There are 60 state house districts, and while in the past I've gone through each one, this year I'm not going to do that. I will simply describe what I expect to be the top races, and then some other races that may prove interesting. Rather than 60 races, this will end up covering more like a dozen.
Currently Democrats have a majority in the house of 34 out of 60, Republicans have 26 seats. Democratic seats are mainly from the Portland metro area, including most of the suburban seats, two seats in the Salem area, every seat in the Eugene-Springfield area, all but one of the seats on the Coast, the seat in Corvallis, and a seat in southern Jackson County, where Ashland is. The rest of the state is represented by Republicans. Most of the action is usually in districts on the outer edge of the Portland suburbs, and that will be no different this year.
Below I cover some of the key races, races that expect will determine the make-up of the house in the next session, as well as some other races to watch below that which I don't expect to, but may prove interesting for one reason or another. For key races the fundraising numbers were collected from Orestar since yesterday afternoon (7/17) until this morning (7/18), for the races to watch they were from about a week earlier.
Key Races
HD-20
2012 Presidential results: 52.3% Obama
Open
Republican Vicki Berger's retirement opened up this extremely marginal district in the Salem area, where Barack Obama did only about 0.34% better than he did nationally. While Democrats have done well here in statewide and congressional races generally, moderate Republicans have held on to the legislative districts here with ease most of the time. In 2006 Democrat Paul Evans ran for the state senate district and came close to winning this portion of it, and Evans, a veteran and former municipal politician in Monmouth is the Democratic nominee in this race. Evans has raised nearly $62,000 so far this year and has just under $27,500 in the bank right now. Republicans had a 4-way primary and Kathy Goss, a former school administrator won the nomination. Goss has raised just under $54,800 this year and has just over $4,100 in cash at the moment. Both parties seem to have gotten the nominees they wanted, and given the district is as closely divided as they come, it will definitely be a top race to watch.
HD-29
2012 Presidential results: 56.4% Obama
Open
I was worried when Freshman Democrat Ben Under decided to call it quits after one term, but Susan McLain has assuaged my concerns with her strong fundraising relative to her Republican opponent. McLain has raised over $47,100 so far and has over $30,600 in the bank. Her Republican opponent Mark Richman, a Deputy District Attorney, has only raised a little more than $12,800 this year (and total less than $20,000 since entering the race), with only about $4,200 in the bank. This district includes southwest Hillsboro, much of which is heavily Hispanic, as well as the college town of Forest Grove, and the city of Cornelius, which is majority Hispanic. Given the large Hispanic population, there is low turnout, especially since this will be a midterm election. In 2010 it was such that we lost this district, which was also open then, and John Kitzhaber also lost it by a similar amount in the gubernatorial election. Given that our candidate currently has more resources, and the Democrats at the top of the ticket are going to do quite well here, I am not so worried. From my estimates this district is still trending Democratic, so that should help us too.
HD-30
2012 Presidential results: 58.7% Obama
Incumbent: Joe Gallegos (D)
It seems like others are treating this like it'll be a real race, and we did lose it in the last midterm election, so maybe it will be, but I'm not terribly worried so long as Rep. Gallegos is working hard to get re-elected. This district includes the remainder of Hillsboro that's not in HD-29, plus the small city of North Plains (which Obama narrowly won in both 2008 and '12). It's wealthier and less Hispanic than HD-29, and has higher turnout. There are reasons we could be worried, though. Like HD-29, John Kitzhaber did lose it in 2010, just as we lost it then when it was open. As well, when Gallegos defeated an incumbent in 2012, his margin was smaller than the number of votes the Libertarian candidate received. At the same time the district has trended more Democratic since then, the Libertarian candidate is running again, the Republican is a carpetbagger who ran in a neighboring district in 2012, Kitzhaber will win this district strongly, and Gallegos has proven to be a good enough campaigner. He's raised over $43,200 this year and has nearly $36,900 in the bank, while his Republican challenger Dan Mason has raised just under $28,600 and has under $12,300 in the bank.
HD-40
2012 Presidential results: 54.5% Obama
Incumbent: Brent Barton (D)
Republican Steve Newgard lost to Barton for this open seat in 2012, but Barton, who'd previously held another seat in Clackamas County from 2009-2011, defeated him. Barton, an Ivy League-trained attorney whose father is also a famed attorney here in Oregon, made an ill-fated run for state senate in 2010, but after redistricting found an open district to try his luck in again. His previous district included parts of Happy Valley and Estacada, as well as many rural precincts, but this one is mostly just Oregon City and Gladstone, with just a few unincorporated and rural precincts. Both cities are slightly Democratic-leaning, making this a fairly moderate suburban district, though generally less wealthy than many of the other heavily white suburban districts in the state. Given this is Barton's first time running for re-election, it will certainly be a test of how well he's been able to establish himself. His previous campaigns have all been pretty strong, even his 2010 loss. He carried over more than $26,600 in his campaign account from last year and has raised over $17,300 this year, with about $19,000 left in cash right now. Newgard carried over about $7,200 and has raised an additional $7,050 this year, with less than $5,250 in cash right now.
HD-51
2012 Presidential results: 54.2% Obama
Incumbent: Shemia Fagan (D)
In 2012 Fagan defeated an incumbent Republican despite being pregnant and giving birth during the final months of the campaign, overall waging one of the more impressive campaigns of the year here. Her district includes some of the least Democratic precincts in Portland, being in outer Southeast, as well as heavily Republican Damascus, and parts of Republican-leaning Happy Valley and Dem-leaning unincorporated Clackamas. I expect her campaign to be no less strong this year. Her opponent is Republican Jodi Bailey, who shortly after entering had to explain to the media about her family's bankruptcy. I generally don't think it's my business if someone's family struggled like that, but she said that she learned important lessons from the experience, and then I noticed in early July that her campaign account was in the red. I had to wonder what those lessons she learned were. Anyway, Fagan carried over about $5,700 and has raised $64,750 this year, with over $14,000 in cash right now. Bailey has raised over $57,200 and has just under $9,900 in cash right now (and owes $2,000 to her consultant), but the only reason she's not in the red right now is a $10k contribution from Stimson Lumber, which had previously given her $30,000, and which is run by Andrew Miller who's also given her $5,500, and she's gotten another $11,500 from other Republican state reps. So her campaign has mostly been funded by Andrew Miller and Stimson lumber, with a bit more from leadership PACs and such, and very little on her own. In other words I'm not impressed. Still, this is a swingy district and it looks like the Republicans want to keep Bailey competitive and will bankroll her with whatever's necessary.
HD-52
2012 Presidential results: 52.85% Obama
Incumbent: Mark Johnson (R)
Democrats won this district in 2008 and quickly lost it again in 2010. In 2012 Johnson had the tacit support of John Kitzhaber and Democrats largely conceded the race when we nominated a candidate who promised not to take contributions of more than $50 or from outside the district, and who in the end raised very little. Surprisingly, Johnson only prevailed by a few points. The Democratic candidate this year, Stephanie Nystrom, has already been fundraising fairly vigorously, having raised nearly $40,200 so far and with over $30,800 in the bank. In comparison, Rep. Johnson has raised nearly $50,200 this year and has about $14,600 in the bank, which is actually less than the almost $15,200 he carried over from last year. Now this district includes northeastern Clackamas County, with Sandy being the biggest city and also the Mount Hood Villages, plus three rural precincts in eastern Multnomah County, and then Hood River County. Of the three counties, the parts of Clackamas and Multnomah lean a bit Republican, and Hood River leans Democratic, but tends to see a lot of ticket-splitting between Democrats at the top of the ticket and those running for legislature (and Congress, as the county disproportionately supports local boy Greg Walden). In 2012 our candidate lost because of his underperformance in Hood River County. Nystrom will need to do a bit better.
HD-54
2012 Presidential results: 55.9% Obama
Open
Bend's state house district gave Democrats a pleasant surprise when incumbent Jason Conger decided to run against Senator Merkley, opening up the most Democratic district Republicans hold in the state House. However, 2012 Republican SOS nominee Knute Buehler got in for the Republicans and has quickly put together a huge mountain of money for his campaign. He entered the year carrying over more than $38,000 and has raised almost $276,500 this year, with over $190,800 in cash right now. He's received many contributions from fellow doctors of one kind or another (and their PACs) but most of that came from a $240,000 loan he gave to his own campaign. Democrat Craig Wilhelm, former Deschutes County Dems Chair, has raised decent money but it doesn't look like he's going to try to buy the seat the way Buehler is. He's raised about $39,500 and has over $33,800 left. Buehler lost the only race he's run, but he won the Bend area pretty handily when he did. I am kind of pessimistic about this race because of Buehler throwing his money around, but I don't count it as lost yet, either.
Races to Watch
HD-09
2012 Presidential results: 51% Obama
Incumbent: Caddy McKeown (D)
McKeown is the only Democrat in the state representing a district that leans Republican at the federal level. It's based in Coos Bay/North Bend, stretching up the coast from there to Yachats. McKeown won an open seat in 2012 by double digits while Barack Obama only won the district by a hair. She should have been a top target for Republicans this year, and they tried to get the chair of the Coos County Republican Party as her opponent, but failed. Instead 2nd amendment activist Casey Runyan won the Republican nomination, and he only raised $500 by July 4th, while at the same time Caddy McKeown had over $54,800 in her campaign account. Runyan is an extremist, has little understanding of issues, and is not running a serious campaign. In such a marginal district, though, Democrats need to never be complacent.
HD-19
2012 Presidential results: 53.5% Romney
Open
Because it is a contested open seat race I think will be interesting to see the results of this slightly Republican-leaning district in south Salem. Republican Jodi Hack, who only recently moved to the district, will almost certainly win the race, but I'm interested in seeing Democrat Bill Dalton's performance. Hack has raised significantly more money than Dalton, but Dalton is raising money. This is not an entirely one-sided race.
HD-22
2012 Presidential results: 55.8% Obama
Incumbent: Betty Komp (D)
Democrat Betty Komp ran for this district in 2002, losing it by a mere 92 votes, then came back in 2004 and won by 1750 votes, and has held it since. In 2010 she was held to 52.6% of the vote, but she still held on. Republicans always hope to take it, but this majority-Hispanic district based in Woodburn, Gervais, and parts of Salem is stubbornly Democratic, and seems to be getting more so. It's a close district, though, so one to keep an eye on.
HD-23
2012 Presidential results: 55.6% Romney
Open
Why is this so strongly Republican district a Race to Watch? Because after Republican Mike Nearman successfully primaried incumbent Jim Thompson after Thompson endorsed gay marriage, other Republicans have been upset. Upset enough that one, Dallas City Councilwoman Beth Jones sought and won the Independent Party nomination, meaning there will be two Republicans and one Democrat, Wanda Davis, on the ballot. If Jones is able to mount a credible campaign, there is a chance of a serious split in the Republican vote that could put Davis in contention. Our candidate in 2012 did extremely poorly, but that was against an incumbent. In a real 3-way race it will be unpredictable.
Update: Beth Jones has dropped out of the race so this one won't be at all interesting.
HD-24
2012 Presidential results: 51% Romney
Incumbent: Jim Weidner (R)
Weidner has been an embarrassment to Republicans for years, and he may have finally met his match. Democrats have tried to take him down, but our best candidate was recruited in 2010, the worst year in recent history to challenge an incumbent Republican. This time Weidner faces Ken Moore, who has raised about double the money Weidner has this year. That is one indication that he may be a good candidate. I've been let down in this district too many times before to think we'll win (we lost a different version of this McMinnville-based district by 359 votes in 2006), but it's definitely always a district to watch.
HD-25
2012 Presidential results: 55.6% Romney
Open
Why is another strongly Republican district another Race to Watch? Once again, its because of an Independent Party candidate and a Republican primary going to the most conservative candidate, but this time there's no Democratic candidate. The Republican nominee is controversial radio host Bill Post, a teabagger as vitriolic as they come, while the Independent is Chuck Lee, who I believe was the Democratic nominee in 2006. This isn't your usual 3rd party candidacy, either. While Lee has not raised as much as Post, he has raised a respectable amount, and still has a lot left, while Post blew most of what he raised in the primary. Additionally, Lee has been endorsed by many prominent Republicans and Democrats in the region, including the Marion County DA, Sheriff, State Representative Vicki Berger of Salem, a noted moderate Republican, and former State Rep. Vic Backlund of Keizer. He's also been endorsed by former Yamhill County Commissioner Mary Stern, a Democrat, and the Salem-Keizer Education Association, a local affiliate of the NEA. Much of the district is in Marion County, including Keizer and St. Paul, and it also stretches to envelope Newberg in Yamhill County. These are two of the most conservative sizable cities in the Willamette Valley, but we'll see if a bipartisan-supported Independent can mount a real challenge to a tea party extremist. It should be interesting.
HD-37
2012 Presidential results: 53.8% Obama
Incumbent: Julie Parrish (R)
Parrish lucked out that Scott Bruun challenged Kurt Schrader in 2010, opening this seat in West Linn and Tualatin up for her narrow win that year. In 2012 she narrowly held on. This year Democrats are not even really trying. Democrat and environmental activist Gerritt Rosenthal is not mounting a very serious challenge, so I guess we're definitely in for more of Parrish's bloviating and more controversies for another term.
HD-49
2012 Presidential results: 58.6% Obama
Incumbent: Chris Gorsek (D)
Gorsek should be safe, but it will be an interesting race to watch. Democrats have only won this district in 2008 and 2012 out of recent elections, despite that most districts this Democratic in the rest of the state are pretty invulnerable to Republican challenge. Gorsek lucked out when no Republican filed to run against him, but then Bill Beckers won the Republican nomination via write-in, and promised to run "a spirited campaign". We're yet to see that, as by July 8th he had not filed any financial disclosures with the state. Gorsek in all likelihood will solidify Democratic control in the seat, which would be a beautiful thing to see out in the eastern suburbs of Multnomah County.
HD-50
2012 Presidential results: 56.2% Obama
Open
Popular Democratic incumbent Greg Matthews of Gresham is retiring from the House to be Gresham's new Fire Chief, and former Gresham Police Chief (and current school board member) Carla Piluso is the Democratic nominee in the district. Piluso has run a spirited campaign so far for the open seat, which has been held by Dems since 2008. Her opponent is her fellow Gresham-Barlow school board member Dan Chriestensen, who was nominated by write-in after Republicans failed to get a candidate to file. Piluso should be able to win comfortably, as Chriestensen isn't running much of a campaign so far, but an open, marginal seat in the suburbs is always one to watch.
11:08 AM PT: And update in HD-09: The Republican Party of Oregon is not supporting Casey Runyan.