New polling this week has Gary Peters (D-MI) in his strongest position of the cycle.
On a week that has arguably been among the better polling weeks for the Democrats, an unheralded story has been the recent move on the generic ballot, and how it seems to be contrary to what we saw (at least, this week) in race-by-race polling.
More than one "Democrats are doooooomed" piece has been written as of late based on Obama job approval and generic ballot numbers that are more than a little alarming. But, on balance, this week's data has looked pretty decent for Democrats. While some numbers are mildly disappointing, Democrats have some improving numbers in perilous races ranging from the governor's race in Illinois and the U.S. Senate races in North Carolina and Colorado.
To peruse all of the data since the last edition of the Wrap (spanning dates from Sep 9-11), head below the fold and see the pretty substantial 78 different polls that made the cut this week (and a lot more).
CO-Sen (SurveyUSA): Sen. Mark Udall (D) 46, Cory Gardner (R) 42
GA-Sen (SurveyUSA): David Perdue (R) 47, Michelle Nunn (D) 44
IA-Sen (PPP for Americans for Tax Fairness—D): Joni Ernst (R) 45, Bruce Braley (D) 43
KY-Sen (Magellan for the National Mining Association—R): Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 50, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42
KY-Sen (Mellman Group for Grimes—D): Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 43, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 42
MI-Sen (Glengariff Group): Gary Peters (D) 47, Terri Land (R) 37
MI-Sen (PPP): Gary Peters (D) 43, Terri Land (R) 36
MI-Sen (Suffolk Univ.): Gary Peters (D) 46, Terri Land (R) 37
NC-Sen (Garin-Hart-Yang for the DSCC—D): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 48, Thom Tillis (R) 45
NC-Sen (Rasmussen): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 45, Thom Tillis (R) 39
NC-Sen (SurveyUSA): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 46, Thom Tillis (R) 43
NH-Sen (Global Strategy Group): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48, Scott Brown (R) 41
NJ-Sen (Fairleigh Dickinson Univ.): Sen. Cory Booker (D) 42, Jeff Bell (R) 29
NJ-Sen (Stockton Polling Institute): Sen. Cory Booker (D) 49, Jeff Bell (R) 36
SD-Sen (SurveyUSA): Mike Rounds (R) 39, Rick Weiland (D) 28, Larry Pressler (I) 25
VA-Sen (Christopher Newport Univ.): Sen. Mark Warner (D) 53, Ed Gillespie (R) 31
AL-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Robert Bentley (R) 62, Parker Griffith (D) 28
AR-Gov (YouGov): Asa Hutchinson (R) 45, Mike Ross (D) 38
AZ-Gov (YouGov): Doug Ducey (R) 39, Fred DuVal (D) 38
CA-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Jerry Brown (D) 53, Neel Kashkari (R) 35
CO-Gov (SurveyUSA): Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 45, Bob Beauprez (R) 43
CO-Gov (YouGov): Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 45, Bob Beauprez (R) 45
CT-Gov (Quinnipiac): Tom Foley (R) 46, Gov. Dan Malloy (D) 40, Joe Visconti (I) 7
CT-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Dan Malloy (D) 42, Tom Foley (R) 41
FL-Gov (Associated Industries of Florida—R): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 43, Charlie Crist (D) 40
FL-Gov (PPP): Charlie Crist (D) 42, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 39
FL-Gov (SurveyUSA): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 45, Charlie Crist (D) 44
FL-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 46, Charlie Crist (D) 43
GA-Gov (SurveyUSA): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 45, Jason Carter (D) 44
GA-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 47, Jason Carter (D) 39
HI-Gov (YouGov): David Ige (D) 37, Duke Aiona (R) 35, Mufi Hannemann (I) 6
IA-Gov (Loras College): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 56, Jack Hatch (D) 34
IA-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 51, Jack Hatch (D) 38
ID-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Butch Otter (R) 51, A.J. Balukoff (D) 33
IL-Gov (Global Strategy Group for the DGA—D): Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 43, Bruce Rauner (R) 40
IL-Gov (YouGov): Bruce Rauner (R) 44, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 40
MA-Gov (YouGov): Martha Coakley (D) 43, Charlie Baker (R) 35
MD-Gov (YouGov): Anthony Brown (D) 51, Larry Hogan (R) 37
ME-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Paul LePage (R) 43, Michael Michaud (D) 39, Eliot Cutler (I) 15
ME-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Paul LePage (R) 38, Michael Michaud (D) 37, Eliot Cutler (I) 10
MI-Gov (Glengariff Group): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 44, Mark Schauer (D) 42
MI-Gov (PPP): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 43, Mark Schauer (D) 42
MI-Gov (Suffolk Univ.): Mark Schauer (D) 45, Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 43
MI-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 44, Mark Schauer (D) 43
MN-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Mark Dayton (D) 48, Jeff Johnson (R) 41
NE-Gov (YouGov): Pete Ricketts (R) 54, Chuck Hassebrook (D) 34
NH-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 51, Walt Havenstein (R) 34
NM-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Susana Martinez (R) 48, Gary King (D) 43
NV-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) 51, Robert Goodman (D) 29
NY-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) 52, Rob Astorino (R) 28
OH-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. John Kasich (R) 50, Ed FitzGerald (D) 30
OH-Gov (YouGov): Gov. John Kasich (R) 50, Ed FitzGerald (D) 37
OK-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Mary Fallin (R) 53, Joe Dorman (D) 35
OR-Gov (YouGov): Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 48, Dennis Richardson (R) 42
PA-Gov (Quinnipiac): Tom Wolf (D) 59, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 35
PA-Gov (YouGov): Tom Wolf (D) 50, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 39
SC-Gov (PPP for the SC Democratic Party—D): Gov. Nikki Haley (R) 50, Vincent Sheheen (D) 45
SC-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Nikki Haley (R) 56, Vincent Sheheen (D) 35
SD-Gov (SurveyUSA): Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) 54, Susan Wismer (D) 34
SD-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) 55, Susan Wismer (D) 28
TN-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Bill Haslam (R) 56, Charlie Brown (D) 29
TX-Gov (Benenson Strategies for Davis—D): Greg Abbott (R) 46, Wendy Davis (D) 38
TX-Gov (YouGov): Greg Abbott (R) 56, Wendy Davis (D) 38
VT-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) 45, Scott Milne (R) 35
WI-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 49, Mary Burke (D) 45
WY-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Matt Mead (R) 53, Pete Gosar (D) 25
AZ-01 (Tarrance Group for Tobin—R): Andy Tobin (R) 51, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 43
CA-21 (SurveyUSA for KFSN): Rep. David Valadao (R) 56, Amanda Renteria (D) 37
CA-33 (Garin-Hart-Yang for Ted Lieu): Ted Lieu (D) 55, Elan Carr (R) 36
IL-10 (DCCC IVR—D): Rep. Brad Schneider (D) 47, Bob Dold! (R) 42
IA-01 (Loras College): Pat Murphy (D) 35, Rod Blum (R) 33
IA-02 (Loras College): Rep. David Loebsack (D) 49, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 32
IA-03 (Loras College): Staci Appel (D) 40, David Young (R) 34
IA-04 (Loras College): Rep. Steve King (R) 47, Jim Mowrer (D) 36
LA-06 (Glascock Group—R): Paul Dietzel (R) 60, Edwin Edwards (D) 40
LA-06 (Glascock Group—R): Dan Claitor (R) 59, Edwin Edwards (D) 41
LA-06 (Glascock Group—R): Lenar! Whitney (R) 55, Edwin Edwards (D) 45
NY-21 (Siena College): Elise Stefanik (R) 46, Aaron Woolf (D) 33, Matt Funicello (G) 10
If one looks at the recent dump of "generic" 2014 congressional polling, the general consensus has not been
particularly encouraging for Democrats.
If you go back a couple of weeks, these are the results you get:
Fox News: Republicans +7 (LV, 9/7-9/9)
CNN/ORC: Republicans +4 (LV, 9/5-9/7)
ABC: Republicans +3 (LV, 9/4-9/7)
NBC/WSJ: Republicans +2 (RV, 9/3-9/7)
Kaiser Family Foundation: Democrats +3 (RV, 8/25-9/2)
GWU Battleground Poll: Republicans +4 (LV, 8/23-8/28)
What's more: where there have been trendlines (which, for Fox, CNN, and ABC, are nonexistent because they switched to LV screens with this cycle of polls), they have edged away from Democrats in the last round of polls.
This, of course, has given rise to the increasing use of the word "wave" to describe the potential outcome of the 2014 elections. This seems silly on several grounds, many of which I will discuss this weekend with an essay during Sunday Kos (spoiler alert!).
However, there is an additional source of intrigue here. The actual contests, by and large, seem to be looking better for the Democrats in recent weeks, not worse.
Consider seven races here. If we assume that the Democrats are highly likely to lose the open seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia (and our own Poll Explorer model suggests just that), then the Democrats have to win five of the seven seats that are currently rated as either tossups or leaning Democratic.
Look at the most recent simple five-poll average in each race, compared with the five polls that came before that. This is not a pure apples-to-apples comparison, because the times don't line up exactly (some races, of course, are polled more than others), but it shows the change in these races over time, just the same.
AK-Sen: Last five avg—Begich +0.8; Previous five avg—Begich +0.4
AR-Sen: Last five avg—Cotton +1.6; Previous five avg—Cotton +0.2
CO-Sen: Last five avg—Udall +2.8; Previous five avg—Udall +0.6
IA-Sen: Last five avg—Braley +1.0; Previous five avg—Braley +0.8
LA-Sen: Last five avg—Landrieu +0.2; Previous five avg—Cassidy +1.0
MI-Sen: Last five avg—Peters +5.0; Previous five avg—Peters +4.0
NC-Sen: Last five avg—Hagan +2.2; Previous five avg—Hagan +1.2
With the exception of Arkansas, the position of the Democratic candidates in these pivotal Senate races has either basically held steady, or even improved marginally, over the most recent spate of polls. This would seem to contradict the "erosion" seen in the generic polls.
At this point, one does have to wonder about the utility of national generic ballot tests, anyway, at least so far as it is being used to draw conclusions about the balance of power in the Senate (which is now getting an outsized amount of the focus on the 2014 cycle).
It is not unduly optimistic to suggest that, at this point, it is likely that voters are at least a little bit familiar with their Senate candidates, given that we are a tad over seven weeks from Election Day. At least, one would assume that is true of the first-tier races.
None of this should be meant to suggest that Democrats are in some kind of enviable position. The general consensus is that they are starting the cycle with a three-seat deficit, and therefore they need to win a majority of the seven tight races that remain (assuming they can't pick up any seats themselves—and it must be said that they certainly can pick off one of those seats). While those five-poll averages show that is possible, only Peters in Michigan has what we could describe as a modest-but-clear lead. The Senate is the battleground because there are a number of genuine coin flips, and the control of the chamber is very much at stake. That is something that has not changed in the past month, despite the much ballyhooed movement on the generic ballot front.
