Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO) at right
Monday brought us a bunch of new polling in several different Senate races. Here's a quick roundup of the numbers:
• AR-Sen: Marist: Tom Cotton (R): 45, Mark Pryor (D): 40 (May: 51-40 Pryor).
• CO-Sen: Marist: Mark Udall (D-inc): 48, Cory Gardner (R): 42 (July: 48-41 Udall).
• IA-Sen: Loras College: Bruce Braley (D): 45, Joni Ernst (R): 41 (June: 48-42 Ernst).
• KY-Sen: Marist: Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 47, Alison Grimes (D): 39, David Patterson (Lib): 9 (May: 46-45 McConnell).
• ME-Sen: Rasmussen: Susan Collins (R-inc): 59, Shenna Bellows (D): 31 (April: 60-24 Collins).
• NC-Sen: Public Opinion Strategies (R): Kay Hagan (D-inc): 44, Thom Tillis (R): 44, Sean Haugh (Lib): 7 (May: 44-41-8 Hagan). (Note: Poll conducted for Tillis and the NRSC.)
• NH-Sen: Kiley & Co. (D): Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 50, Scott Brown (R): 42. (Note: Poll conducted for the DSCC.)
Note that Marist switched from a registered voter screen to a likely voter screen, a move that has, predictably, hurt Democrats. For instance, among RVs, Pryor and Cotton are tied at 41 apiece. That's still a big drop from Pryor's 11-point lead in May, but it's very similar to the phenomemon we saw last week
with CNN, which had Pryor down 2 among LVs but up 9 with RVs.
The story is somewhat similar in Kentucky, though Grimes, who trailed by just 1 among RVs in May, is now doing poorly with them, too, down 45-38. But while you'd expect Republican voters to come home to McConnell, that's not what's happened; rather, it's Grimes who's slipped, apparently because at least some anti-McConnell voters would rather pull the lever for a Libertarian than a Democrat. (Patterson wasn't included last time.) By contrast, in Colorado, Democrats aren't facing much of a gap: Udall has a 48-40 lead with RVs, little different than his LV lead.
One other big methodological change also produced a big change in outcome in Iowa. Previously, Loras College had only sampled people who voted in 2010, a decision that would undoubtedly yield up a Republican-friendly sample. Now they've switched to polling folks who voted in 2012 and say they are either "extremely" or "very" likely to vote this fall. That's helped boost Braley, though it may also be that the spike in negative ads hitting Ernst has finally started working.
Overall, the numbers are positive for Democrats in Iowa and Colorado, negative in Kentucky and Arkansas, and pretty steady-state in New Hampshire and North Carolina. As always, keep the Daily Kos Elections Poll Explorer bookmarked so that you can view all the data in context, and check out our bi-weekly Polling Wrap for all the latest polling news.
