At the beginning of the year, we heard a lot of talk about how 2014 was going to be another Republican wave year, like 2010, or bigger. Now, however, it's clear that 2014 has not followed the same trajectory as 2010.
By this time in 2010, Democratic fortunes were sliding downhill fast, according to generic congressional ballot polling questions. This year—not so much. Take a look at the trends (Loess curves):
The generic ballot has been stable all year for 2014, and with a small Democratic advantage (although not nearly enough to take back the House). Things can always change—but as of now, there's no evidence of a developing Republican wave.
In past years, massive waves have been quite obvious by now. Here's the data going back to 2002:
It's only six elections worth of data, so it's difficult to draw conclusions or attempt predictions, but it's pretty clear the mood of the electorate this year is different from 2010 or 2006.
Data from HuffPost/Pollster and Real Clear Politics. Polls of Registered or Likely Voters only for 2012 and 2014.
