Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy with the Big Dog himself
:
• CT-Gov: Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy has not had an easy few years. In 2010 he narrowly beat Republican Tom Foley 50-49, and Foley is back for a rematch. The economic crisis has forced Malloy to make some tough decisions, and he's never been particularly popular even in this blue state. Recent polls have not been kind to Malloy, and both parties are spending big here.
However, on Monday, PPP gave Team Blue some long-awaited good news. They found Malloy leading Foley 43-35. When supporters of independent Joe Visconti are asked to pick one of the two main contenders, Malloy's lead drops a little to 45-39. This is PPP's first look at the state this cycle and the first publicly released poll since mid-September: The group definitely deserves some thanks for taking a look at this important but woefully underpolled race.
Like everyone else, PPP finds that Malloy is unpopular, sporting a 40-50 job approval. However, Democrats have been working hard to portray Foley as a vulture capitalist, and the Republican has unintentionally helped make their job a lot easier. According to PPP, all of this has left Foley with a dire 34-49 favorable rating. As we've noted before, it's very hard to win in a state hostile to your party when you're the less popular candidate. The undecideds report voting for Obama and Romney in roughly equal numbers.
This is only one survey, and it's far too early to say that Malloy has opened up a clear lead after months of blech polling. Neither party has given any indication that they're willing to give up on this expensive state and Foley has more than enough resources to keep going. Democrats should be happy to get some long awaited good news from the Nutmeg State, but we should wait for conformation from other sources before concluding that Malloy is the favorite here.
3Q Fundraising:
• FL-02: Gwen Graham (D) $820,000 raised; Steve Southerland (R-inc) raised $620,000
• IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D-inc) $683,000 raised, $1 million on hand
• MN-08: Rick Nolan (D-inc) $641,000 raised
Senate:
• AK-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Begich is going to need to wring out every possible advantage he can in his against-all-odds battle for re-election, and one constituency he's making an enormous effort to stay tight with is Alaska's large but far-flung native community. That's why the Washington Post's Philip Rucker headed deep into the Last Frontier to see exactly how Democrats are getting out the vote among Alaska Natives.
In short, Begich has deployed a massive army of paid and volunteer staffers throughout the state's massive rural interior, where only about 20 percent of the population lives and where people often still lack Internet access and communicate by CB radio. He's sent out robocalls in native languages (apparently a first) and even says his campaign has "knocked on every single door in rural Alaska"—a claim Republicans aren't willing to gainsay.
And it's all summed up perfectly in this map, which shows the locations of Begich's 16 field offices, manned by 90 staffers, compared to just 5 offices and 14 staff members for Republican Dan Sullivan. Even one prominent Republican says there's "no comparison" between the two operations. If Begich survives, his unprecedented rural outreach could very well be the difference-maker.
• GA-Sen: Aim at foot, flip switch to "full auto," depress trigger:
U.S. Senate candidate David Perdue said Monday he is proud of outsourcing he has done in his career as a corporate executive, pushing blame for lost jobs back on Washington.
Perdue, a former CEO for Dollar General and Republican nominee to replace retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss, was stung by his own words last week in an article on Politico.com. The Washington political news website quoted Perdue from a 2005 deposition where he said he "spent most of my career" outsourcing.
"Defend it? I'm proud of it," he said in a press stop at The White House restaurant in Buckhead. "This is a part of American business, part of any business. Outsourcing is the procurement of products and services to help your business run. People do that all day."
• KY-Sen: On Monday, SurveyUSA gave Democrat Alison Grimes some good news. On behalf of local news outlets, they found Grimes
leading Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell 46-44, a reversal of the 46-42 McConnell lead they found in late August.
Recent independent polls have been pretty bad for Grimes. In the last few months she has trailed from anywhere from 4 to 8 points. Last week a Grimes poll from the Mellman Group showed her up 42-40; while Mark Mellman has a very good reputation, until now he was the only pollster showing Grimes ahead. The last time Grimes led in a poll was in June, when a PPP survey on behalf of Americans for Tax Fairness showed her up 2. The last time an independent pollster showed her up was in May, when SurveyUSA gave her a 43-42 edge. For their part, McConnell's team is dismissing this as an outlier but they haven't released any contradictory numbers.
It's always good to be skeptical when one pollster finds something different than the rest of the pack. As we've noted in the past, SurveyUSA has a tendency to be very erratic. In the last few weeks nothing appears to have happened in this contest to cost McConnell the lead. For now, we should wait until more pollsters weigh in to see if Grimes has in fact narrowed or reversed the gap, or if this is an outlier. In any case, both parties have spent big to try and win here and that's not likely to change.
• Polling: With less than a month before the election, it's not a surprise we got quite a few polls during the weekend and on Monday. First off, there's YouGov's third wave of every-Senate-race polling, and you'll definitely want to read Tyler Yeargain's critique. Yeargain is a YouGov panelist and has written about his experiences before. This time, he points out several questionable issues with YouGov's methods, including the fact that the poll he responded to led off with several questions about ISIS, before even getting to the horserace. (And if you've ever wanted to be a panelist yourself, you can check it out here. I just joined myself.)
We've also got a bunch of surveys from other outfits:
• IA-Sen: Loras College: Joni Ernst (R): 42, Bruce Braley (D) 42 (Sept.: 45-41 Braley).
• IA-Sen: Magellan (R): Ernst: 50, Braley: 41 (conducted for Priorities for Iowa).
• IA-Sen: Marist: Ernst: 46, Braley: 44 (July: 43-43 tie).
• KS-Sen: Marist: Greg Orman (I): 48, Pat Roberts (R-inc): 38.
• MI-Sen: PPP (D): Gary Peters (D): 49, Terri Lynn Land (R): 42 (Sept.: 47-40 Peters) (conducted for the League of Conservation Voters).
• NC-Sen: Marist: Kay Hagan (D-inc): 44, Thom Tillis (R): 40, Sean Haugh (Lib): 7.
Unfortunately Loras, like YouGov, maddeningly asked a pair of questions about ISIS
before getting to the horserace. Pollsters,
please do not do this.
Gubernatorial:
• IA-Gov: Here's an unusual story that's really more about media buying — and about Terry Branstad's quest for his white whale — than it is about the Iowa gubernatorial race becoming suddenly competitive. Branstad just bought $88,000 worth of ad time in the Quincy, Illinois media market. That's not the most cost-efficient way to win the gubernatorial race, since (if you refer to Daily Kos Elections' handy media market spreadsheet), you'll see that the Quincy market covers only 1.2% of the state's population, and only 13% of the Quincy market is in Iowa.
Now one way to spin that might be "Gee, Branstad must be really desperate, trying to eke out every possible vote!" It's not about desperation, though; it's apparently a quest by Branstad to win Lee County, that little appendix that sticks out of Iowa's southeast corner. Lee County is not just the only county in Iowa in the Quincy market, but also one of only two counties in Iowa that Branstad has never won in his five previous successful gubernatorial elections. The other county is Johnson County, where Iowa City and the University of Iowa are, so he's probably not going to win that under any circumstance.
• WI-Gov: Republican pollster Gravis Marketing, which epically botched their last Wisconsin poll, has tried again, and this time, they find GOP Gov. Scott Walker up 50-46 on Democrat Mary Burke. Last week, they had Burke up 50-45 but said they were calling backsies on the survey "due to a skew in Milwaukee respondents."
• Polling: And a few more gubernatorial polls:
• GA-Gov: Rasmussen: Nathan Deal (R-inc): 49, Jason Carter (D): 43 (Sept.: 45-44 Deal).
• IA-Gov: Marist: Terry Branstad (R-inc): 58, Jack Hatch (D): 36 (July: 53-38 Branstad).
• KS-Gov: Marist: Paul Davis (D): 44, Sam Brownback (R-inc): 43.
• MD-Gov: Univ. of Maryland: Anthony Brown (D): 47, Larry Hogan (R): 38.
• MI-Gov: PPP (D): Rick Snyder (R-inc): 47, Mark Schauer (D): 46 (Sept.: 46-44 Snyder) (conducted for LCV).
• MN-Gov: Rasmussen: Mark Dayton (D-inc): 50, Jeff Johnson (R): 40 (Aug.: 49-41 Dayton).
• MN-Gov: SurveyUSA: Dayton: 51, Johnson: 39 (Aug.: 49-40 Dayton).
Anthony Brown has to be breathing a bit of a sigh of relief, because
recent indicators had been pointing to a tighter-than-expected race.
Marist's Kansas gubernatorial poll is Brownback's best showing outside of YouGov's polls and his own internal he released in late August. NBC's Chuck Todd offers an interesting observation that partly speaks to this result: One in five Brownback voters support independent Greg Orman's Senate bid. One possible explanation is that Orman's lack of a party label has enabled him to secure more crossover support; another is that Roberts is simply even less popular than Brownback. Both theories could well be right.
House:
• AZ-01: Here's an interesting parallel story taking place in Arizona's 1st Congressional District: At the same time that Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is fighting for her political life, voters in the Navajo Nation will go to the polls to elect a new president. The district is a quarter Native American, making it the most Indian in the nation, and Kirkpatrick's native ties are unusually close, given that she grew up on an Apache reservation. (She also released radio ads in the Navajo language earlier this year.)
Meanwhile, reports Jack Fitzpatrick, GOP state House Speaker Andy Tobin does not have a strong relationship with the tribe, unlike other Republicans who've represented the region in the past. That could be a real boon for Kirkpatrick, since the Navajo presidential race is hotly contested and turnout is expected to be very high. Some 100,000 Navajo are registered in the district, and 65,000 came out to vote in 2010. Kirkpatrick says she's planning her "largest tribal GOTV effort ever," and she'll need all the help she can get.
• FL-02, NJ-03: On Monday morning, the Republican pollster National Research released twin polls showing Republican candidates in the mid-40s in swingy districts. The Democrats quickly released a response poll in Florida:
• FL-02: Anzalone Liszt Grove Research (D): Gwen Graham (D): 48, Steve Southerland (R-inc): 45 (April: 46-39 Southerland)
• FL-02: National Research (R): Graham: 39, Southerland: 45
• NJ-03: National Research (R): Aimee Belgard (D): 37, Tom MacArthur (R): 44
Both parties are spending big here, and Daily Kos Elections rates each race as
Tossup/ Tilt Republican. A
trio of recent polls in NJ-03 (two commissioned by the DCCC, one done independently by Stockton University) show a close race. In Florida, these two polls are the first publicly released surveys we've
seen in months Interestingly, Anzalone's memo mentions a previously unreleased set of April trendlines that confirms a swoon another Democratic pollster, Pathfinder Opinion Research, also saw at the same time.
As is our wont at Daily Kos Elections, we took a look at National Research's past record, analyzing their final 2010 and 2012 polls conducted from October on. (Anzalone Liszt Grove formed this cycle after Anzalone Liszt Research and Grove Insight merged; we'll examine their separate records soon.) Here's 2010:
• AK-Sen: National Research: Joe Miller (R) 33-31-27; Actual: Lisa Murkowski (Write-in) 39-35-23; error: +6 Miller
• AZ-05: National Research: David Schweikert (R) 45-43; Actual: David Schweikert (R) 52-43; error: +7 D
• CT-04: National Research: Dan Debicella (R) 46-42; Actual: Jim Himes (D) 53-47; error: +10 R
• MI-07: National Research: Tim Walberg (R) 49-36; Actual: Tim Walberg (R) 50-45; error: +8 R
• NJ-06: National Research: Frank Pallone (D) 44-43; actual: Frank Pallone (D) 55-44; error: +10 R
• NJ-12: National Research Scott Sipprelle (R) 43-42; actual: Rush Holt (D) 53-46; error: +8 R
Not including the bizarre Alaska Senate race, their average error was 6 points in the GOP's direction. While they actually underestimated the Republicans in AZ-05 by quite a bit, they were very bullish for the GOP is the other races, sometimes by considerable levels. A similar thing happened in 2012:
• CT-Sen: National Research: Linda McMahon (R) 42-39; actual: Chris Murphy (D) 55-43; error: +15 R
• CT-05: National Research: Andrew Roraback (R) 45-39; actual: Elizabeth Esty (D) 51-49; error: +9 R
• NC-Pres: National Research: Mitt Romney (R) 48-47; actual: Mitt Romney (R) 50-48; error: +1 D
The group nailed North Carolina in their survey on behalf of the conservative Civitas Institute. However, they badly overestimated both Connecticut Republicans.
They also partnered with the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group in 2012 for a few polls for the Philadelphia Inquirer:
• NJ-Pres: NR/GSG: Barack Obama (D) 51-41; actual: Barack Obama (D) 58-41; error: +7 R
• NJ-Sen: NR/GSG: Robert Menendez (D) 50-32; actual: Robert Menendez (D) 59-39; error: +4 R
• PA-Pres: NR/GSG: Barack Obama (D) 49-43; actual: Barack Obama (D) 52-47; error: +1 D
• PA-Sen: NR/GSG: Bob Casey (D) 49-42; actual: Bob Casey (D) 54-45; error: +2 R
There numbers were much more in line with the actual election results. Note that the New Jersey poll was conducted before Hurricane Sandy hit, and it's very possible that Obama's handling of the storm could have given him a boost in the Garden State.
Altogether, National Research appears to have a very clear Republican lean, especially when it's polling for Republicans on its own. Both races are expected to be very close, and that group's past performance doesn't give us any reason to think otherwise right now.
• IL-10, 11: To go along with last week's trio of Illinois House polls from We Ask America, here are two more:
• IL-10: Brad Schneider (D-inc): 46, Bob Dold! (R): 44.
• IL-11: Bill Foster (D-inc): 47, Darlene Senger (R): 44 (June: 46-41 Foster)
As we'll never tire of pointing out, WAA
performed atrociously in its attempt to survey House races last cycle. In the 10th, they had Dold (then the incumbent) winning 54-46 in their final poll; he went on to lose by 2 points. Even more disastrously, they found Rep. Judy Biggert tied with Foster in the 17th at 50 apiece. She got destroyed by a brutal 57-41 margin. In fact, every WAA miss was in the GOP direction.
The one detail worth noting is that a DCCC in-house robopoll a month ago had Schneider up by a slightly wider 47-42 margin. Republicans haven't released any polling here since early July, though.
• ND-AL: Freshman GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer has finally responded to that remarkable Democratic poll showing state Sen. George Sinner leading freshman beating him 40-38—in North Dakota, of all places. The survey, from WPA Research, finds Cramer ahead 48-38, which still doesn't seem all that great for such a red state.
And Cramer's had his share of stumbles. He just had to yank down a TV ad that he illegally shot in a state veterans' cemetery. Federal rules, which the state follows, forbid the use of military cemeteries for political activities, but also, wouldn't common sense and ordinary respect tell you to keep cameras and consultants out of a graveyard?
Common sense may be in short supply at Cramer HQ, though. The congressman's also come under fire for another TV ad in which he claims he led the fight for the long-delayed farm bill that finally passed earlier this year. But actual North Dakota farmers say that Cramer was one of those responsible for the delays—and they're not wrong, considering he once said he did not feel "a great urgency" to pass a farm bill at all.
Now, let's be realistic here: A Sinner victory would be the biggest upset of the year, and the odds he pulls it off are low. But Cramer did win his first term last cycle with under 55 percent of the vote, so we're going to put this race up on the big board as Likely Republican, just in case the unexpected happens.
• DCCC: After some triage information from House Majority PAC last week, now we're on to triage information from the biggest kid on the House Dems' block: the D-Triple-C. Again, the usual caveats apply: These are only cancellations of reservations made long ago, not cancellations of upcoming ad buys. Triage also doesn't necessarily mean you're dead, it could just mean that a third-party group is tapping in to the ring (although you'll notice some repetitions here from the HMP list, so for those ones, help clearly isn't on the way).
The majority of these changes benefit the Republicans as the playing field narrows, but on the plus side, there's some refocusing on the Dems' best offensive opportunities too. On the cancellation side, there's only one because the Dem is apparently safe: John Garamendi in CA-03. Contrast that with cancellations where the Dems are on the offense but apparently not getting traction: CA-10 (Jeff Denham), IA-04 (Steve King), IL-13 (Rodney Davis), MI-07 (Tim Walberg), MI-08 (open), MI-11 (open), NY-23 (Tom Reed), PA-06 (open), and PA-08 (Mike Fitzpatrick). There's only one cancellation where Dems are on defense and ready to throw in the towel: the open NY-21. Of these 11 seats, House Majority PAC also canceled airtime in IL-13, MI-07, MI-08, and PA-06.
As for additions, they're buying additional time in defensive races in MN-08 (Rick Nolan), IL-10 (Brad Schneider), IL-12 (Bill Enyart), and NY-18 (Sean Patrick Maloney ... though this is one where the HMP pulled out last week, so it's more of a tradeoff than a panic move). Plus, they're buying additional time in two offense races, so these may be the Dems' best pickup shots this year: IA-03 (open) and NE-02 (Lee Terry).
Other Races:
• DC Mayor: After April's Democratic primary it looked like this race was all but over. While it looked very possible that scandal-tarred incumbent Vincent Gray could lose in November to independent Councilor David Catania, Gray lost his primary to Councilor Muriel Bowser first. In was hard to imagine Catania getting much traction against Bowser in this heavily Democratic city, and this contest largely fell off the radar.
However, some recent polls show the contest between Bowser, Catania, and former Councilor Carol Schwartz (another independent) a lot closer than planned. A mid-September poll from Marist gave Bowser a 43-26 lead over Catania, with Schwartz at 16. A group called Economic Growth D.C. (which describes itself as a business group neutral in this contest) also found Bowser leading Catania only 35-27, with Schwartz at 11. On Monday, veteran DC pollster Ron Lester found the closest matchup yet: He gives Bowser just a 34-30 lead over Catania, with Schwartz at 16.
It's not entirely clear what's going on here. Bowser has largely been playing it safe since she won the Democratic primary, avoiding debates and ignoring her foes. By contrast, Catania has been active, criticizing her record. Bowser did get some good news on Monday when President Obama endorsed her: Obama won the district 91-7. It's hard to see any Democrat losing in a city this blue, but this contest may be worth keeping an eye on.
• NY State Senate: Oh jeesh. Siena's previous two polls of GOP-held state Senate seats in New York were pretty awful for Democrats. Their new trio of polls of Democratic-controlled seats is miserable, too:
• SD-41: Susan Serino (R): 52, Terry Gipson (D-inc): 40
• SD-46: George Amedore (R): 52, Cecilia Tkaczyk (D-inc): 42
• SD-55: Rich Funke (R): 57, Ted O'Brien (D-inc): 32
Even though Siena's track record leaves a lot to be desired, there's no getting around how tough these numbers are. Democrats were incredibly lucky to win both the 41st and the 46th in 2012: Gipson prevailed in the former with just 44 percent thanks to a three-way split, while Tkaczyk won the latter by just 18 votes after a recount. All three of these seats
were carried by Barack Obama, but that doesn't mean quite so much in a midterm year, and what's more, these are three of the four reddest districts held by Democrats (apart from the seat held by Simcha Felder, who caucuses with the GOP).
Now, Republicans have been outspending Democrats, so in a way, none of this is too surprising. But Team Blue has to hope for a very strong finish to avoid losing ground in the Senate this year.
Grab Bag:
• Bloggingheads: Last week, I recorded a Bloggingheads segment with the Washington Examiner's very erudite Betsy Woodruff. We didn't discuss the typical topics (who's gonna hold the Senate, etc.) but rather got our hands dirty with the kind of stuff that junkies really dig, like how California's top-two primary is altering elections, or who's the worst pollster in all the land. (Okay, spoiler alert: I didn't not say McLaughlin.) Click and have a gander!
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: American Crossroads continues to tie Democratic Sen. Mark Begich to Obamacare. On the Democratic side, Alaska Salmon PAC spends $141,000 while the League of Conservation Voters shells out $300,000.
• AR-Sen: VoteVets hits Republican Tom Cotton for cutting veterans' care. The DSCC also a spot with a survivor of domestic abuse criticizing Cotton for voting against the Violence Against Women Act. Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor has been running similar ads for the last few days.
In the red corner, the Emergency Committee for Israel recently aired this spot hitting Pryor on national security. We now know it ran for $960,000.
• CO-Sen: American Crossroads argues that Washington turned Democratic Sen. Mark Udall into an Obamacare loving negative campaigner. For his part Udall is one of the first Democrats to use ISIS in a spot (the GOP has been the one to use them up till now). Udall's ad portrays himself as someone who is determined to defeat the group.
• GA-Sen: American Inc. spends $200,000 for Team Red.
• IA-Sen: Democrat Bruce Braley talks to the camera, calling for bipartisanship. The Susan B. Anthony List spends $113,000 for the GOP.
• KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell continues to connect Democrat Alison Grimes to Obama on coal.
• MI-Sen: VoteVets praises Democrat Gary Peters' military service and record of supporting veterans. On the GOP side, a few outside groups are continuing to spend despite Terri Lynn Land's sagging poll numbers. Ending Spending shells out $612,000 tying Peters to convicted felons, while the creatively named B-PAC commits another $285,000.
• MN-Sen: A GOP group called Hometown Freedom Action Network spends $341,000 against Democratic Sen. Al Franken.
• NC-Sen: Planned Parenthood hits Republican Thom Tillis on contraception and women's health.
• NH-Sen: Republican Scott Brown has two new spots (here and here). He ties Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen to Obama in both. Ending Spending also portrays Shaheen as weak on terrorism.
• NextGen Climate: Various pro-Democratic expenditures.
• NRA: Various pro-GOP expenditures.
• Senate Majority PAC: Various pro-Democratic expenditures.
• CO-Gov: The RGA continues to attack Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper on gun control, immigration, and his indecision about potentially granting mass-murderer Nathan Dunlap a reprieve.
• CT-Gov: The DGA-backed Connecticut Forward goes after Republican Tom Foley on gun control.
• FL-Gov: NextGen Climate once again links Republican Gov. Rick Scott to corrupt energy companies. The Florida GOP features Scott praising his record.
• GA-Gov: The Coalition for Georgia's Future praises Republican Gov. Nathan Deal for helping increase the number of women-owned businesses. Democrat Jason Carter pushes back, accuses Deal of ignoring rural Georgia.
• HI-Gov: The RGA hits Democrat David Ige for voting to create a disastrous healthcare exchange system. The narrator accuses Ige of being too much like outgoing Democratic Gov. Neil Abercrombie, the man Ige unseated in an August primary.
• IL-Gov: Two new spots from Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn (here and here). The first contrasts Quinn and Republican Bruce Rauner on education. Quinn's second spot features Michelle Obama praising the governor's record. Rauner's ad features of news clips describing Quinn as corrupt.
• MA-Gov: A Spanish spot from Democrat Martha Coakley.
• ME-Gov: The DGA-backed Maine Forward continues to describe Republican Gov. Paul LePage as an unproductive extremist.
• MN-Gov: Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton.
• NE-Gov: Democrat Chuck Hassebrook has two new spots (here and here). The first is positive, while the second hits Republican Pete Ricketts on education cuts.
• PA-Gov: Two new spots from Democrat Tom Wolf (here and here) both hitting Republican Gov. Tom Corbett over the state economy.
• RI-Gov: Democrat Gina Raimondo.
• WI-Gov: EMILY's List recently reserved $1.2 million to support Democrat Mary Burke, and they've begun their new ad campaign. EMILY's spot features a doctor calling for Republican Gov. Scott Walker to get out of her patients' private lives and stop trying to outlaw abortion.
Walker wasted no time airing a response ad. Speaking to the camera, Walker describes himself as pro-life but someone who wants women to be safe and to consider her options. He claims that the bill he supports does still leave the final decision about whether or not to get an abortion to a woman and her doctor.
Burke also has a spot. It features news reports describing how other Midwestern states are seeing their economies significantly improve, but not Wisconsin. The narrator then blames Walker for the state's sluggish growth.
• AR-02: Republican French Hill features a woman praising him for helping her start her business.
• AZ-02: Americans for Responsible Solutions spends another $199,000 against Republican Martha McSally. McSally herself has two new spots (here and here). The first emphasizes McSally's military career while portraying Democratic Rep. Ron Barber as weak on terrorism; the second is a Spanish-language spot.
• AZ-09: Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema emphasizes her support for Social Security and Medicare programs. Republican opponent Wendy Rogers has two new spots (here and here). The first is positive and stresses Rogers' military record, while the second accuses Sinema of being weak on terrorism.
• CO-06: Democrat Andrew Romanoff has three ads (here, here, and here). The first goes after Republican Rep. Mike Coffman for voting to make college for expensive. Romanoff also has two Spanish-language ads.
• CT-04: Democratic Rep. Jim Himes.
• CT-05: Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty hits Republican Mark Greenberg on Social Security, featuring a long quote by Greenberg calling the program a failure.
• HI-01: VoteVets praises Democrat Mark Takai.
• ME-02: Republican Bruce Poliquin accuses Democrat Emily Cain as a liberal extremist.
• MI-08: Democrat Eric Schertzing is out with his first spot, contrasting his middle class policies with Republican Mike Bishop's.
• MN-07: Republican Torrey Westrom goes biographical.
• MN-08: Republican Stewart Mills features a woman who says she and her family lost their health insurance because of Obamacare. She hits Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan for supporting the law.
• NY-19: Republican Rep. Chris Gibson accuses Democrat Sean Eldridge of being a hypocrite on fracking and campaign finance reform. A month-old poll gave Gibson a 24-point lead here, but evidently he takes the very wealthy Eldridge seriously enough to keep attacking.
• TX-23: Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego has two new ads (here and here). The first stresses Gallego's support for border security, while portraying Republican Will Hurd as weak on the issue. The second is a Spanish-language commercial contrasting the two candidates on education.
• WV-02: Democrat Nick Casey stresses his humble origins.
• WV-03: Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall's new spot stars Sen. Joe Manchin. Manchin praises Rahall as a partner in fighting the Obama Administration on coal.
• DCCC: New Democratic spots in CA-52, IA-03, IL-13, IL-17, NJ-03, NE-02, and NH-02. About half the seats are held by each party.
• House Majority PAC: Pro-Democratic ads in AZ-01, AZ-02, CA-07, CO-06, FL-26 (here and here), and MN-07. All the seats aside from CO-06 are Democratic-held.
• NRCC: New Republican ads in CO-06, NE-02, and TX-23. We also have various expenditures.
• House: A very useful tracker from Bloomberg that features independent expenditures from both parties by race.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Taniel.
