Hillary in the 2008 primary.

        Why is it so hard for people on here to accept criticism of our own candidate and President.

        Obama screwed up big time.  He knows it as do his supporters in Congress.

        You can ignore how badly he damaged himself.  When election returns come in on the night of Nov. 2014 you could be as surprised as Romney was in 2012 that our team has not done well.

    •  Thank you Captain Obvious (0+ / 0-)

      Are you going to post a version of this every morning?

      Frankly, control of the Senate wouldn't make much difference in 2015. They can't override any Obama veto. I'd rather have it of course but the general status quo isn't likely to change until January 2017 at the earliest.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 06:56:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's November (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The site launched in October, and its poor launch dominated the headlines.

      It's November now; December begins next week. The site's getting better. Headlines are moving on to the next thing. The holidays are upon us.

      In 2011, we thought the credit rating downgrade would permanently damage Obama's reputation. Last year, it was IRS/AP/Benghazi. Now, it's the crappy launch of the ACA.

      Point being ... these things fade from the headlines, especially as the policy implementation keeps improving. Maybe we'll be left with a vague irritation in the mind--"There's something annoying about him, but I can't remember the details"--and maybe not. That remains to be seen. But it's way too early to know.

    •  another poll and another Obama low (0+ / 0-)

      Today's reports on a new Quinnipiac poll of Ohio.  Obama's disapproval is the highest of his Presidency - 61% disapprove and only 34% approve.

      57% say he is not honest or trustworthy.

      People on here can continue to put their heads in the sand and deny the great damage the botched ACA web site rollout and Obama's you-can-keep-your-health-plan-if-you-like-it misstatement has done.

      Denial does not help us recover for 2014.

    •  Isn't he openly called a liar everyday (0+ / 0-)

      by the Gopers over something or another? The only thing the President and the Dems have botched is the messaging. No one lied about anything. The plan was if you had a good policy you could keep it. And you can, the ACA doesn't affect you. The GOPers blocked funding of the ACA and the messaging of the ACA every step of the way. No Democrat should be distancing themselves from the ACA, that would be suicide. They should be broadcasting the benefits from the mountaintops on a daily basis. And no one should be fired but the Gopers for not funding it or anything else this country needs.

  •  Nobody thought Quinn would win last election. (5+ / 0-)

    But, Brady is such an asshole that Quinn squeaked it out. I don't know anything about Rauner, but I doubt he is any better.

    The problem with political jokes is they get elected.

    by shoeless on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 06:42:34 AM PST

  •  Isn't Quinn one of the Dem Govs (0+ / 0-)

    who passed a big tax increase after 2010?  I wonder if the pollsters polled on reasons for his unpopularity.  It still boggles my mind everyday that Obama ran on a tax increase and won.  At the state level, they take tax increases much harder (except if you live in CA, apparently).

    If Hillary doesn't run in 2016 (I'm still only 50-50 in my mind that she will), Cuomo will likely get into the race.  He has name recognition and big state/moderate creds behind him.  I don't know how he campaigns, or if he's any good in front of a camera, but at this distance, he looks like he could be a serious candidate.

    The country typically elects a president that it sees as the opposite of the weaknesses of the previous president.  Nixon was "corrupt" - Carter was "honest".  Carter was "weak" - Reagan was "strong".  Reagan was a "delegator" - Bush was a "doer".  Bush was "detached" - Clinton was "empathetic".  Clinton was "sleazy/narcissistic" - Bush II was "born-again/simple".  Bush was "dumb and rigid" - Obama was "smart and nuanced".  and so on.  

    If you project this logic forward, you might say Obama's perceived weakness by average Americans is that he's "partisan and polarizing" (yeah, I know, that's funny, right?), so they'll  be tempted to elect a president who can show they are "cooperative and bi-partisan".  The next president will need to show that they worked with the other party, and sometimes pissed their own party off in the process.  Americans say they like that.  This is where a Christie-Cuomo can really appeal, and where things get a little complicated for Hillary, if she does run.  

    •  Tax increase alone isn't the issue. (0+ / 0-)

      The issue is what they did with it.  It was sold as a FIX for the pension issue.  Yet the pension issue was clearly not fixed.

      If Quinn DELIVERED on his promise, he'd be in great shape now.  He didn't. Why Illinois is Going Bankrupt

      It’s not quite fair to say that Illinois officials are doing nothing to defuse the most threatening pension time bomb in America. Darn close to nothing, that’s fair, which explains why the ratings agencies Fitch and Moody’s have put the state on their negative watch lists.

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      There are no Christians in foxholes.

      by Odysseus on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 07:53:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  He will be Brady (0+ / 0-)

    Brady is too right-wing to win.  He was the only Republican to lose a winnable race on the last midterms.  

    But I don't think he'll be the nominee, exactly for this reason.

    "Unrestricted immigration is a dangerous thing -- look at what happened to the Iroquois." Garrison Keillor

    by Spider Stumbled on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 06:57:24 AM PST

  •  Virginia's AG race will likely drag on a bit as (0+ / 0-)

    Obenshain will request a recount according to his team:

    Republican state Sen. Mark D. Obenshain will formally ask for a recount in the historically tight race for Virginia attorney general, leaving the final outcome still unclear three weeks after Election Day.
    The Obenshain team announced Tuesday afternoon that it would do just that. Two members of his legal team, Ashley L. Taylor Jr. and Stephen C. Piepgrass, will hold a conference call with the news media at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

    The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and those are ignorance, superstition, and incompetence. [Elbert Hubbard]

    by pelagicray on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 07:06:30 AM PST

  •  IL Dems have no one to fault but themselves (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, Willinois, Gygaxian, ltp102

    for the current predicament. Rahm Emanuel is a boy tyrant. Pat Quinn is a pitiful bumbler. Michael Madigan hasn't gotten the memo that Richard J. Daley is dead, or maybe he thinks he's the Boss's second coming. Even dyed-in-the-wool Democratic voters are getting fed up with the blatant self-dealing, nepotism and blamethrowing of the Machine Age party and its crony-capitalist successors. The party is alienating the union members to whom it owes its electoral success. It's given the African-American community the finger (except when it came to ward remapping time in Chicago, when it decided it would be more opportune to placate black aldermen by giving the finger to a couple of boat-rocking white aldermen instead). And while all praises are due to the General Assembly for finally legalizing gay marriage, Democrats couldn't have picked a better issue with which to get downstate conservatives all riled up.

    The state budget is an unholy mess with one elephant-in-the-room cause: the flat personal income tax, mandated by the state constitution. Quinn managed to get it raised, which also pissed off downstate conservatives, but it's still the second-lowest (or maybe third-lowest, I'll have to check) flat income tax rate in the country. We have some of the wealthiest communities in the nation on the North Shore and in DuPage County. It's pure self-sabotage not to have a progressive, graduated tax rate that captures that income in order to close the state budget gap.

    But no, instead of attack the problem at the root, our Democrats -- our Democrats are pointing fingers at unionized state employees and schoolteachers.

    Fuck these idiots. Fuck them forever. They have forfeited the Mandate of Heaven. They deserve to be overthrown.

    "The great lie of democracy, its essential paradox, is that democracy is the first to be sacrificed when its security is at risk. Every state is totalitarian at heart; there are no ends to the cruelty it will go to to protect itself." -- Ian McDonald

    by Geenius at Wrok on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 07:06:36 AM PST

    •  Madigan is the problem (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      He was a snake in the grass, setting up Quinn's defeat and putting his daughter in his place. But, bless her incompetent soul, she declined the governorship. Still, all the sniping and land mines Madigan set up for Quinn did their work.

      Quinn tried hard to fix the pension problem and Madigan stopped him every step of the way.

      What we call god is merely a living creature with superior technology & understanding. If their fragile egos demand prayer, they lose that superiority.

      by agnostic on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 08:05:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Let the gerrymandering begin. (0+ / 0-)

    Not to mention the long-standing poisoning of minds by RW nut job radio.

    Common sense would say that there is an electorate who wants to have better health care, jobs and a decent chance of having a government that doesn't have a portion of its politicians act like spoiled brats on a tantrum.  We need to be angry enough to side-step the poll indoctrination and find people who want to get the nation's business done for the country's citizens.

    Instead in order keep the country from falling into the toilet, we have to constantly fight Republican Teabagging place-holders every step of the way who are no better than the crud churned out from Faux and its minions.

    Hearing about the continuous supply of GOP candidates who are reading to do their handlers bidding is frustrating and demoralizing.

    When will the people wake up, think for themselves and fight for a quality politician?  Seeing these polls should make a person furious.

    "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." --Benjamin Franklin

    by politicalceci on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 07:13:01 AM PST

  •  Just because Quinn is not popular (6+ / 0-)

    doesn't mean that a Republican will win...esp. if he/she is too wingnutty.

    •  Agreed (4+ / 0-)

      which is why I wouldn't write off this race just yet.

    •  exactly (0+ / 0-)

      Let's remember 2010 when Quinn was polling as badly many months out.  There has to be an alternative to the Democrats for the Republicans to win.

      1) Dillard--won't raise money gone wingnut in the last few years.  

      2) Brady--dumbass, couldn't beat Quinn in the most Republican year evah.  Not a good campaigner, but probably my bet to emerge from the primary--he's strong downstate and even with Rutherford in the race, I don't think Rutherford does as well downstate. He's more of a suburban candidate on personality and issues.

      3)  Rauner--showing exactly the same pattern as every other self funded millionaire--sorry billionaire in his case.  He is running lots of spots, spending money early and getting a boost in his ratings.  Which will inevitably flop in a disastrous failure once the base figures out he's pro-choice and doesn't hate teh gay enough.  If you want to have some fun superimpose his numbers on every other self funder in Illinois and see the pattern repeating.  

      4) Rutherford--now he's dangerous. Not a wingnut and works his ass off on the trail.  Personable--but his problem is he doesn't hate teh gay enough and the wingnuts consistently gay bait him for being bachelor. However, if he makes it out of the primary, I think he takes the general.  The other three--not so much.

      As ridiculous as it sounds given Quinn's performance I don't see how he loses this race unless Rutherford improbably wins the primary.  I'm sure he'll try--see Vallas, Paul as an example, but I think he's bumbling into reelection.  

  •  Would you please chill out? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, politicalceci

    Quinn will be fine.
    The GOP is entering into a bloody primary season with at least 4 candidates who are busy punching each other. There's no  interest or fight on the Democratic side, so it's time to sit back and let Brady, Rauner, Rutherford & Dillard make fools of each other.
    Take this off the front page until after the primary, please.

    Repeal Amendment 2. Now.

    by bornadem on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 07:47:42 AM PST

  •  Quinns polling (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Willinois, ltp102

    is no surprise to me after he went after his employees so ruthlessly.

    I dunno who's worse - him or Rahm.  But I can say neither one are all that liberal from my out-of-state point of view.

  •  Next IL poll MUST include Green candidate. (2+ / 0-)

    Third Party candidates for Governor got about 8% of the vote in 2010. The Green candidate got 10% in 2006 last time Democrats had a nominee this unpopular.

    It makes some sense not to include a third party candidate now since it would be nothing but an unknown "other" choice. But, if Greens pick a candidate it will impact the outcome of the race.

    Pat Quinn's disapproval with Democrats is at 42% in the PPP poll. There are many Democratic public employees who will either vote third party or vote for a Republican if the GOP picks a moderate like Rutherford. They will not vote for Quinn.

    I don't write this out of any support for the Greens. There's simply no doubt that in the future, any poll that doesn't include third party candidates is inaccurate because they will most certainly impact the outcome of the race.

    •  Come on Will (0+ / 0-)

      The Green Party's only successful year was Blagojevich vs Topinka when people thought Judy was a wingnut and knew that Blagojevich was a crook.  There is no evidence to suggest 2014 will be anything like 2006 and saying that the Green candidate must be included doesn't mean anything.  On top of it, without a named candidate, the introduction of a third choice would be more problematic.  

      Quinn may face a problem with Rutherford, but the Green Party has shown no ability to attract votes and while public employees aren't thrilled with Quinn, the other choices are even worse for them except possibly Rutherford.  

      Remember, there appears to be a pension deal that should take that issue off the front burner for the fall. Rauner, Dillard, and Brady are all far more anti-union than Quinn and so while some unions are upset with him, they have worse choices with the Republicans.

      Top this all off with SEIU being in Quinn's corner over several issues including the unionization of home care and home child care workers and he has the best union in terms of turnout on his side despite all of these other problems.

      IFT will not sit back in a race against any of the three and they are second most effective.  AFSCME is upset, but has no where else to go and despite the pension issue, Quinn has greatly increased the number of positions that are union eligible in state government.  That hasn't received much coverage, but it's a very big issue for them.

  •  Picking Vallas as running mate will hurt (0+ / 0-)

    Chicago Teachers Union will not vote for a ticket with Vallas on it!

  •  CO Leg news (0+ / 0-)

    This morning, State Senator Hudek resigned.  This thwarts Republican recall efforts and keeps the stste Senate in Democratic hands since vacancies in Colorado are filled by a vacancy committee from the member's party.

  •  Quinn (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    demjim, Geenius at Wrok, Willinois

    has poor support from one of the most important democratic constituencies around: public school and university employees. His failure at protecting pensions of these employees, his willingness to allow their pensions to remain unfunded and to cut their benefits, means that these constituencies have no incentive to try to help him get re-elected.

    It's always darkest before it gets less dark.

    by Karma Electra on Wed Nov 27, 2013 at 10:52:06 AM PST

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