Vladimir Putin appears to have thoroughly dug in his heels over his bid to annex Crimea as a part of Russia. He seems determined to proceed with the referendum scheduled for this Sunday. The outcome of that vote is not in much doubt. The world's major nations are on record with varying degrees of forcefulness as saying that it is a violation of international law and that they will not recognize the results. Today's New York Times has two interesting and I think generally convincing articles that demonstrate how Putin is becoming alienated from two nations that have generally been his allies, Germany and China.
On Ukraine, Merkel Finds Limits of Her Rapport With Putin
For all the familiarity, and despite hundreds of hours spent together during more than a decade as the leaders of their respective countries, Ms. Merkel has so far been unable to bridge the gap with Mr. Putin on Ukraine. She appears exasperated by his unwillingness to avoid further provocative steps, much less de-escalate the crisis — she reportedly told President Obama after one recent conversation with the Russian leader that Mr. Putin was in “another world” — and her government is increasingly signaling a willingness to lead Europe toward a harder line on sanctions and other steps to pressure and isolate Russia.
Germany's effort to find a working balance with post Soviet Russia predate Merkel. They have resulted in major economic ties. Sanctions that would disrupt those ties would be very painful. Angela Merkel is an adroit and canny politician who does not make impulsive moves.
China Torn Between Policies and Partnership
From the NATO air war in Kosovo to the American invasion of Iraq, China’s opposition to foreign interference in a country’s internal affairs has been one of the mainstays of its foreign policy, along with a strategic partnership with Russia to counteract the diplomatic and economic might of the West.
Those two imperatives have collided over Ukraine, placing China in an awkward bind. It does not want to alienate its strategic partner, which has lobbied heavily for China’s support for its intervention in Ukraine. Yet it cannot be seen as supporting a referendum in Crimea, which Russia backs, on the peninsula’s possible secession from Ukraine. For Beijing, that comes uncomfortably close to approving a vote on independence for Tibet or Taiwan.
China’s solution has been to equivocate, but in a way that appears to hand a diplomatic victory to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia as he faces off against the United States and Europe over Ukraine.
I'm not so sure that a lack of overt opposition amounts to a diplomatic victory, but it does seem to be about as close as Putin is likely to get to one in this situation. The more important question with China is what would they do if Russia becomes locked in a protracted battle of economic sanctions with the West. China would have to face a choice of whether to increase its economic ties with Russia to soften the economic blow. This would also pose some major challenges for the larger
BRICS alliance.
The whole business of national sovereignty and international law can get messy and complicated. When there is an effort by parts of a nation to separate itself form the rest of the nation, the success of that ultimately depends on international recognition and support. Most nations, including the US, have not taken a consistent legal position on the absolute sanctity of national sovereignty. Giving or withholding of recognition usually comes down to a matter of international politics. That is what is happening here.
Usually territorial breakups happen at some remove from the centers of international power. Crimea is about as central to the international chess board as you can get. The UN Security Council will be rendered impotent in the matter because of Russia's certain veto of any resolution on the matter. If this issue is pushed to a direct confrontation on international law, it has the potential to create some major shakeups in global relationships. For example the choices that Germany and China make could have significant impact on future circumstances.
We won't have to wait long to see the next move. If Putin makes further moves based on Sunday's vote, the rest of the world will be forced to deal with those on a fairly immediate basis.