Democratic nominee Rick Weiland
Leading Off:
• SD-Sen: Until recently, national Democrats looked like they were writing off Rick Weiland's chances in the South Dakota Senate race. However, with Republican Mike Rounds mired in controversy over allegations that he helped sell off EB-5 visas to the highest bidders, the DSCC has finally taken a second look at this contest. On Tuesday, a new SurveyUSA poll came out showing a three-way race, with Rounds leading independent Larry Pressler only 35-32 and Weiland just behind at 28. Even though Weiland's in third place, he has two potential advantages: Rounds' numbers suck, and Pressler doesn't have any real money or outside support.
And now, at long last, Weiland will have some real money, because the DSCC is going on the air here—and in a very big way: The group announced that they would commit $1 million to back Weiland. South Dakota is a very inexpensive state to advertise in, and few other groups are getting involved in the state, so this money can go a very long way toward helping Weiland. The Democrats also got some good news earlier this week when Larry Lessig's Mayday PAC committed $1 million to helping Weiland as well.
Rounds finally did a little good news on EB-5 on Tuesday. A California arbiter dismissed a lawsuit alleging that when Rounds was governor, the state committed a costly breach in contract over its handling of the program. It didn't take long for Rounds to go on the air with an ad arguing that all the attacks on him over EB-5 are just lies. Rounds may hope that voters will just dismiss EB-5 now, but it doesn't look like it will go away that easily. David Montgomery of the Argus Leader takes a look at the ad: Montgomery concludes that this ruling only covered one aspect of the EB-5 matter and that this issue is by no means dead.
For his part, Pressler is using his limited budget to run an ad pledging he'll only serve one term so fundraising won't distract him. However, Weiland's allies are aware that the independent can cost them a win and they aren't going to just sit back and let Democratic voters flock to Pressler. Every Voice Action, one of the few outside groups to support Weiland until now, has just taken down its commercial hitting Rounds on EB-5 and will go up with an anti-Pressler ad instead. The new spot isn't available yet but the group's president says it will hit him for "voting against Medicare and voting against Social Security (and) the vote he skipped to take a lobbyist-funded junket to Las Vegas." In other words, this crazy three-way race is about to get a lot crazier.
3Q Fundraising:
• AR-Sen: Tom Cotton (R) $3.8 million raised
• MN-Sen: Al Franken (D-inc) $4.2 million raised, $2.75 million on hand; Mike McFadden (D) $2 million raised, $1 million on hand
• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal (R-inc) $5.1 million raised, $2.6 million on hand
Senate:
• KS-Sen, Gov, SoS: The bad news keeps pouring in for Kansas Republicans, for the most part. SurveyUSA just conducted a new poll on behalf of KSN-TV of the state's three marquee races:
• KS-Sen: Greg Orman (I): 47, Pat Roberts (R-inc): 42, Randall Batson (Lib): 4
• KS-Gov: Paul Davis (D): 47, Sam Brownback (R-inc): 42, Keen Umbehr (Lib): 4 (Sept.: 47-40-5 Davis)
• KS-SoS: Kris Kobach (R-inc): 48, Jean Schodorf (D): 43 (Sept.: 46-43 Schodorf)
SUSA's September Senate poll included Democrat Chad Taylor, who has since officially come off the ballot. Back then, Orman held a slim 37-36 edge while Taylor took 10. So it looks like the predictable GOP attacks tying Orman to Obama haven't succeeded (or at least haven't succeeded as much as Republican would like). And the hits on Davis regarding his little
strip club jaunt and
unfortunate choice of acting talent in his first TV ad don't seem to have had much of an impact, either.
But the secretary of state results are frustrating, since there's no clear reason why Kobach should have retaken the lead, particularly since he received so much negative press for his attempts to keep Taylor on the ballot. However, a recent Suffolk poll also had Kobach up 5 (45-40), so perhaps he does have a bit of a lead. He definitely has a huge fundraising advantage: As of the last round of reports in late July, he had nearly $200,000 on hand while Schodorf had just $11,000. So she'll need Orman and Davis to finish strong and carry her with them.
Unfortunately, CNN/ORC's new results are not quite as sanguine for Team Blue:
• KS-Sen: Roberts: 49, Orman 48
• KS-Gov: Davis 49, Brownback 49
These numbers are well outside the mainstream, though. The proportion of undecideds is incredibly low, and CNN failed to include the Libertarians in either race. What's more, Brownback has never been anywhere close to 49 in a normal poll: Leave out YouGov and Rasmussen and his best score ever was just 43 percent—in his own internal. CNN also gives Brownback a 48-49 favorability rating and Roberts a 50-45 score. No other pollster has found them that popular.
• NC-Sen: Here's an odd detail: The NRSC hasn't booked any airtime in North Carolina for the final three weeks of the election. Of course, they could come in late, and there's other outside GOP money sloshing around, but still...
• Polling: Do you like polls? You'd better like polls.
• AR-Sen: Opinion Research Associates (D): (conducted for the Arkansas Democratic Party): Mark Pryor (D-inc) 45, Tom Cotton (R) 42
• GA-Sen: SurveyUSA: Michelle Nunn (D) 45, David Perdue (R) 46 (Sept.: Perdue 46-45)
• LA-Sen: Øptimus (R): Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 38, Bill Cassidy (R): 36, Rob Maness (R): 18
• MI-Sen: Wenzel (R): Gary Peters (D) 47, Terri Lynn Land (R) 44
• NC-Sen: Rasmussen: Kay Hagan (D-inc) 46, Thom Tillis (R) 44 (Sept.: Hagan 45-39)
• NC-Sen: Suffolk: Hagan 47, Tillis 45 (Aug.: Hagan 45-43)
Gubernatorial:
• MA-Gov, 09: The student run-Emerson Polling Society takes a look at these two races and I'll say this: This group is either going to look like geniuses or fools on Nov. 5. In the gubernatorial contest, they find Republican Charlie Baker leading Democrat Martha Coakley 45-39. This is the largest lead Baker has ever posted in a public poll: Until now, he's never led by more than 3 points. Indeed, a new MassInc poll finds Coakley up 41-39, a result much more in line with what most groups have found.
But all this is nothing compared to Emerson's survey on the 9th District, a race that has been virtually ignored until now. They find unheralded Republican John Chapman posting a 44-39 lead over Democratic Rep. Bill Keating in this 56-43 Obama district. Neither party has spent any real money in this contest but there is one other sign that Keating could be in trouble. The Boston Globe recently reported that the congressman was telling lobbying firms that he needed help, while Republicans have been asking for resources here. Keating is alluding to a Democratic poll that shows him up double-digits but we don't have anything beyond that.
In any case, it's pretty likely that if Keating were in nearly as much danger as Emerson thinks, we would have seen some outside Democratic spending long ago. However, while this poll is hard to believe on its face, this contest may be a bit more interesting than it has looked. It will be worth keeping an eye out to see if outside groups get involved or if this race gets forgotten again.
• Polling: Gubernatorial polls! Get your tootsie frootsie gubernatorial polls!:
• AR-Gov: Opinion Research Associates (D): (conducted for the Arkansas Democratic Party) Mike Ross (D) 45, Asa Hutchinson (R) 41
• CT-Gov: Quinnipiac: Dan Malloy (D-inc) 43, Tom Foley (R) 43 (Sept: Foley 46-40).
• GA-Gov: SurveyUSA: Jason Carter (D) 44, Nathan Deal (R-inc) 46 (Sept: Carter 45-44)
House:
• CA-52: SurveyUSA returns to this swing seat and they find Republican Carl DeMaio leading Democratic Rep. Scott Peters 48-45. In their poll three weeks ago Peters held a 47-46 lead.
This wouldn't be a SurveyUSA poll if the crosstabs made sense, but even for them this survey is weird. To begin with, Peters somehow leads among white voters 48-46 but still is behind. What's really odd though is that SurveyUSA has 43 percent of voters over the age of 65. According to the U.S. Census 13 percent of the district is over 65. Yeah seniors tend to vote in disproportionate numbers in midterms and of course residents under 18 can't vote, but this still seems off. This isn't necessarily hurting Peters: DeMaio only carries this group 48-47, compared to his 51-43 lead among 50 to 64 year olds. Even so, it's worth noting.
• KS-02: Democrat Margie Wakefield's race against Republican Rep. Lynn Jenkins in this Romney 56-42 Topeka-area seat hasn't gotten too much attention, but Wakefield is arguing that she has a real shot here. Wakefield has released an Anzalone-Listz Grove poll showing her down only 48-43, an improvement from her 49-42 deficit in July. The poll has Democrat Paul Davis carrying this district 52-41 in the gubernatorial contest, and independent Greg Orman up 49-40 in the Senate race. Both these numbers are plausible: This district is about 8 points to the left of the entire state and if Davis and Orman are as competitive as most polls show, they're almost certainly racking up big margins in KS-02.
National groups have yet to get involved here and this contest still looks tough for Democrats. However, Wakefield has been a decent fundraiser. A year ago we could have completely dismissed the idea that Jenkins would lose, but after watching Jenkins' fellow Republicans Gov. Sam Brownback and Sen. Pat Roberts plunge in the polls, this race isn't so easy to write off.
• MI-01: Michigan's 1st district has always been somewhat low on the list of potential Democratic pickups this year. While Republican incumbent Dan Benishek barely won in 2012 and the Dems got a good recruit in the form of Jerry Cannon, a former National Guard Major General turned Kalkaska County Sheriff, this is still a 45 percent Obama district. And on Wednesday it fell a bit further down the totem poll: The DCCC just announced they're canceling $450k in ad buys in the Traverse City market. This isn't a handoff to an outside group, but pretty clear triage, as the House Majority PAC already dropped MI-01 in late September.
• NJ-03: It looks like Republicans are indeed worried about losing New Jersey's swingy 3rd District. The conservative American Action Network, run by Saudi lobbyist Norm Coleman, is dumping in $1.1 million for the final week of the race to aid Republican Tom MacArthur against Democrat Aimee Belgard, with the bulk of that going to TV.
It's a surprising move, given that the wealthy MacArthur has heavily self-funded his campaign, so evidently, he still needs further outside help. But with AAN's money going to the expensive Philly media market, that extra mil won't go as far as MacArthur's own cash would, since campaigns get cheaper advertising rates than outside groups.
Grab Bag:
• Redistricting: On Tuesday, a federal court ordered Virginia to redraw its congressional map for the 2016 elections. There's a good chance the new map will look a lot different than the current one: Last time the GOP had complete control of the redistricting pen, but now Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe is here to veto any GOP gerrymander. In a new post, Stephen Wolf offers some scenarios describing what the new map could look like and which incumbents may benefit or suffer as a result.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: American Crossroads throws another $956,000 at Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. On the Democratic side, Put Alaska First spends $555,000.
• AR-Sen: The NRSC again accuses Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor of changing during his 12 years in Washington. Spoiler alert: They don't think he's changed for the better. Also on the GOP side Tom Cotton offers some platitudes about being a leader while Crossroads GPS spends another $460,000, while Freedom Partners goes up with $458,000.
• CO-Sen: Freedom Partners again portrays Democratic Sen. Mark Udall as a blind Obama loyalist: The size of the buy is $710,000. Also for the GOP, Jeb Bush once again appears in a U.S. Chamber of Commerce ad, where he says some generic nice things about Republican Cory Gardner. Bush recently did a similar ad in Spanish here.
• IA-Sen: American Crossroads shells out another $730,000 against Democrat Bruce Braley.
• KY-Sen: Crossroads GPS spends $1,216,000 against Democrat Alison Grimes (here and here).
• MI-Sen: AFSCME spends $500,000 for Democrat Gary Peters.
• MN-Sen: Democratic Sen. Al Franken.
• NC-Sen: Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan calls out Republican Thom Tillis for running a spot claiming she would let soldiers die in vain. Hagan describes how she has family serving in the military and will "stand up to anyone when it comes to protecting our military." Also for Team Blue, we find out that a recent NEA spot ran for $1,206,000.
On the GOP side, Crossroads GPS features a 2008 clip of Hagan hitting then-Sen. Liddy Dole of voting with Bush 92 percent of the time: Hagan declares no one should ever vote with the president that much whether they support him or not. Crossroads then paints Hagan as an Obama drone.
• NH-Sen: Republican Scott Brown defends himself from Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's attacks on his women's health record. Brown describes himself as pro-choice and claims Shaheen is running a smear campaign to hide her support for Obama.
• CO-Gov: The DGA-alligned Making Colorado Great continues to portray Republican Bob Beauprez as an extremist on women's health.
• CT-Gov: Republican Tom Foley accuses Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy of lying about jobs. The spot has several images of Malloy's nose stretching out Pinocchio style, but it (probably unintentionally) looks pretty phallic.
• FL-Gov: The Florida GOP accuses Democrat Charlie Crist of corruption.
• HI-Gov: Republican Duke Aiona features his wife, who talks about Aiona's efforts to lower the cost of living.
• IL-Gov: It's been almost seven years since Rod Blagojevich was removed from office, but Republican Bruce Rauner hopes he can still be used against Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn. Rauner's new ad accuses Quinn of serving as Blago's right hand man and continuing his legacy of corruption.
• MD-Gov: Republican Larry Hogan accuses Democrat Anthony Brown of helping preside over a failing state economy.
• ME-Gov: Independent Eliot Cutler argues Republican Gov. Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud both suck on jobs. Michaud goes positive, promoting his work protecting local shipyards.
• MI-Gov: Republican Gov. Rick Snyder defends himself from Democratic attacks on the condition of state schools.
• NE-Gov: Republican Pete Ricketts continues to present himself as a generous businessman.
• OK-Gov: Democrat Joe Dorman hits Republican Gov. Mary Fallin on education.
• PA-Gov: Republican Gov. Tom Corbett portrays Democrat Tom Wolf as dishonest.
• SC-Gov: Democrat Vincent Sheheen goes after Republican Gov. Nikki Haley on education and Medicaid funding.
• WI-Gov: Republican Gov. Scott Walker accuses Democrat Mary Burke of twisting the state's job numbers. Burke's spot goes after Walker's tax cuts, saying they help the rich but do very little for everyone else.
• AZ-02: YG Network does more Obamacare demonizing, hitting Democratic Rep. Ron Barber over it.
• FL-26: The American Action Network is the latest GOP group to portray Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia as corrupt in a new spot that's running in English and Spanish.
• GA-12: Republican Rick Allen goes after Democratic Rep. John Barrow on the debt and Obama. Meanwhile, Center Forward spends $148,000 for Barrow (here and here).
• HI-01: Democrat Mark Takai.
• IL-10: Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider portrays Republican Bob Dold(!) as a conservative extremist.
• MN-08: The DCCC once again paints Republican Stewart Mills as an out-of-touch rich guy who doesn't care about the middle class.
• ND-AL: Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer.
• NH-01: The DCCC continues to hit Republican Frank Guinta for somehow lending his campaign secret money while his personal finances were a mess.
• NY-19: Two new spots from Democrat Sean Eldridge (here and here).
• NY-23: Republican Rep. Tom Reed hits Democrat Martha Robertson over a local power plant, accusing her supporters of trying to shut it down because of their "radical ideas on global warming."
• DCCC: Various pro-Democratic expenditures.
• NRCC: New Republican spots in AZ-01, AZ-02, CA-07, GA-12, IA-03, IL-10, IL-12, ME-02, MN-07, MN-08, NY-01, and WV-03. Only IA-03 is GOP-held.
The AZ-01 ad has gotten some outside attention recently. The NRCC alleges that Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick voted against security along the Mexican border, making it easy for terrorists to sneak in. As Time points out, there's no reason to think this is happening at all. But this isn't the first time the GOP has tied border security to terrorism in its ads and it of course won't be the last.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Taniel.